NASCAR at Richmond odds, predictions, time: Model reveals surprising 2024 Toyota Owners 400 picks

NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. brings out a caution after hitting the wall during the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Richmond Raceway first appeared on the NASCAR schedule in 1953 and on Sunday the iconic short track will host its 135th NASCAR Cup Series race, the 2024 Toyota Owners 400. The race is scheduled for 400 laps around the 0.75-mile, D-shaped oval and will be held under the lights, with the green flag dropping at 7 p.m. ET. Joe Gibbs Racing has dominated the 2024 NASCAR schedule thus far, with all four of their drivers sitting top seven in the NASCAR standings entering NASCAR at Richmond.

It comes as no surprise that Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell are 17-4 co-favorites in the 2024 Toyota Owners 400 odds. Two of their teammates follow in the 2024 NASCAR at Richmond odds, with Martin Truex Jr. at 6-1 and Ty Gibbs at 8-1, while Kyle Larson rounds out the top five at 10-1. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Richmond predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Toyota Owners 400 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure’s model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.’s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano’s Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch’s Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin’s triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson’s wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.

Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted a Hamlin win in Bristol at 5-1. It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 17 winners since 2021, including nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard.

Top 2024 Toyota Owners 400 predictions

For the 2024 Toyota Owners 400, the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he’s a 25-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Richmond odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion is a disappointing 22nd in the standings with only one top-10 finish over his first six races but he’s experienced a lot of success at Richmond Raceway.

Logano has won twice in Richmond and has 13 top fives and 18 top 10s over 29 career starts there in the NASCAR Cup Series. He’s finished seventh or better at Richmond in six of his last seven starts there and he’s also coming off a stronger-than-expected race in Austin, finishing 11th at Circuit of the Americas after starting the race in 35th position.

Another massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., a three-time winner at Richmond and one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Richmond NASCAR starting lineup. Truex won the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series championship and is the points leader entering the week but he’s only finished better than fifth once this season.

Truex has also finished outside the top 10 in the NASCAR standings in each of the last two seasons, failing to make the postseason entirely after suffering his first winless season 2014 in 2022. Truex was outside the top 10 during the spring race at Richmond last season and hasn’t finished better than seventh in his last three starts at the historic short track. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Richmond picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Richmond odds ,longer than 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Toyota Owners 400 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Richmond odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 17 winners.

2024 Toyota Owners 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Richmond picks at SportsLine

Denny Hamlin 17-4

Christopher Bell 17-4

Martin Truex Jr. 6-1

Ty Gibbs 8-1

Kyle Larson 10-1

William Byron 12-1

Brad Keselowski 12-1

Chris Buescher 12-1

Tyler Reddick 14-1

Ryan Blaney 16-1

Chase Elliott 18-1

Kyle Busch 18-1

Ross Chastain 20-1

Joey Logano 25-1

Bubba Wallace 45-1

Alex Bowman 50-1

Chase Briscoe 60-1

Austin Dillon 75-1

Josh Berry 100-1

Noah Gragson 100-1

Ryan Preece 100-1

Daniel Suarez 100-1

Michael McDowell 100-1

John Hunter Nemechek 125-1

Erik Jones 125-1

Carson Hocevar 125-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 150-1

Austin Cindric 250-1

Corey Lajoie 350-1

Todd Gilliland 500-1

Justin Haley 1000-1

Ty Dillon 2000-1

Harrison Burton 2000-1

Daniel Hemric 2000-1

Zane Smith 2000-1

Kaz Grala 5000-1