RBC Heritage picks 2024: It's time for Tommy Fleetwood to get the monkey off his back

Historically, Harbour Town was a nice “come down” week after the Masters, for the players, for the fans, for the bettors. Sadly, those days are over in the new signature event world.

We’re not really complaining, though. Any time we can get a great field on a compelling golf course is a plus, and that’s exactly what we have this week in the RBC Heritage on Hilton Head Island, which never disappoints.

Our betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Memorial Park, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well. His insights will help our betting content immensely, though Mayo remains on a bit of a heater—going on a 12-3-0 run on matchup bets, plus hitting Akshay Bhatia (66-1) two weeks ago (as did Hennessey and our tour caddie).

Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2024 RBC Heritage.

RBC Heritage picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions 

Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Tommy Fleetwood (20-1, Bet365) — All the hard work Tommy has put into his golf game continues to pay off—with a T-3 at the Masters and a T-7 at the Valero. He’s got all the shots at the moment, and I think he finally gets that elusive first PGA Tour win this week.

Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Shane Lowry (45-1, BetMGM) — Another week, another sacrifice to the money pit known as Shane Lowry. The Irishman saved his worst for Augusta National, losing an unfathomable eight strokes with his putter. For perspective, that’s 16 strokes worse on the greens than Ludvig Aberg. In classic Lowry fashion he led all players who saw the weekend in approach, and even when you take out his two hole-outs and normalize those numbers, he still finished top 10. In theory, the smaller greens should help mitigate his putting woes, which it looks like has been accomplished in the past. In six starts at Harbour Town, Lowry as only dropped strokes to the field one time which has led to top-10 finishes in three of his past five appearances.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Si Woo Kim (35-1, FanDuel) — Kim had gained strokes from approach play in nine straight starts until a modest showing last week at the Masters when he finished T-30 and lost on approach. But he’s the most accurate driver in the field, and his wedge play can help him a lot at a course with tiny greens.

Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Tommy Fleetwood (20-1, Bet365) — Tommy Fleetwood looked very comfortable on the practice tee at Harbour Town. Why wouldn’t he, Fleetwood just finished third at the Masters with an Augusta National caddie. Tenth at the Genesis and seventh at Valero just a couple of weeks ago, Tommy takes advantage of precision layouts. In four trips to Sea Pines, he has three top 25s and a top 10. With seven DP World Tour wins, I know Tommy can close on the PGA Tour.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Max Homa (28-1, Bet365) — I loved Max Homa’s comments on Sunday at the Masters—he didn’t think the week was a disappointment. He was ripping tight fairway woods around Augusta all week, which will suit him well at Harbour Town, and should set him up for win No. 7 on the PGA Tour.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Cameron Davis (66-1, BetRivers) — Davis briefly held the clubhouse lead last Friday at Augusta National, and he didn’t wilt on the weekend. His T-12 finish is his third inside the top 18 in his last four starts on tour. He’s trending nicely and he loves Harbour Town, where he’s made three career starts, made all three cuts, and finished inside the top seven twice. This feels like a wild misprice for the 29-year-old Aussie.

Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Xander Schauffele (12-1, BetMGM) — This spot for Xander Schauffele feels eerily like what we encountered in 2022. Schauffele was an incredibly popular selection at the 2022 US Open at Brookline, and he did what Xander does: play great, finish top 15, but ultimately never play a factor in the outcome of the tournament. The following week, the ‘Xander isn’t a winner’ narrative persisted, and he proceeded to win the Travelers Championship on a short, positional Pete Dye course. History will repeat itself.

Past results: The boys are officially HOT. Following Andy Lack’s correct prediction of Stephan Jager’s victory at the Houston Open (50-1), three of our experts—Stephen Hennessey, Pat Mayo and our anonymous caddie—hit on Akshay Bhatia (65-1) at the Valero Texas Open. That’s now our biggest hit of 2024, and it gives Mayo and our anonymous caddie their second wins of the year. Let’s keep it rolling at Harbour Town.

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RBC Heritage picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win 

Caddie: Byeong Hun An (66-1, Bet365) — Benny continued his resurgence with a solid week at Augusta. His well-balanced game should be nicely suited for Harbour Town. I think the price is off on Benny here.

Mayo: Tom Hoge (90-1, FanDuel) — You should always examine the rolling stats on a micro level before drawing conclusions. On the surface, Hoge ranks 55th in this field over the past 24 rounds off-the-tee. That has greatly been impacted by his career-worst driving performance at Sawgrass. In reality, Hoge’s actually gaining off-the-tee in five of his past six starts while being one of the premier iron players and putters on tour in 2024. If he doesn’t chip himself out of the tournament this is the perfect course to take advantage of his skill set.

Gdula: Harris English (60-1, FanDuel) — English is doing a lot with the short game in recent weeks, which is a bit of a concern, but the odds remain long, and the putting splits are great. With accurate driving and a sound short game, he can get in the mix this week.

Stewart: Cameron Davis (66-1, BetRivers) — Three trips to Hilton Head Island and three top-25 results. The last two starts were a third and a seventh. Cam Davis gained an average of six strokes (!) on the field in those three events tee-to-green. Davis excels at driving the ball accurately and thrives on wedge approach play. He finished T-12 at Augusta with an average Sunday afternoon. Eighteenth at API, 21st at Houston and now he’s returning to a place he loves.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Chris Kirk (66-1, BetRivers) — The round of the day on Saturday at Augusta National came from Chris Kirk, carding an impressive 68 with total control of his ball-striking. We know Kirk plays his best golf on tight, positional golf courses, and he already has a win in 2024 at a signature event.

Powers, Golf Digest: Tom Hoge (90-1, FanDuel) — Like Pat wrote, Hoge is COOKING with his irons of late. He’s gained on approach in 13 (!!!) straight measured starts, and both his driving and putting have been solid over that stretch, too. Oddly enough, he hasn’t been good at Harbour Town, even though it should suit him perfectly. Given how well he’s playing, and the fact he will be well-rested since he didn’t make it to Augusta, I can see him flipping that script this week.

Lack: Corey Conners (50-1, FanDuel) — If I was designing a golf course perfect for Corey Conners’ skill set, it would look an awfully lot like Harbour Town. Conners is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field, an elite middle-iron player, and he possesses a strong resume of success on other short, less-than-driver courses. The short game and putting is always a concern, but the Canadian significantly raises his short-game level on over-seeded Bermuda greens. Expect Conners to play a major factor come Sunday afternoon in Hilton Head.

RBC Heritage picks 2024: Players We’re Fading 

Caddie: Patrick Cantlay (10-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — He’s going to be exhausted coming off the Masters. Cantlay plays well at Harbour Town, but he didn’t show me a ton at Augusta National.

Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (18-1, FanDuel) — Tommy to win on the PGA Tour? It’ll happen someday, but you won’t find me anywhere near this outright winner number.

Gdula: Rory McIlroy (12-1, FanDuel) — Rory isn’t an ideal fit for Harbour Town and has finished just T-58 (back in 2009) and T-41 (in 2020) at this course. His recent form is solid, but the odds still consider him a co–favorite, and he should be a tick below that based on the fit and form.

Stewart: Collin Morikawa (15-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Collin Morikawa continues to tinker on the range. At the Masters, Morikawa was on the practice green testing putters with an iPad, and now he’s experimenting with different full-swing equipment options. I love Collin, but while he continues the road back to consistent major champion contender, we should all deflect our recency bias from Augusta and look elsewhere on the island.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (12-1, FanDuel) — This is probably the anti-Rory McIlroy course, removing driver out of his hands on most holes.

Powers, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (12-1, FanDuel) — No thank you.

Lack: Max Homa (22-1, DraftKings) — I was just as impressed with Max Homa’s Masters performance as anyone, but this feels like a natural letdown spot. In two appearances at Harbour Town, Homa has yet to finish in the top 40, and his resume on short, positional golf courses leaves a lot to be desired. Homa has his courses, and I’m not sure this is one of them.

RBC Heritage picks 2024: Matchups 

Caddie: Ludvig Aberg (-110) over Rory McIlroy (DraftKings) — I’ll gladly fade Rory on a less than a driver course with the state of his approach play.

Mayo: Matt Fitzpatrick (+115) over Patrick Cantlay (Bet365) — Cantlay holes out twice at Augusta and all of a sudden HE’S BACK!!!! Pump the brakes. Sure, his history at this course is great, but he’s still the guy who has lost strokes tee-to-green in four of his past six starts. Meanwhile Fitz is the defending champion with four top 25s in his past five starts. Basically, once golf left the West Coast, everything that was wrong with Fitz disappeared.

Gdula: Corey Conners (-110) over Tom Kim (FanDuel) — Neither Conners nor Kim are putting particularly well this season, so we can bank on a big tee-to-green edge for Conners, who has played well at Harbour Town. Conners has four straight top 35s here. Kim MC’d in his lone start.

Stewart: Cameron Young (-120) over Jordan Spieth (BetMGM) — In his last eight major championships, Cameron Young has five top-10 finishes. Just an incredible ball-striker, as evidenced by his third-place finish at Harbour Town two years ago. Jordan Spieth was searching on the range last week at the Masters and has been incredibly inconsistent in 2024. The pundits praise his results at Sea Pines, but how did that trip down Magnolia Lane go where he also has a great career record? Young is getting better as a ball-striker and on these small greens he will make more putts than usual.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Max Homa (-120) over Jordan Spieth (Bet365) — Spieth is clearly searching right now. Homa’s game was in total control last week … this feels like an easy one.

Powers, Golf Digest: Tom Kim (+100) over Akshay Bhatia (DraftKings) — I’ve always been a sucker for these even-money bets and this is one of those you just can’t resist. Bhatia had a solid first Masters start, but he must be mentally and physically gassed. Kim is coming in off a six-under 66 that he desperately needed to flip the momentum, as this hasn’t been a very good start to 2024. He missed the cut in his lone RBC Heritage appearance last year, but that was only because he lost three strokes on the greens. This course should fit his eye.

Lack: Chris Kirk (-120) over Jason Day (DraftKings) — Coming off a sneaky top-20 finish at the Masters, I see no reason to hop off the Chris Kirk train now that we are returning to a golf course that fits his skill set to a tee. With victories at Sea Island, Colonial and multiple top-five finishes at Waialae, Kirk always raises his baseline on shorter, middle-iron tests, which is unsurprising given his strong tee-to-green game. Day, on the other hand, is a far less trustworthy ball-striker, and he’s been struggling greatly to hit his irons with any real consistency of late.

Matchup Results from the Masters: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Zalatoris (+100) over Cantlay); Lack: 1 for 1 (Finau (-120) over Clark); Caddie: 1 for 1 (Aberg (-120) over DeChambeau); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Koepka (-120) over Hovland); Gdula: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Mayo: 12-3-0 (up 8.74 units); Lack 9-5-1 (up 3.23 units); Caddie: 9-5-0 (up 2.57 units); Gdula: 8-5-2 (up 2 units); Hennessey: 7-5-3 (up 1.08 units); Stewart: 8-7-0 (up 0.28 units); Powers: 7-7-1 (down 0.12 units)

RBC Heritage picks 2024: Top 10s 

Caddie: Ludvig Aberg (+140, DraftKings) — Aberg has proven his game translates to any course—as he did with his victory at Sea Island.

Mayo: Lucas Glover (+400, Bet365) — The Glove has reeled off three straight top 25s following his T-20 at Augusta while gaining on approach in 16 of his past 17 measured starts. The putting, horrendous. However, each of the past two times he’s gained more than one stroke on the greens he’s won the tournament. One of those being last year’s Wyndham Championship, the course with the strongest crossover to Harbour Town.

Gdula: Russell Henley (+300, FanDuel) — Henley has played here a lot (10 times) and has missed five cuts but also has five top-26 results and two top-10 finishes. Henley has finished top five in two of his last four starts thanks to good accuracy, irons and putting. That’s what he needs this week.

Stewart: Patrick Cantlay (+175, BetRivers) — Six trips to the RBC Heritage for Patrick Cantlay, and five top-seven finishes. On this par 71 scorecard, Cantlay’s career scoring average is 68.3. That places him first for any player with four starts or more at Sea Pines in this elite field. We didn’t overthink it at the Masters with Xander and let’s continue that strategy in the low country. Patrick looked much better at Augusta and now he’s heading to a safe place. Let’s cash another top 10.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cam Davis (+400, FanDuel) — I liked CP’s and Keith’s handicaps on Davis, who has proven his propensity for Harbour Town and is coming off a great finish at Augusta.

Powers, Golf Digest: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+550, DraftKings) — Bez missed out on the Masters but had been on a run of three straight top 25s leading in. Putting and chipping remains the strength of his game but he’s starting to play consistently well tee-to-green, too.

Lack: Patrick Cantlay (+175, BetRivers) — The formula is simple: play Patrick Cantlay at Pete Dye courses. In six appearances at Harbour Town, Cantlay has recorded five top-seven finishes, including a second and third in his last two appearances. Only a win is missing from Cantlay’s resume at the iconic Hilton Head venue, and while I’m not sure the ball-striking is in tip-top enough shape to win, I would be fairly surprised if he isn’t in the mix.

Top-10 results from the Masters: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Cameron Young +340); Powers: 1 for 1 (Will Zalatoris +320); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Xander Schauffele +150); Everybody else: 0 for 1

Top-10 results from this season: Mayo: 3 for 15 (up 1 units); Hennessey: 4 for 15 (up 4.65 units); Caddie: 3 for 15 (down 0.5 units); Lack: 3 for 15 (down 3.2 units); Gdula: 2 for 15 (down 4.5 units); Powers: 3 for 15 (down 4.4 units); Stewart: 2 for 15 (down 8.17 units)

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About our experts 

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME. 

Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13. 

Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.

Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports 

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