Opinion: Lingayat influence and scandal shadow- Karnataka braces for intense poll phase
Opinion: Lingayat influence and scandal shadow- Karnataka braces for intense poll phase
The 7th of May will see the remaining 14 constituencies of Karnataka going to the polls. These seats are largely in Northern and Central Karnataka. The last time around (2019), the BJP won all the 14 seats. In 2014, the BJP had won 10 of the seats with the Congress securing 4. This time around, there is a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP, with the JDS (as part of its alliance with the BJP) not contesting any seats in this region.
REGIONAL DYNAMICS
There are three distinct regions that are going to the polls on May 7. The Kittur Karnataka region (this was earlier called the Mumbai-Karnataka region) and has been a stronghold of the BJP for close to three decades. The Kalyan-Karnataka region (earlier called Hyderabad Karnataka) is among the most backward in the state and has seen a traditional contest between the Congress and the BJP with small pockets of support for the JDS. The third region is the Central Karnataka region which has seen the increasing presence of the BJP in the last two decades. Traditionally, this region was the stronghold of the Congress.
The BJP has replaced half its sitting MPs in these 14 seats and has fielded the other half as candidates. There is unhappiness within the BJP about the re-nomination of some of the sitting MPs. Similarly, in at least two of the seats (Koppal and Uttara Kannada), the sitting MPs have, with different degrees of intensity expressed their reservations about being dropped. In the case of Congress, five of the fourteen candidates are sons/daughters of ministers in the state government. Another three are relatives of senior Congress leaders and one is a retired IAS officer. None of the senior ministers from the government offered themselves as a candidate. Save one candidate, none of the Congress nominees contested the 2019 elections. This accounts for the varying strengths of the BJP and Congress candidates.
DEMOGRAPHIC INFLUENCE
The seats going to the polls in Karnataka have a significant presence of Lingayat, Other Backward Castes (OBCs), Dalit and Tribal voters. The Lingayats have a significant political presence in Northern Karnataka. Data from the Lokniti-CSDS surveys indicate that, since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections (including assembly elections) the BJP has secured over 60 per cent of the Lingayat vote, save in the 2023 Assembly elections. In that election, the BJP share of the Lingayat vote dipped to 56 per cent. Earlier, in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, it had won close to 87 per cent of the Lingayat vote.
The Congress, on the other hand, has been securing around one-fourth of the Lingayat vote in all elections since 2014, save in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In 2019, the vote share of the Congress among the Lingayats plummeted to just 10 per cent. Thus, the way in which this influential vote would swing is crucial. With the return of Yediyurappa to a key decision-making position, his son being made the state president and two former Chief Ministers from the Lingayat community (Bommai and Shettar) contesting from this region, the BJP would be hoping for a consolidation of the Lingayat vote.
Given the strong presence of the non-dominant OBC vote in these 14 seats, both the Congress and the BJP are making an all-out effort to win this vote. Since 2014, the BJP has done better than the Congress among these voters (as per the Lokniti CSDS surveys). The Congress had narrowed down this gap to one percentage point in the 2023 Assembly elections. This time around, this vote can be a swing factor in key seats. The Dalit vote has been strongly with the Congress in this region since 2014. Even when the BJP swept all seats in this region in 2019, there was a six-percentage point advantage for the Congress among Dalit voters.
It may also be useful to record, that this Kalyan-Karnataka region is among the most backward regions of the state. The Congress is aggressively campaigning on the five guarantees that the State government has implemented. The BJP, on the other hand, is focusing on the leadership of Prime Minister Modi as the mainstay of their campaign. The results in this region could well be a competition between these two competing narratives.
PRAJWAL RAVANNA FACTOR
Commentators have been discussing the impact of the Prajwal Revanna factor and the embarrassment that the alleged sex scandal could cause for the BJP. Three factors are in play here. Firstly, the JDS is not contesting in any of the 14 seats going to the polls. The three seats that they contested have already been voted. Secondly, the BJP has already implemented an insurance policy by distancing itself from the issue hoping that there would be no collateral damage. Its senior leadership has asserted that if there has been any wrongdoing, the guilty must be punished. The third and most crucial factor is how effectively and imaginatively does the Congress make this into a key campaign issue to embarrass its opponent. While Congress leaders have brought it to the fore, to what extent it impacts the voter choice, is still difficult to determine.
In this next phase of voting, Karnataka will see a keen contest involving a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. The stakes for both parties are high and the campaign indicates that both sides are making an all-out effort to win the confidence of the voters.
(Views expressed in this opinion piece are that of the author)
Â
Â
Â
Watch Live TV in English
Watch Live TV in Hindi