Ranking Raiders' NFL Draft scenarios in 1st round, from most to least likely

Ranking Raiders’ NFL Draft scenarios in 1st round, from most to least likely

There has been no shortage of debate about what the Las Vegas Raiders could and should do with their first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which comes at No. 13 overall — and there are no shortage of possibilities, either.

The Raiders could trade up or down with the intention of grabbing their next quarterback of the future, or they could simply stay put and grab their signal-caller or address another position of need, like right tackle or cornerback.

But what are the Raiders most likely to do on Day 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft? We’re going to take a look at each of the five aforementioned scenarios and rank them, from most likely (No. 1) to least likely (No. 5).

1. Raiders draft an OT at 13

The Raiders have a pair of needs at starting spots along the offensive line, with one of them coming at right tackle. Las Vegas is in luck, though, as this draft class is deep at the position and the team is in a sweet spot to land one of the top options behind Notre Dame’s Joe Alt.

The list of possibilities at offensive tackle for the No. 13 pick include Penn State’s Olu Fashanu, Alabama’s JC Latham and Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga. Latham and Fuaga may be able to play guard if needed, also.

But there’s also a possibility that the depth at tackle in this year’s class leads to Las Vegas waiting until the second round or later, although that would make it less likely the Raiders land a Year 1 starter, which they need.

2. Raiders draft a CB at 13

The Raiders are in a better spot at cornerback than they are at right tackle, as they have one sure starter on the boundary in Jack Jones and another in the slot in Nate Hobbs. However, the Raiders have a question mark opposite Jones.

Las Vegas might go cornerback at No. 13, a spot where they could have a crack at both of the top players at the position in this class in Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell and Alabama’s Terrion Arnold.

Nabbing an elite cornerback in a division run by the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes might be too tempting to pass up, especially if the Raiders believe they can still land a good tackle later on.

3. Raiders trade down, draft QB

This scenario could play out if the Raiders are higher on Oregon’s Bo Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. than draft analysts are, as both are widely considered to be second-round picks, at best.

If I had to guess, Penix Jr. would be the guy Las Vegas targets in this scenario, which would also net the Raiders more draft capital.

4. Raiders draft Michael Penix Jr. at 13

This would once again be a case of draft analysts and a team not having their evaluations lined up, which we’ve seen plenty over the years.

Again, the consensus is that Penix Jr. will be there in the second round, but perhaps Las Vegas doesn’t see it the same way and decides to grab the Washington product earlier than expected.

5. Raiders trade up, draft QB

This may very well be the scenario the Raiders prefer the most, with the aim of grabbing LSU’s Jayden Daniels, assuming USC’s Caleb Williams turns out to be the No. 1 overall pick. But there are so many roadblocks, making this the most unlikely scenario.

All signs are pointing to the Washington Commanders, who own the No. 2 pick, taking Daniels in that spot. So, not only would the Raiders need them to come off that, Las Vegas would also have to spend a fortune and outbid other quarterback-needy teams, including the Minnesota Vikings, who own two first-round picks this year (Nos. 11 and 23).

Even if the Raiders wanted to make a smaller leap up, the same logic applies in terms of the stiff competition they’d face in trying to do so.