Russia-Ukraine war live: Russia on course to have lost 500,000 troops by end of 2024, says UK
Ukrainian troops in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine.
LIVE – Updated at 15:44
The average daily number of Russian casualties in Ukraine rose by almost 300 during the course of 2023, the UK says.
Closing summary
15:44
The time in Kyiv is 5.30pm. Here is a roundup of the day’s news:
The Russian military is on course to lose 500,000 personnel within the next year, according to the UK’s Ministry of Defence. The MoD added that Russia was averaging 300 military casualties each day throughout 2023. It tweeted: “The average daily number of Russian casualties in Ukraine has risen by almost 300 during the course of 2023. If the numbers continue at the current rate over the next year, Russia will have lost over half a million personnel in Ukraine.”
The UK’s Ministry of Defence says Russia is continuing to struggle to establish air superiority over Ukraine. Three Russian combat jets were shot down just before Christmas and that affected ground forces’ tactical objectives later in the month, the MoD said. It added that Russia has been increasing its aerial strikes in recent days “but at a lower level than before the shootdowns”.
Russian officials in the southern border city of Belgorod have offered to evacuate worried residents – an unprecedented announcement that follows waves of fatal Ukrainian attacks. Reuters reports that the Kremlin has tried to maintain a semblance of normalcy on the home front, but the recent strikes on Belgorod have brought the conflict closer to home for Russians.
Russia says it downed four Ukrainian missiles over Moscow-annexed Crimea overnight, Agence France-Presse reports. The attack came a day after Russia said it repelled a Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea, downing 36 drones over the peninsula.
Denmark’s transfer of 19 American-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine will take place in the second quarter of 2024, once Ukrainian pilots have completed training, the defence ministry has said. The Danish ministry said in a statement: “Based on the current timetable, the donation should take place in the second quarter of 2024. It’s mainly an issue of finishing the training of Ukrainian personnel who will operate the planes.”
President Joe Biden’s top budget official stressed that there is no avenue to help Ukraine aside from Congress approving additional funding, as negotiations among US politicians remained stalled. Shalanda Young, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, said that while the Pentagon has some limited authority to help Kyiv, without new funding from Capitol Hill “that is not going to get big tranches of equipment into Ukraine”.
Reuters reports that the Kharkiv region prosecutor’s office has provided further evidence that Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles supplied by North Korea, showcasing the fragments. On Friday, a senior adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia hit Ukraine this week with missiles supplied by North Korea for the first time during its invasion.
The government of Nepal banned its citizens from travelling to Russia or Ukraine for employment after 10 young men were killed and dozens more reported missing while fighting, predominately in the Russian military. More than 200 Nepali soldiers are believed to have enlisted in the Russian army since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Nepal’s foreign ministry had said, and more than 100 of them have gone missing. A smaller number are believed to be fighting in the Ukrainian army.
14:56
Denmark’s transfer of 19 American-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine will take place in the second quarter of 2024, once Ukrainian pilots have completed training, the defence ministry has said.
The Danish ministry said in a statement.
Based on the current timetable, the donation should take place in the second quarter of 2024.
It’s mainly an issue of finishing the training of Ukrainian personnel who will operate the planes.
Denmark, which is replacing its F-16 fleet with more modern F-35 jets, announced in August that it would provide the 19 planes after securing approval from the US government.
Kyiv had long sought to obtain the fighters after heavy losses incurred by its air force, which flies mostly Russian aircraft.
The Netherlands also announced last August the transfer of F-16 to Ukraine and is currently training Ukrainian pilots but has not yet said when the 42 planes will arrive.
14:55
13:43
Reuters reports that the Kharkiv region prosecutor’s office has provided further evidence that Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles supplied by North Korea, showcasing the fragments.
On Friday, a senior adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia hit Ukraine this week with missiles supplied by North Korea for the first time during its invasion.
Dmytro Chubenko, spokesperson for the prosecutor’s office, said the missile, one of several that hit the city of Kharkiv on 2 January, was visually and technically different from Russian models.
“The production method is not very modern. There are deviations from standard Iskander missiles, which we previously saw during strikes on Kharkiv. This missile is similar to one of the North Korean missiles,” Chubenko told the media as he displayed the remnants.
He said the missile was slightly bigger in diameter than the Russian Iskander missile, while its nozzle, internal electrical windings, and rear parts were also different.
“That is why we are leaning towards the version that this may be a missile which was supplied by North Korea.”
Chubenko declined to give the missile’s exact model name.
13:03
Russia set to lose 500,000 military personnel by year end, says British MoD
12:41
The Russian military is on course to lose 500,000 personnel within the next year, according to the UK’s Ministry of Defence.
The MoD added that Russia was averaging 300 military casualties each day throughout 2023.
It tweeted: “The average daily number of Russian casualties in Ukraine has risen by almost 300 during the course of 2023.
“If the numbers continue at the current rate over the next year, Russia will have lost over half a million personnel in Ukraine.”
12:12Julian Borger
Russia has started using ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea to attack Ukraine, Washington and Kyiv have claimed, in an indication that Moscow plans to further expand its arms deals with regimes under sanctions in order to sustain its war effort.
Washington also alleged Russia was in talks with Iran to buy short-range ballistic missiles. The US intelligence assessment is that Iranian missiles have not yet arrived in Russia, but that the deal will eventually be done.
The US reports were endorsed by several Ukrainian officials, including an adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s administration, who said that Russian arms deals with Pyongyang and Tehran made the country part of a new “axis of evil of the [21st] century”.
11:40Andrew Roth
In case you missed it, the government of Nepal banned its citizens from travelling to Russia or Ukraine for employment after 10 young men were killed and dozens more reported missing while fighting, predominately in the Russian military.
More than 200 Nepali soldiers are believed to have enlisted in the Russian army since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Nepal’s foreign ministry had said, and more than 100 of them have gone missing. A smaller number are believed to be fighting in the Ukrainian army.
“Work permits for Russia and Ukraine have been temporarily halted until further arrangements are made to minimise potential risks and losses for Nepali nationals entering these war-ravaged countries,” Kabiraj Upreti, a director at the department of foreign employment, told the state broadcaster RSS.
Opening summary
11:34
Hello and thanks for joining the Guardian’s continuing coverage of the war in Ukraine.
President Joe Biden’s top budget official has warned of the rapidly diminishing time that US politicians have to replenish aid for Ukraine, as the fate of that money to Kyiv remains tied up in congressional negotiations over immigration.
Shalanda Young said that while the Pentagon had some limited authority to help Kyiv, “that is not going to get big tranches of equipment into Ukraine”.
More on that shortly, first here’s a summary of the day’s other main news:
Russia hit Ukraine with missiles supplied by North Korea for the first time during its invasion, a senior Kyiv official said, corroborating an earlier assertion by the White House. Grant Shapps, the British defence secretary, said: “We’ll make sure North Korea pays a high price for supporting Russia”.
Russian air defence units downed missiles and drones in a series of night-time attacks over the Crimea peninsula and the western part of the Black Sea, Russia’s defence ministry said early on Saturday. There was no report on the incident from the Ukrainian military, which does not consistently disclose its actions in Crimea.
The government of Nepal has banned its citizens from travelling to Russia or Ukraine for employment after 10 young men were killed and dozens more reported missing while fighting, predominantly in the Russian military. More than 200 Nepali soldiers are believed to have enlisted in the Russian army since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Nepal’s foreign ministry has said.
A British defence intelligence update on Ukraine noted that “over the last week, ground combat has continued to be characterised by either a static frontline or very gradual, local Russian advances in key sectors”.
Russian officials in the southern border city of Belgorod offered to evacuate residents after waves of fatal Ukrainian attacks. Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov’s offer came a day after overnight shelling wounded at least two people and knocked out glass from high-rise buildings.
Ukraine released images of what it said was a Russian Kinzhal ballistic missile, which it claimed earlier in the week to have downed using the US Patriot anti-aircraft system. The Guardian was not able to verify the claim.
11:13
White House official warns of ‘dire’ situation on Ukraine aid
10:09
President Joe Biden’s top budget official stressed that there is no avenue to help Ukraine aside from Congress approving additional funding, as negotiations among US politicians remain stalled.
Shalanda Young, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, said that while the Pentagon has some limited authority to help Kyiv, without new funding from Capitol Hill “that is not going to get big tranches of equipment into Ukraine”.
Young detailed the impact that a lack of additional US aid would have on Ukraine aside from its military capabilities, such as Kyiv being able to pay its civil servants to ensure that its government can continue to function amid Russia’s barrage.
Yes, Kyiv might have a little time from other donors to make sure they can keep their war footing, keep the civil service, but what happens in the [European Union], in other Nato allies, if the US pulls out their support? I’m very concerned that it’s not just the United States’ resources that are necessary for Kyiv to stop Putin. It is: what message does that send to the rest of the world? And what will their decisions be if they see the United States not step up to the plate?”
Young added that the situation was “dire” and “certainly, we’ve bypassed my comfort level” in the time that has gone by since Congress approved new funding for Ukraine.
Russia offers to relocate residents in border city
10:07
Russian officials in the southern border city of Belgorod have offered to evacuate worried residents – an unprecedented announcement that follows waves of fatal Ukrainian attacks.
Reuters reports that the Kremlin has tried to maintain a semblance of normalcy on the home front, but the recent strikes on Belgorod have brought the conflict closer to home for Russians.
Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov’s assurance that scared civilians can relocate represents the furthest-reaching measure taken by any major Russian city since Moscow ordered the invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.
He said:
I see several appeals on social media where people write: we are scared, help us get to a safe place.
Of course we will! We have already moved several families.
His offer came a day after overnight shelling wounded at least two people and knocked out glass from high-rise buildings, prompting widespread concern from residents.
The bout of shelling prompted city officials earlier on Friday to urge residents to secure their windows with tape to prevent shattering from blast waves – a measure used widely across Ukraine.
Ukrainian shelling in Belgorod less than a week ago killed 25 people in the worst attack on Russian civilians since the conflict began.
10:06
Russia says it downed four Ukrainian missiles over Moscow-annexed Crimea overnight, Agence France-Presse reports.
The attack came a day after Russia said it repelled a Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea, downing 36 drones over the peninsula.
The Russian defence ministry said:
Air defence on duty intercepted and destroyed four Ukrainian missiles over the Crimea peninsula.
Ukraine has targeted Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, since the start of Moscow’s full-scale offensive.
Kyiv said it had targeted a command post near Sevastopol earlier this week.
Both sides have escalated attacks in recent days, as the conflict nears the two-year mark.
10:05
Here are some of the latest images coming through from Ukraine:
10:00
The UK’s Ministry of Defence says Russia is continuing to struggle to establish air superiority over Ukraine.
Three Russian combat jets were shot down just before Christmas and that affected ground forces’ tactical objectives later in the month, the MoD said.
It added that Russia has been increasing its aerial strikes in recent days “but at a lower level than before the shootdowns”.