Russia intensifies attacks to achieve success before Western aid arrives

Russia has intensified attacks on the front in anticipation of Western assistance (photo: Getty Images)

In the past month, Russian forces have noticeably increased the number of ground attacks in eastern Ukraine. This indicates the Russian military command’s intention to consolidate gains before the arrival of Western military aid to bolster the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report cited information from Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Group (OSG), who reported a significant increase in the number of clashes in eastern Ukraine from 84 on May 8 to 146 on May 9. According to him, most of the fighting took place in the area of responsibility of the Khortytsia OSG – the territory from the Kharkiv region to the border zone of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

The Ministry of Defence of the UK reported that from March to April 2024, the number of Russian attacks increased by 17%, and over 75% of reports of ground attacks were recorded in the direction of Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Marinka. During the same period, the number of Russian attacks near Chasiv Yar increased by 200%.

Voloshyn suggested that the current intensification of Russian attacks is a result of the drying of the ground after the spring season, which allows for faster mechanized maneuvering.

Another reason cited is that Russian forces are trying to take advantage of the relative weakness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces while they await Western aid.

“ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will maintain the high rate of attacks across eastern Ukraine in order to make gains before the arrival of Western aid in Ukraine, which will likely stymie Russia forces’ ability to maintain the high rate of attacks and tactical gains that they are currently able to pursue,” the report said.

Frontline situation

At the end of April, the US approved a military aid package for Ukraine totaling $60 billion, intended to be delivered by the end of the current year.

The US will soon announce the delivery of new arms packages for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Pentagon aims to return to pre-war levels of arms supply.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the arrival of Western aid will enable the Armed Forces to halt Russia’s advance in the east.