UFC Fight Night 237: Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega odds, picks and predictions

Jul 16, 2022; Elmont, New York, USA; Brian Ortega (red gloves) fights Yair Rodriguez (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at UBS Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

In a 5-round featherweight bout in the co-main event, Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 237 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 95 — at Arena CDMX in Mexico City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 237: Rodriguez vs. Ortega odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Rodriguez (16-4-0) | Ortega (15-3-0)

Rodriguez suffered a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 290 in a championship bout, losing the strap he earned at UFC 284 with his submission victory over Josh Emmett in Feb. 2023. He did score a 1st-round KO/TKO in the main event in July 2022 against Ortega in the 1st matchup.

Ortega has suffered consecutive losses to Volkanovski at UFC 266 for the featherweight title and also got knocked out by Rodriguez last time out. He suffered a shoulder injury while grappling, and Ortega hasn’t been in the octagon since.

Rodriguez holds a 2-inch reach advantage and a slight 4.63-to-4.19 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Rodriguez is a lot more accurate with his strikes, too, landing 51.68%, to just 40.08% for Ortega.

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UFC Fight Night 237: Rodriguez vs. Ortega odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.

• Fight result (2-way line): Rodriguez -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Ortega +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
• Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +130)
• Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)

UFC Fight Night 237: Rodriguez vs. Ortega picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

RODRIGUEZ (-150) is worth playing straight up as the moderate favorite. He dismantled Ortega (+125) in the 1st meeting, and it wasn’t even close. Yes, Ortega was injured in that fight, but ultimately he was knocked out, not submitted.

In addition, after a lengthy layoff from the octagon, it’s fair to question the cardio of a fighter. Ortega hasn’t fought since July 2022, while Rodriguez has 2 championship bouts during that same span. Back the fighter who has been more active.

Over/Under (O/U)

In addition to playing Rodriguez straight up, it’s always a good idea to look to the Method of Victory for a better payoff.

If you don’t want to declare a winner, but simply want action, KO/TKO/DQ (+125), no matter who wins the fight, is an attractive play. However, RODRIGUEZ BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+175) to get the job done for a 2nd straight time against Ortega is also an attractive play.

No: Will the fight go the distance? (-210) is a little on the expensive side, but UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+130) is worth a roll of the dice. We saw the last fight end in Round 1, and at plus-money, there is a lot of wiggle room here.

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: UFC Fight Night 237: Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega odds, picks and predictions