Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

Mar 23, 2024; Surprise, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Hunter Renfroe (16) bats against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Royals welcome the Minnesota Twins for Opening Day Thursday from Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Twins won 9-4 last season

The Royals hope to bounce back after finishing as the 2nd-worst team in the American League last season. They were 56-106 on the year and 33-48 at home. Now, the Royals did spend more than 9 figures in the offseason, extending SS Bobby Witt Jr. and adding players like RF Hunter Renfroe and 2B Adam Frazier to bolster their lineup.

The Twins finished atop the AL Central yet had the 7th-best record in the AL last season. They were 87-75 on the year and 40-41 on the road. Minnesota may struggle without Cy Young runner-up SP Sonny Gray, who is now with the St. Louis Cardinals. The top bats (SS Carlos Correa and RF Max Kepler) will be returning for Minnesota, so it should be just as dangerous offensively.

Twins at Royals projected starters

RHP Pablo López vs. LHP Cole Ragans

López (11-8, 3.66 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start. He had a 1.16 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 194 IP in 2023.

• 2023 road stats: 6-5, 3.10 ERA (95 2/3 IP, 33 ER) in 16 starts
• Last start vs. Royals: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 12 K in a 5-0 home win July 5, 2023
• Career vs. Royals: 3-1, 2.70 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 8 ER) in 4 starts

Ragans (7-5, 3.47 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start. He had a 1.16 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 96 IP with the Texas Rangers and Royals in 2023.

• 2023 home stats: 4-2, 3.06 ERA (47 IP, 16 ER) in 6 starts and 9 relief appearances
• Career vs. Twins: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 2-1 road win with the Rangers Aug. 22, 2022

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Twins at Royals odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Twins -122 (bet $122 to win $100) | Royals +104 (bet $100 to win $104)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+136) | Royals +1.5 (-164)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -106 | U: -114)

Twins at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Royals 5, Twins 4

Moneyline

BET ROYALS (+104).

The Twins finished atop the division last season, but the loss of Gray should loom large on their success. They weren’t nearly as active in the offseason and finished below .500 on the road a season ago. Minnesota had success due to its starting pitching, finishing outside the top 15 in batting average and hits.

The Royals should have the pitching edge, as Ragans had a strong finish to last season, and with Renfoe, who ended last season with 116 hits and 60 RBIs, in the lineup as well, they should see more production offensively. Kansas City likely won’t be a playoff team this season, but it should see more success at home, while the Twins should retreat off a strong 2023.

Take ROYALS (+104).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s not great value here on either side, and the home side’s moneyline offers the best odds for this Opening Day battle.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8 (-114).

Both teams trended towards the Over last season with the Royals adding firepower to their lineup in the offseason as well. Kansas City added several new faces which should help boost production.

It was 79-77-6 O/U last season, while Minnesota was 85-78-5 O/U. The Royals were 43-35-3 O/U at Kauffman Stadium, the 7th-best Over percentage at home in MLB.

Take more runs here, and back OVER 8 (-114).

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions