Record-low enrolments at Australian government schools should ring ‘alarm bells’, experts say

There were 2,614,094 students enrolled in government schools in Australia in 2023 – a total increase of just 0.7% in the past five years. Photograph: courtneyk/Getty Images

Education experts say “alarm bells” should be ringing for state and federal governments after data revealed the percentage of children enrolled in public education has fallen to a record low.

The annual schools data, released on Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), found the proportion of students enrolled in government schools has dropped by four percentage points in two decades, from about 68% in 2002 to 64% last year.

There were 2,614,094 students enrolled in government schools in 2023, representing a total increase of just 0.7% in the past five years.

During the same time period, independent schools recorded an increase of 14.1%, while Catholic school enrolments grew by 4.8%.

Pasi Sahlberg, professor of educational leadership at the University of Melbourne, said the data reminded him of the “boiling frog apologue”.

“If a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if it’s put in tepid water which is brought to a boil slowly, it won’t perceive the danger and will be cooked to death,” he said.

“Australia’s market-driven education landscape … has made our schools’ education one of the most segregated in the developed world.

“A larger proportion of students enrol in nongovernment schools in Australia than most other OECD countries.”

Sahlberg said the system of “choice” was also tied up with the image that government schools were plagued by teacher shortages, poor infrastructure and chronic underfunding.

“The status of government schools in reports is leading more parents to think private schools have better educational facilities and staff,” he said.

Victoria and Western Australia were the only states and territories where enrolments in public schools grew compared with last year, while Tasmania and the Northern Territory recorded the largest falls.

Nick Parkinson, senior associate in education at the Grattan Institute, said of the 140,000 additional students who entered schools in the past five years, nearly 120,000 were privately educated.

“The long-term trend should be ringing alarm bells – public education should be a competitive option,” he said.

“It raises some important questions for governments. I’d be asking how can we make sure our schools are seen as a really attractive option for families?

“We want to make sure our state-funded schools offer a world-class education that’s competitive with fee paying options.”

Nongovernment schools now represent 36% of the total cohort, with the largest growth experienced in Queensland, the ACT, Western Australia and New South Wales.

Margery Evans, the chief executive of the Association of Independent Schools NSW, said independent schools had enrolled 60% of all new students since 2000.

“This is remarkable given that independent schools are just 16% of NSW schools,” she said.

Evans said the largest growth cohorts were for low and mid-fee Anglican, Islamic and Christian schools in fast-growing Sydney outer suburbs.

“There are practical considerations as well – 70% of independent schools are combined primary and secondary schools in a co-educational environment, which more families want for their child,” she said.

The data also showed retention rates were continuing to decline since the pandemic, largely due to a drop-off in the government sector.

The proportion of students remaining in the schooling system through to year 12 fell to 79.1% in 2023, down from 80.5% in 2022.

While retention rates remained stable for independent schools (94.3%) and Catholic schools (81.1%), just 73.6% of students in public education completed year 12 in 2023.

It was a 2.4% drop from the previous year (76%) and a fall of almost 10% prior to the pandemic in 2019 (82.2%).

Sahlberg said it was crucial to find new ways to make school “attractive, inspiring and interesting places” for all students, especially those in higher year levels.

“We need to co-create a new purpose of school education not be limited to test scores and exam results,” he said. “To give more students better reasons to come to school and perceive it as their happy place.”

The ACT had the highest retention rate at 89.2%, while the NT was lowest at 51.7%.

Australia’s capital is the only state or territory where all public schools are fully funded to 100% of the schooling resource standard, while the NT will never reach it on its current trajectory.

There were 265,935 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students enrolled in Australian schools, the data showed, a 3.6% increase compared with 2022.

Four in five (81.8%) First Nations students were enrolled in government schools.

In healthy news for the sector, the number of people working in schools kept pace with increased enrolments, despite ongoing concerns over teaching shortages.

An additional 44,486 students entered the schooling system compared with last year, however the student-to-teaching-staff ratio remained unchanged at 13.1 students to one teacher.

There were 311,655 full-time equivalent teaching staff in schools in 2023, an increase of 1.4% from the previous year.