NBA play-in teams’ chances of going on a Mickey Mouse run to the NBA Finals, ranked

NBA play-in teams’ chances of going on a Mickey Mouse run to the NBA Finals, ranked

The 2022-23 Miami Heat were not supposed to go to the NBA Finals. They were minutes from not even going to the playoffs; after losing their first play-in game to the Atlanta Hawks, the Heat were down to the Chicago Bulls for the majority of the fourth quarter in their second play-in game, only pulling ahead with two minutes remaining on a spinning, pivoting, hanging Jimmy Butler layup.

But experience carried the day for the Heat, and once they actually reached the playoffs, they were exceptional there. Their shooting accelerated to ludicrous speed. Of course, their success is not to be taken for granted. In fact, among all teams to reach the Finals since the ABA merger in 1976, the Heat were, statistically, the second-worst regular-season team in NBA history, at least based on Basketball Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS), which combines net rating with strength of schedule to give one number to a team’s season-long performance.

Could any of this year’s play-in teams mimic last year’s Heat in going to the NBA Finals? There are a variety of strong play-in teams this season with star talent, playoff experience, and the ability to win games against any opponent. In fact, most of this year’s play-in teams (including this season’s Heat) have superior SRS scores to last year’s Heat.

If the New Orleans Pelicans were to go to the NBA Finals with their SRS of 4.46, they would rank 65th of 94 teams to have gone to the NBA Finals since the ABA merger. In the bottom third for Finals teams, sure, but a much more normal Finals team than last year’s Heat. Sometimes great teams are pushed to the bottom of a bracket by virtue of strong conferences. The 1978 Washington Bullets, for example, were only a third seed in the East (in a smaller field) despite Elvin Hayes finishing third in MVP voting that year. That was because George Gervin led the No. 2 seed San Antonio Spurs (then in the East) and Julius Irving led the No. 1 seed Philadelphia 76ers.

Still, Hayes’ Bullets won the championship.

What commonalities are to be found among lesser-caliber regular-season teams to have gone to the Finals? Simply being a good team in the regular season is the most basic quality. Judged by SRS, the better the team, the more likely they are to do well in the playoffs. The more stars, the more wins, the better. And if we’re using the 2022-23 Heat as our model, then experience has to be another vital component. Last year’s Heat rostered four players among the top 30 active leaders in playoff games played: Udonis Haslem (tied for 8th overall, even if he barely played in 2023), Kyle Lowry (13th), Jimmy Butler (14th), and Kevin Love (26th).

And finally, the ability to harness the powers of variance will be our final ingredient. Last year’s Heat went supernova in the playoffs, shooting the highest percentage of any team from deep. That came after ranking 27th in the regular season. Having a variety of shooters able to explode at any moment is important in lessening the gap between a higher seed and a lower one.

With all that in mind, which of this year’s play-in teams have those same qualities? Perhaps the cleanest way to break it down is to break them into tiers.

Tier one – Why are they in the play-in tournament?

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 47-35

Offensive Rating: 116.2 (14th)

Defensive Rating: 113.0 (11th)

With it becoming increasingly clear that the Philadelphia 76ers would occupy the No. 7 seed and would be likely to face the No. 2 seed in the first round, the teams with a chance at that No. 2 seed mostly wilted. The Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers found ways to lose on the final day of the regular season, seemingly in hopes of avoiding the 76ers. For good reason.

The Sixers have everything you want from a low-seeded team that is going to make a playoff run. Lowry gives the team playoff experience on the floor. And Joel Embiid is no stranger to playoff moments, either. The Sixers have plenty of shooters up and down the roster, and the positional spectrum. In Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers have pull-up shooting galore. And most importantly, they have the talent to compete with anyone.

They were the No. 3 seed for the first stretch of the season, all the way to the end of January. Then Embiid hurt himself. But without the reigning MVP — who was a runaway leader to capture this year’s MVP award until the injury — the Sixers started losing games.

Embiid is back now. With Embiid and presumptive favorite for Most Improved Player of the Year Maxey on the court, the Sixers had a net rating of 12.4. That was good for a top-20 mark leaguewide.

The 76ers just aren’t an underdog with Embiid back in the lineup. In the games in which the Sixers started any of their three most-used starting lineups, with Embiid, Maxey, and Tobias Harris all on the court, they combined to go 22-3. The Sixers are a powerhouse when healthy, with a top-five player in basketball. New coach Nick Nurse has a championship pedigree, and he made terrific adaptations to the team’s offense in his first year (moving post-ups higher on the floor, for example, so Embiid has more time and better sight angles to pass out of doubles). The Sixers are ready, seed be damned.

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 49-33

Offensive Rating: 116.5 (11th)

Defensive Rating: 111.9 (sixth)

The New Orleans Pelicans look like a juggernaut hiding in plain sight. On a per-possession basis, they have the sixth-best point differential in the league. They are a top-10 defensive team led by one of the most unique and unstoppable stars in the world in Zion Williamson. The team is stocked with shooting, depth, and talent.

Perhaps their only weakness is a lack of playoff experience. This will be Williamson’s first appearance in the playoffs, while secondary star Brandon Ingram has only played in six games. Supporting two-way talents like Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III also have six playoff games apiece to their names. But CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas have combined to play in over 100 games — both within the top 75 among active players. It’s rare that untested teams go far in the playoffs, but perhaps McCollum and Valanciunas can keep the ship afloat during those first new moments in the crucible for everyone else.

And that’s the only mark on the resume that isn’t stellar. New Orleans might possess the most well-rounded offense in basketball (outside of the Boston Celtics). They rank within the top 10 for efficiency for possessions initiated by pick and roll, isolations, post-ups, or handoffs. Williamson himself is equally fantastic and high-volume in each of those areas, so the team takes after its star. Even when he’s not on the court, New Orleans has been very successful; the all-wing trio with Ingram, Jones, and Murphy has a net rating 15.7 without Williamson.

New Orleans is also stacked with shooters, with Murphy and McCollum two of the better high-volume shooters in the league. As a team, New Orleans doesn’t take a host of triples, but they rank fifth in team accuracy and second from the corners. Variance can help them against virtually any team.

If you took away the win-loss record and simply gander at the statistical profile of the Pelicans, one would certainly guess they have homecourt advantage in the first round. This is the foundation of a successful team. They will have a tough path through a killer West, but the Pelicans are equipped for the long haul.

Tier 2 – I could see it

Golden State Warriors

Record: 46-36

Offensive Rating: 116.9 (ninth)

Defensive Rating: 114.5 (15th)

In Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series, long after the dissolution of the Galactic Empire, Harry Seldon’s colony of archivists-turned-imperials runs into the remains of the former Empire. Though it used to rule everything and has shrunk considerably, it is still far, far mightier than the new empire. Even in its death throes, the memory of strength is enough to terrify anything that may face it.

That is the 2023-24 Golden State Warriors. Fallen, but mighty. Like last year’s Heat, this year’s Warriors have experienced playoff success very recently, winning the championship in 2022. And also like last year’s Heat, these Warriors have more experience than virtually any opponent they can face; Klay Thompson (sixth), Draymond Green (seventh), Chris Paul (eighth), and Steph Curry (ninth) all rank in the top 10 for most playoff games played among active players.

And the shooting almost goes without saying. Curry and Thompson can go berserk in a way that seems more predestined — and hence more demoralizing — than any pairing in NBA history. Even this season, the Warriors ranked sixth in 3-point percentage overall and first in pull-up 3-point percentage.

The Warriors have had a habit of self-destructing this season, from Green’s antics to laying eggs during would-be must-win games. Still, they have been red-hot recently, finishing March and April 15-9 despite facing a killer’s row of teams, with losses mostly to playoff opponents like the Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, and Boston Celtics. And Jonathan Kuminga is back from injury, giving the Warriors the athleticism on drives that the team lacks without him.

The Warriors look a lot like last year’s Heat: experienced, talented, and full of shooting. Since they revamped their lineup and committed to minutes for rookies Trayce Jackson-Davis (starting!) and Brandon Podziemski, the Warriors have been one of the best teams in the league.

The dynasty was supposed to be over long before 2022. It might have one more run left in the tank in 2024.

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 47-35

Offensive Rating: 115.4 (15th)

Defensive Rating: 114.8 (17th)

The argument for the Los Angeles Lakers is as simple as it gets. They reached the Western Conference Finals last year. They are better this year, with a higher SRS and a better win-loss record. Clean and concise.

Of course, by our three measures, the Lakers are doing fairly well, too. Experience is their friend, with LeBron James having played the most playoff games not just among active players, but among all players in NBA history. They weren’t a particularly strong regular-season team, but like the Warriors they’ve been at their best to end the season. Don’t let the team’s middling offensive and defensive rankings fool you; since the start of 2024, they’ve been ranked seventh in offense. And in D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves, the Lakers have two guards capable of raining fire from deep off the catch or the bounce.

The addition of another ballhandler in Spencer Dinwiddie has boosted Los Angeles’ offense. And now that Rui Hachimura is starting again, the Lakers have finally seemed to recapture the versatility that allowed their postseason success last year. They are 18-6 with their new-look starting lineup that includes Hachimura, Reaves, and Russell to go along with the two stars. The Lakers aren’t deep, but they might just be deep enough in the playoffs.

Plus, high seed or low, can you ever count out LeBron James when it comes to making a playoff run?

Tier 3 – Not going to happen

Miami Heat

Record: 46-36

Offensive Rating: 113.3 (21st)

Defensive Rating: 111.5 (fifth)

The Heat can’t do it again. It’s too unlikely, too improbable, too impossible. Last year was already stretching the strings of fate. To do so the next year, again from the play-in tournament, would just be spitting in the face of regular-season basketball and possibly even the basketball gods themselves.

Of course, Miami is a better team this year. The defense, especially, has been terrific. Bam Adebayo is a world-ender there, and perhaps the most switchable big in basketball. But there were indicators last year that said they might have been an unlucky regular-season team, with opponents shooting very well from deep and their own shooters all cold during the year.

Those have been almost entirely flipped this year, with the Heat shooting well from deep and opponents shooting cold. Butler, for example, won’t be able to flip the switch and start making his 3s; he already shot 41 percent from deep this season. The 2022-23 Heat had some runway available to themselves in the playoffs, while it appears like the 2023-24 Heat might already be playing closer to capacity.

On top of that, Miami lost some of its veteran leadership in Lowry. And the player for whom Lowry was traded, Terry Rozier, has not made much of an impact; the Heat have been significantly worse with him on the floor than on the bench. Duncan Robinson has been hurt, or playing hurt, for weeks. Max Strus and Gabe Vincent are no longer on the roster. As a result, this year’s Heat don’t have nearly as deep a stable of shooters.

But beyond all that, I simply don’t believe the Heat possess the dark magic required to upend the NBA world two seasons in a row.

Sacramento Kings

Record: 46-36

Offensive Rating: 116.2 (13th)

Defensive Rating: 114.4 (14th)

The Sacramento Kings were one of the most pleasant surprises in 2022-23, lawnmowing the league en route to the No. 3 seed and… a first-round loss. Their offense from the regular season stumbled as the Warriors sat on Domantas Sabonis’ handoffs and tried to force him into jumpers or drives. All the gorgeous motion and movement shooting and whirring cuts ground down over the course of a seven-game slugfest.

The 2023-24 Kings have been mostly the same team. That is, the record has been the same, although there have been a few improvements, and a few worsening elements, to add up to just about the same end result.

Sacramento’s offense dropped from the best in the league to average as the team created far less at the rim and saw a huge drop in its efficiency from the long mid-range. De’Aaron Fox did see a big jump in his 3-point accuracy, especially as a pull-up shooter. But that came along with a drop in his frequency and accuracy at the rim. And while the team’s defense did make strides, especially improving at warding opponents away from the rim, defense as a whole is still not the Kings’ strength.

Mostly, the Kings still lack playoff experience. Their stars in Fox and Sabonis have only combined to play 27 postseason games total. They lack the versatility in style required in the playoffs, when opposing defenses have long series within which to gameplan to take away primary options. They have the shooting, although with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk out, even that has taken a dip. The Kings will be hard-pressed to equal their accomplishments last year — or even make the playoffs.

Chicago Bulls

Record: 39-43

Offensive Rating: 114.0 (19th)

Defensive Rating: 115.7 (22nd)

The Bulls play hard and have a defined identity, but they simply don’t have the talent required for a deep playoff run. They try to win gritty, but they don’t have the size to do that, either. They have players with some experience, but DeMar DeRozan is their most experienced playoff performer, and he has — to put it charitably — not historically raised his game in the playoffs in the same way as someone like Miami’s Butler. (A non-shooter remaining a non-shooter, versus becoming a deadeye, makes a big difference.)

Besides, variance is not likely to go their way. They ranked 20th in 3-point accuracy in the regular season, with virtually no one on the team combining high volume and efficiency from deep. Coby White came closest, and his emergence this year has breathed life into the Bulls. But it’s not enough. Zach LaVine is out for the year. Nikola Vucevic is perhaps over the hill, with his shooting tailing off. DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are very good players, but the Bulls will be overmatched in any playoff series they face — and that’s if they make it out of the play-in tournament. Don’t expect magic from them this year.

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 36-46

Offensive Rating: 116.4 (12th)

Defensive Rating: 118.4 (27th)

For a time this year, it looked like the Atlanta Hawks might be on the verge of breaking out of their years-long doldrums. Jalen Johnson was emerging as a two-way force, and Trae Young’s defensive improvements seemed real. But injuries and diminished play have turned a promising year into a frustrating one, and now the Hawks are heading to the play-in tournament looking suspiciously similar to the team of the past two years — one that has lost in the first round of the playoffs to end both seasons.

As good as Johnson is, he’s not the two-way wing star that the Hawks have needed (yet). And while Young’s defense has been much better, he’s far from a stopper there. The team’s defense is also worse than it was last season. They just gave up 157 points to the Indiana Pacers in regulation in a game the Hawks ostensibly wanted to win. Young and Murray have never fit together perfectly, with the team’s net rating is worse with them together than with either on the court alone.

When the 2021 Hawks made a surprise run to the Eastern Conference Finals, that team was scalding in March and April, shooting from six games below .500 on Feb. 28 to 10 games above .500 on the last day of the season. These Hawks, in contrast, have limped to the playoffs, losing six in a row. Young has returned from injury, but Johnson has again succumbed. Their bigs are banged up. The Hawks can’t get healthy, can’t get hot, and don’t have the experience necessary to flip the switch in the playoffs.