Voters in one seat about to set the tone for politics across the country

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Voters in the outer Melbourne seat of Dunkley head to the polls tomorrow for a highly anticipated byelection.

The electorate, which sits on the Mornington Peninsula and covers suburbs including Frankston, Carrum Downs, Langwarrin and Sandhurst, is currently vacant following the passing of popular local member Peta Murphy, who died in December from breast cancer.

While only one seat is up for grabs, the result will reverberate across the political spectrum with the next federal election little more than a year away.

This is what you need to know about the 2024 Dunkley byelection.

What date is the Dunkley byelection?

The Dunkley byelection will be held on Saturday, March 2. Early voting has already started, while polls on the day open at 8am and close at 6pm.

Who are the candidates for the Dunkley byelection?

The two main candidates for the byelection are Labor’s Jodie Belyea and Nathan Conroy from the Liberals.

Belyea, the founder of a local volunteer group that offers health and wellbeing programs for vulnerable women, was approached about running by Murphy about a year ago and the former member’s support helped her win preselection.

Conroy is the current mayor of Frankston. He moved to Australia from Ireland aged 19, became the general manager of an inner-Melbourne bowling club a few years later, and was elected to the council in 2020.

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What are the key issues in the byelection?

The cost of living is dominating the byelection. That comes on the back of a string of interest rate rises, and surging then slowing inflation.

In particular, the vote is being framed as something of an early litmus test on how the government’s reworked stage 3 tax cuts have been received by the electorate.

Unlike the previous iteration of stage 3, the new policy gives all taxpayers a cut, and shifts the bulk of the benefit from the country’s biggest earners to those on low and middle incomes.

However, the opposition has attacked the rework as a broken promise, although they also voted for the legislation in both houses of parliament.

Another topic – somewhat related to the cost of living – that may play a role is that of gambling advertising.

Former member Murphy was a passionate advocate for a complete ban on betting ads, citing the harm it caused, particularly to vulnerable people who can’t afford it, and Belyea has committed to championing that cause if elected.

The role of political advertising is also emerging as a flashpoint, with the tactics of right-wing lobbyists Advance Australia criticised by the government.

The conservative group has rolled out a high-profile attack campaign against Labor, particularly targeting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, including with the untrue claim he paid for lawyers to argue for the release of more than 100 criminals from immigration detention.

The Liberal Party has distanced itself from the campaign, which Albanese has labelled “misinformation” that is “designed to frighten and scare people”.

What are the polls saying about Dunkley and what will the result be?

A tight contest is expected – the seat could be decided by only one or two per cent.

Murphy first won Dunkley in 2019 with a margin of 2.7 per cent, which she extended to 6.3 per cent in 2022, so Labor appears to have a bit of a buffer to work with.

However, the seat has been won by both major parties in the past, and it’s hard to tell how much of the 2022 margin will carry over to tomorrow, or whether it was largely down to factors like Murphy’s own personal popularity or a protest vote against then-prime minister Scott Morrison.

The polls are pointing to a nailbiter. One, by YouGov on Monday, put the Liberals slightly ahead on the two-party preferred count 51-49.

However, it said the overwhelming support for the government’s new right to disconnect laws in the electorate could swing the result towards Labor – a whopping 83 per cent of surveyed voters in Dunkley support the policy, which Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has pledged to overturn.

Roy Morgan, meanwhile, said on Monday that federal Labor’s two-party preferred support in Victoria stands at 51.5 per cent. But how relevant a state-wide result is to one specific seat is questionable.

What we do know is that, while a first-term government losing a seat is rare, byelections typically feature a swing away from the sitting government – Labor winning Aston off the Liberals in a byelection early this term was a historical anomaly.

This will likely be a very close contest, and both major parties will try to spin the result – win or lose – in their own favour.