Local Election results: rays of hope for Sunak, warnings for Starmer

The results from the local elections proved that the polls, as they stand, are not wrong and that if there were a general election in the coming days then the Conservatives will be heading for the opposition benches.

Rishi Sunak, despite his messaging that the economy is “turning a corner”, that the Rwanda plan to deport migrants is already acting as a deterrent and that voters should “stick to the plan” is clearly not getting through to voters.

But while the outlook for the Prime Minister appears bleak, there are a few rays of light that could, if not turn defeat into victory, certainly reduce the scale of any loss.

The first is that even with the dire results any appetite to depose him and find a leader seems to have disappeared, with agitators now resigned to looking to shape the party beyond the election. This gives Sunak the space and time to flesh out his own policy platform by which to take on Labour at the election.

Just how the Prime Minister decides to approach the election could be informed by another positive result for the Tories in the shape of Ben Houchen being re-elected as Tees Valley Mayor.

While the Conservative peer secured a third term with a dramatically reduced majority, his brand of pragmatic Conservatism based on investment for local infrastructure with a focus on green jobs, could offer Sunak a potential blueprint by which to go by.

Similarly, if Andy Street holds on to the West Midlands mayoralty and Susan Hall runs Sadiq Khan close in London then a bad set of locals may look slightly better come Saturday evening.

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The other story in these elections was the fact that Keir Starmer’s Labour did not set pulses racing, despite the bad set of results for the Tories.

It was only a few weeks ago that pollsters were insisting that both the Tees Valley and the West Midlands were very much in reach for Labour, but the party failed to get enough voters to turn out for them in the North East, with West Mids also expected to remain Tory.

This is partly explained by Starmer’s Labour struggling to fire the imaginations of voters with its policies, but it is also to do with what is happening in Gaza.

While the Middle Eastern conflict is unlikely to be too big a factor in the general election, it could cause problems for Labour in particular seats, particularly in the West Midlands and the North West.

Whether it will be enough to make Starmer shift his position on the issue remains to be seen, but if he does it could add to Tory accusations that he “flip-flops” on matters. None of which is likely to dramatically affect his path to No 10.

But above all, it is the vote share that will most concern Labour with both the BBC and Sky showing national vote share projections for the party off the back of the local results of around 34 to 35 per cent, which would not be enough to secure a majority.