Poll: Trump leads Biden in seven swing states, RFK Jr could hurt Dems
- Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden by single digits in seven swing states
- Trump won nearly all the swing states in 2016 and lost nearly all of them in 2020
- Poll shows independent candidate RFK Jr. is more a spoiler for Biden than Trump
Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in seven of the states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
With single digit leads, voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin say if the election were held today they would cast their ballot for the former president over the incumbent, according to a new poll from The Hill/Emerson College.
The survey also reveals that independent longshot candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is playing a bigger spoiler to Biden than to Trump.
North Carolina has the largest spread showing Trump with a five percent advantage, though it is still within the margin of error 47 percent to 42 percent. Trump fares second best in Arizona, where he is ahead of Biden by four points (44 percent to 48 percent).
Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden by single digits in seven swing states, according to a new The Hill/Emerson College poll released on Tuesday
Trump won nearly all the swing states listed in the poll in 2016, with the exception of Nevada, and lost nearly all of them in 2020. The results in 2024 will come down to who wins in these seven states
In Georgia, where Trump is facing criminal charges for election subversion in 2020, the former president is at 47 percent compared to Biden’s 44 percent and the nine percent still undecided.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin yielded the same results among voters in those swing states with 47 percent for Trump, 45 percent for Biden and eight percent unsure which they would prefer if the election were today.
And in Michigan and Nevada, Trump is only ahead by one percentage point at 45 percent to 44 percent in both battleground states where 11 percent of registered voters in each says they are still undecided if it was a head-to-head matchup between the 45th and 46th president.
Meanwhile, if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is added to the mix, Biden’s chances for reelection in 2024 narrow.
Take Nevada, for example, where Trump slips from 45 percent to 42 percent when third-party candidates are also considered by poll respondents. But Biden fell from 44 percent to 37 percent – a three percent dip compared to seven percent for the current president.
Eight percent of voters in Nevada say they would vote for RFK Jr. in 2024 and three percent are for other third-party candidates.
Another good example is Georgia, where Trump slipped by just two percent when other candidates were weighed but Biden’s chances fell by five percent as RFK Jr. siphoned off five percent support total and ‘other’ took another three percent from the frontrunners.
Kennedy was running as a Democrat earlier in the 2024 election cycle before changing strategies and instead launching a bid for president on an independent ticket.
The poll also shows that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (pictured) plays more of a spoiler for Biden than for Trump
Holding a leg-up in swing states six months ahead of November’s election is a good sign for Trump as these states ultimately determined the winner in 2016, 2020 and will do the same in 2024 with what will likely be a razor-thin race outside of the battleground states.
In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The only swing state he didn’t nab that year was Nevada.
Just four years later, however, Trump lost to Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He still didn’t pick up Nevada but did still win in North Carolina.
The former president maintains that widespread voter fraud and interference by Democrats is what led to his 2020 loss and insists Biden’s win was not legitimate.
Trump already says if he loses in 2024, it’s because of voter fraud.
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