Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions
Apr 27, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) looks on after a home run hit by San Diego Padres third baseman Eguy Rosario (not pictured) during the eighth inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Marlins (10-29) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (26-12) to loanDepot Park Friday. First pitch to kick off their 3-game series is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Marlins won 20023 series 7-6
The Phillies lost 1 of 2 at home to the Toronto Blue Jays and are coming off a 5-3 defeat Wednesday. They have won 7 of their last 8 games and are 11-2 over their last 13. Philadelphia sits atop the NL East and is 11-5 on the road, the 2nd-best win percentage in the majors.
The Marlins have lost 3 in a row and were swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in their last series. Miami has won 4 of its last 9 at home, but is last in the NL East and is a league-worst 5-15 at home.
Phillies at Marlins projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Trevor Rogers
Suarez (6-0, 1.72 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.72 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 47 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 14-3 home win vs. San Francisco Giants Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 3-0, 1.29 ERA, 21 IP, 3 ER, 9 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 17 K in 3 starts
- Career vs. Miami: 4-2, 3.24 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 61 H, 20 BB, 57 K in 7 starts (18 appearances)
Rogers (0-5, 6.15 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.72 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 33 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 20-4 road loss vs. the Oakland A’s Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 0-2, 4.35 ERA, 20 2/3 IP, 10 ER, 23 H (1 HR), 8 BB, 20 K in 4 starts
- Career vs. Philadelphia: 1-5, 6.70 ERA (43 IP, 32 ER), 1.56 WHIP, 46 H, 21 BB, 47 K in 9 starts
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Phillies at Marlins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -196 (bet $196 to win $100) | Marlins +164 (bet $100 to win $164)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-120) | Marlins +1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Marlins 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Phillies are one of the best teams on the road while Miami is one of the worst at home. Philadelphia should have a major pitching advantage with Suarez as well.
At -196, there is no value in betting it to win outright.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-120).
The Phillies have won all 7 games which Suarez has started, and they have covered in 6 of them. They have won 5 games in a row which he has started by at least 4 runs. Philadelphia is 6-6 ATS as a road favorite as well which sits in the top half of the league.
The Marlins have lost 3 in a row and failed to cover a 1.5-point run line spread in each of those. They have failed to cover that size of a spread in 5 of their last 6 games and are 11-27 ATS on the season.
Put the trends together and back PHILLIES -1.5 (-120).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-105).
The Marlins have gone over in 4 of their last 5 games, allowing at least 6 runs in 3 of those. They are 21-17 O/U on the season and 4-3 O/U in Rogers’ starts.
The Phillies have gone Over in 3 of their last 5 games and have topped the total in 6 of their last 9, going 6-2-1 O/U in that stretch. Take OVER 7.5 (-105).
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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions