Russia may gain advantage on front, but does not fully break defense of Ukrainian army

Russia may achieve operational successes on the front, but it will not completely break the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (photo: Getty Images)

In the coming weeks, Russian forces are expected to gain significant tactical advantages on the front, while Ukraine awaits the arrival of Western weapons following the approval of a military aid package from the US. However, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to completely defeat the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

In December 2023, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told US House Speaker Mike Johnson that without additional US security aid, the Ukrainian forces would be able to hold out until March or April 2024.

ISW believes that the arrival of American aid to the front in the coming weeks will allow Ukrainian troops to address current issues with material and technical support and suspend Russian offensive operations. Instead, the Russian army will intensify efforts to destabilize the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and try to consolidate its position until the arrival of US security aid in Ukraine.

Two Ukrainian intelligence officers told the Financial Times that Russian forces aim to use current offensive operations and missile strikes against Ukraine to prepare the battlefield for an expected large-scale Russian offensive operation at the end of May or in June.

A Western official told the Financial Times that Russian forces may achieve further tactical breakthroughs in the coming weeks but will not seize Ukraine entirely.

“Russian forces have opportunities to make significant tactical gains in the Avdiivka area and pursue an operationally significant objective with the seizure of Chasiv Yar; but, neither of these efforts is likely to develop into an operationally significant penetration in the near term, let alone cause the collapse of the Ukrainian defensive line in the Donetsk region,” the ISW report said.

Russian advance in Donetsk region

Due to the delay in providing military assistance to Ukraine by the US and Western partners, the Defense Forces do not have enough weapons to resist the Russian army. In February, the Russians captured the city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region and subsequently began to actively advance to the west and northwest, quickly capturing villages.

Over the past two months, the enemy has captured Orlivka, Tonenke, and Novobakhmutivka. Recently, the enemy partially occupied the village of Ocheretyne. The Ukrainian Armed Forces control two-thirds of the settlement, and fierce fighting continues in this area as the military prevents the Russians from advancing further into the region.

Meanwhile, in the Bakhmut direction, the aggressors are trying to bypass the town of Chasiv Yar and create conditions for the operational encirclement of the Defense Forces.