Don't expect Astros' Jose Abreu to break out of slump anytime soon

Houston Astros first base Jose Abreu (79)

The nadir of Jose Abreu’s career may have come on Tuesday night.

Abreu had a perfect opportunity in the top of the tenth inning that night — the ghost runner was on second with one out. Instead, the Astros pinch-hit for Abreu, bringing in Victor Caratini to attempt to drive in that run.

Changes were made on Wednesday. Abreu was dropped down to the eighth spot in the lineup due to his struggles. He did pick up his first RBI on a sacrifice fly in the fourth inning, but Abreu was 0-for-3, grounding into a double play and striking out. He has batted just .081/.146/.081 in 41 plate appearances with three singles on the year. This follows a disappointing first season in Houston where Abreu posted a career-worst .237/.296/.383 batting line with 18 homers and 23 doubles in 594 PA.

Based on his batted ball metrics, there is no reason to expect Abreu to break out of his early season malaise. His 85.1 MPH average exit velocity is in the 12th percentile. His 16 percent hard-hit rate is in the second percentile. Abreu’s .101/.135/.119 expected slash line ranks in the first percentile in each category. His entire batted ball profile is painted blue, showing how cold he has been. Those struggles prompted Michael Shapiro of the Houston Chronicle to speculate that first base prospect Joey Loperfido may reach the majors sooner than expected.

Abreu is going to have some leeway. His track record suggests that he is the run producer the Astros need. The Astros’ first baseman was a prolific run producer during his tenure with the White Sox. He had driven in at least 100 runs six times in his previous 10 years in the majors. Plus, he is a three-time All-Star, the 2014 AL Rookie of the Year and the 2020 AL MVP. He is also starting the second season of his three-year, $58 million contract. His salary alone will ensure that he receives every opportunity to get on track.

However, Abreu is 37 years old. His bat has slowed down, and he is struggling to catch up to the fastballs he would have driven in the recent past. Father Time has caught up to Abreu, and he simply has nothing left.

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