When will it snow in the UK this winter? Here’s what the Met Office says

December is just round the corner, the countdown to the festive season is on, and as always that means rumours of a possible “white Christmas” are already swirling.

The UK gets on average 23.7 days of snowfall or sleet a year, according to the Met Office.

How much snow depends on where you live – the figure is as high as 38.1 for Scotland, while Cornwall gets as few as 7.4 days of snow or sleet a year.

The Met Office says: “Much of this snowfall does not settle, and the figures for snow on the ground are much lower. On average across the UK, there are only 15.6 days a year when snow is on the ground, compared to 26.2 days in Scotland. Most of the snow on the ground can be found in mountainous areas.”

When will it snow this winter?

Despite tabloid reports of a “white Christmas snow bomb”, Met Office spokesperson Nicola Maxey said 25 December still sits outside the range of its long-term forecast, meaning it is “too far ahead” to provide accurate information.

Even closer to the time, snowfall can be tricky to predict.

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“There is often a fine line between who sees snow and who sees rain. Sometimes just a fraction of a degree Celsius change in temperature can make the difference between rain or snow falling, making forecasting snow weeks in advance extremely difficult,” she said.

“It is also important to remember cold air or freezing temperatures do not guarantee snow, you need moisture in the air too.”

The Met Office is not predicting any snow this week, but northern parts of the country could see some snowfall on the final weekend of November.

From Friday 24 November to Sunday 3 December, the Met Office says: “The early part of this period is likely to see a north-south split in weather conditions, with southern parts of the UK drier than of late, while northern areas, particularly western Scotland, see more in the way of cloud, rain and wind.

“Within this overall pattern, there may well be incursions of colder air at times, especially across north and north-east UK, with wintry showers and overnight frost.

“It’s uncertain just when such cold spells will occur and how extensive they will be, and it may be that this happens more than once with periods of milder, wetter weather in between.”

What is the latest weather forecast?

Monday

Rather cloudy across the UK, with scattered showers. Some brighter interludes developing at times, especially across southeast England. Staying windy across the north and the west. Feeling colder than recent days.

Monday night

Further showers through the evening and overnight. However, clearer skies will move in across Scotland and Northern Ireland during the early hours, allowing a patchy frost to form here.

Tuesday

A bright day across Scotland and Northern Ireland, with spells of sunshine. Cloudier for England and Wales, with scattered showers, especially in the east. Near average temperatures and light winds.

Wednesday to Friday

A north-south split Wednesday and Thursday. Windy, with outbreaks of rain in the north and mainly dry in the south. Rain pushing south on Friday, brighter but colder conditions following.