Republican Chances of Taking Senate From Democrats in 2024
Republicans Chances of Taking Senate in 2024
The Republican Party is strongly favored to take back control of the Senate in November according to the odds offered by a leading bookmaker.
On May 2, UK based bookie Betfair had odds of the election resulting in GOP Senate control at 2/5 (71.4 percent) against 2/1 (33.3 percent) for the Democrats retaining control of the upper chamber. The odds come six-months out from the key elections that will determine control of the White House, Senate and House on November 5.
There are currently 51 Senators who are aligned with the Democrats in the Senate, including three independents, against 49 Republicans, giving a wafer-thin majority. The GOP is hoping to win back control after failing to do so in November 2022, when an anticipated ‘red wave’ failed to materialize leading to the Republicans actually losing a seat.
For the presidential race Betfair also had former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican candidate, narrowly ahead of President Joe Biden. The incumbent was given odds of 7/5 (41.7 percent) against 6/5 (46.2 percent) for his GOP challenger.
However, while favoring Trump to win the Electoral College, Betfair suggested Biden is on track to win the popular vote giving him a 2/5 (71.4 percent) chance of achieving this against 4/1 (20 percent) for the Republican.
Speaking to Newsweek Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “Despite his legal woes, Donald Trump remains the punters’ favorite to win the White House according to Betfair Exchange punters. His odds remain a favorable 6/5, while President Biden is close behind at 7/5.
“Republicans seem set to control the Senate after the next election, with odds of 2/5. The odds of the Democrats keeping hold of the upper house trail behind at 2/1. Whoever wins the Presidential election will need support in the Senate, as has become clear in recent months as Senators wrangled with President Biden’s funding for Ukraine amongst other issues.”
Newsweek contacted the offices of Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for comment by email at 8 a.m. ET on Friday.
Despite what is widely regarded as a favorable map, Republican hopes of retaking the Senate seemed to take a blow in recent polling, which shows Democratic candidates ahead in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
For Arizona a poll of 1,000 voters conducted between March 12-15 put Democratic Senate hopeful Rep. Ruben Gallego at 44 percent compared to 40 percent for Kari Lake, a Trump aligned Republican. Similarly, in Michigan Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former House GOP Rep. Mike Rogers in a direct contest by 41 percent to 39 percent according to a poll of 1,000 voters.
A poll in Pennsylvania shows incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey ahead of Republican challenger Dave McCormick 45 percent to 41 percent. The survey of 1,000 voters was conducted between March 10-13.
In better news for the GOP, a recent survey put Texas Sen. Ted Cruz on track to defeat the challenge from Democratic Rep. Colin Allred and secure reelection.
The survey from Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin put Cruz at 46 percent against 33 percent for Allred, with another seven percent saying they would vote for someone else and 15 percent expressed no preference.
Democrats won back control of the Senate in 2020 for the first time in six years, gaining three seats and winning the vice presidency for the tiebreaking vote. They increased their seats by one in the 2022 midterm elections.
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