Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

18/05/2024

May 13, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) moves the ball past Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) during the second half in game four of the second round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Mavericks battle the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals Saturday. Tip from American Airlines Center in Dallas is set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Thunder vs. Mavericks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Mavericks took Game 5 on the road 104-92, winning outright as 4.5-point underdogs Wednesday. G Luka Doncic tallied a game-high 31 points. They are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in the series and 7-4 ATS in the playoffs. Dallas covered in every 1st-round win and failed to cover in every loss in its 4-2 series victory vs. the LA Clippers. The Mavs finished 48-34 ATS in the regular season.

The Thunder split the first 2 games of this series at home and then split the next 2 in Dallas. Oklahoma City is 1-1 straight up and ATS as an underdog in the series. OKC swept the New Orleans Pelicans in the 1st round and covered in 3 of the 4 games, closing as a favorite in each game. It ended the regular season with a 46-36 ATS record and, with the playoffs included, is 22-22-1 ATS on the road.

Thunder at Mavericks odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:59 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Thunder +142 (bet $100 to win $142) | Mavericks -168 (bet $168 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Thunder +3.5 (-110) | Mavericks -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Thunder at Mavericks key injuries

Thunder

None

Mavericks

None

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Thunder at Mavericks picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 106, Thunder 101

Moneyline

PASS.

The Mavericks should close out the series and are 3-2 straight up at home in the playoffs. At -168, there's no value in betting them to win outright. The only value on the moneyline is the Thunder at +142.

The home team's spread is the preferred play here.

Against the spread

BET MAVERICKS -3.5 (-110).

The Mavericks have been incredible against Western Conference teams, posting a 39-24 ATS record so far this season with the playoffs included, and they have continued to perform well for bettors in the postseason. Dallas has covered 5 of its last 7 games and is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite.

The Thunder are a young team and struggled at home in Game 5, shooting 10-for-40 from deep. They could struggle on the road in a rowdy Dallas environment. Oklahoma City is just 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games and rely too heavily on F Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has tallied 64 points in the last 2 games.

Expect Dallas to continue to reward bettors and take MAVERICKS -3.5 (-110).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 208.5 (-108).

NBA Playoffs bring high-level defense as games matter more, and both teams have seen the struggles that come with enhanced defensive intensity.

The Thunder were 46-35-1 O/U in the regular season and are 2-7 O/U in the playoffs. They have scored Under 100 points in 3 games and Under 102 points in 5 of 9. Dallas is 1-4 O/U in its last 5 and was 36-46 O/U on the season. It is 4-7 O/U in the playoffs.

Given the recent trends for both teams in the playoffs, take UNDER 208.5 (-108).

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks Game 6 odds, picks and predictions