NBA mock draft 2024: Rob Dillingham soars up board in latest first round projection

NBA mock draft 2024: Rob Dillingham soars up board in latest first round projection

By now, it’s widely accepted that the 2024 NBA Draft is weaker class. The lack of a bonafide No. 1 overall pick has been evident for more than a year, and this season has done little to separate the names at the top. Still, even bad drafts produce good players, and that should be a ray of hope for teams picking in the first round come late June.

This draft has been particularly challenging to evaluate due to the lack of top talent at the college level. With March Madness just around the corner, there remains no consensus on who is the best NBA prospect in college basketball. This particular mock draft features only one college player in the top-six picks.

Alex Sarr, a 7’1 French big man playing for the Perth Wildcats in Australia, and Nikola Topic, a speedy 6’6 guard from Serbia, have been our top two prospects since the season began. That remains the case now even as both have battled injuries in 2024. G League Ignite wings Matas Buzelis and Ron Holland remain top-five overall players in the class in our view despite their struggles this season. French wing Zaccharie Risacher is also rising up boards, being marked as the top player in the class by outlets like ESPN.

The picks in this mock draft were determine mostly by our personal player rankings while also accounting for team fit for players within the same tier. The top-five players in this draft are the top-five players on my board in some order, and there’s a wider tier for the rest of the lottery. Here’s our latest first round projection for the 2024 NBA Draft. More analysis of this class, after the table.

Alex Sarr continues to make the case for the No. 1 pick

Alexandre Sarr has been on the NBA’s radar for years. The 7’1 French big man is the younger brother of Olivier Sarr, a former standout at Wake Forest and Kentucky who is currently on a two-way deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Sarr starred for France in multiple FIBA youth tournaments, and played two seasons in Overtime Elite before making the move to Australia this season to play for the Perth Wildcats under the league’s Next Stars program.

We had Sarr pegged as a late lottery pick in our June preseason board, but it immediately became clear he’d challenge for the No. 1 overall pick after an incredible showing in two preseason games against the Ignite in Sept. The regular season has been a bit of a mixed bag for Sarr up to this point for several reasons, but the tape still shows that Sarr has the best physical tools of any player in this class by a sizable margin.

It’s odd that a potential No. 1 overall pick doesn’t start or usually close games for his team, but that’s the situation Sarr finds himself in. Perth is an elite veteran team holding the second-best record in the NBL at the moment. Sarr, who doesn’t turn 19 years old until April 26, is something like the sixth man, using his blend of size, athleticism, and coordination to fly around the court when he gets his chance in his 17 minutes per game. There are moments when Sarr is too eager to make a big play and finds himself out of position. Teams will want to see him get better at making decisions with the ball — he still has more turnovers than assists so far. The NBA will question if he can rebound well enough to play the five full-time, if his shooting flashes will ever become consistent, and if he can find a real role on offense if they don’t.

There’s no denying the upside, though. Sarr is massive — 7’1 with a 7’4.5 wingspan — with the type of physical build that should be able to add muscle as he ages. He is a phenomenal mover for someone his size, showing outstanding straight line speed in transition, great burst to the ball, and real quickness in short areas. He’s a skilled and willing rim protector who is currently fifth in the NBL in blocks per game despite not playing starter’s minutes. He’s both a lob threat as a roll man, and someone who needs to be accounted for on the offensive glass. He’s been taking threes in rhythm all year, but he’s just 14-of-47 from behind the arc and makes only 71.4 percent of his free throws. His most enticing offensive skill might be his open floor ball handling, where he can push in transition and use his mix of agility and power to attack cracks in the defense.

If it all comes together, Sarr is going to be the type of big man every team covets. He’ll be a hyper-mobile center who protect the rim and survive on the perimeter defensively, who can hammer alley-oop as a roller and knock down threes when he pops, who can get easy baskets in transition and physically overwhelm opponents lacking his length, speed, and force.

It’s easy to see where this can go wrong, too, especially if teams don’t trust him to make decisions with the ball. To me, Sarr feels like a champion of the eye test, a player whose physical tools are so undeniable that he rises above his peers without best-in-class production. He’s in our top tier alongside Nikola Topic, and he feels like the most likely top pick at the moment.

‘Reed and Rob’ are the best show in college basketball

It’s rare that the two best NBA prospects in college basketball play on the same team. It’s even more bizarre that neither of them starts. This is the story of Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard, a pair of guards for a high-scoring Kentucky squad that feels like it has as much variance as any team in the country.

Dillingham and Sheppard have a few things in common: a) They are both very small, and b) can get overpowered defensively in the wrong matchups while also being c) electric three-point shooters with potentially special touch. When Rob and Reed are on the court together, Kentucky crushes teams to the tune of a +27.1 net-rating. Their lack of size has given head coach John Calipari pause on how many minutes the two can reliably handle together, and those questions will only get more interesting in the NBA.

Dillingham is the most exciting player in college hoops to these eyes. The 6’2 guard is impossibly shifty and quick with the ball in his hands. He’s just as likely to pull-up for a deep and audacious three-pointer as he is to leverage the threat of his scoring to set up a teammate. Dillingham is also dangerous as an off-ball threat, using smart relocations and deep shooting range to bend opposing defenses even when’s not at the controls. He looks like a great shooter: 44.8 percent from three on 105 attempts, 47.4 percent on non-rim twos. Of course, Dillingham’s small frame can still get him in trouble. He doesn’t finish at the rim well (54.2 percent), and he’s not a good defender despite a solid steal rate of 2.7 percent.

Sheppard’s brilliance has been captured by statistics all year. He currently has the eighth highest freshman BPM since 2008, with the names ahead of him being Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Chet Holmgren, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Evan Mobley. Of course, it doesn’t take fancy stats to realize Sheppard is very, very good at basketball. It jumps off the screen every time you watch him play.

Sheppard just might be a special shooter. Right now, he’s making 51.4 percent of his threes on 105 attempts, 80.8 percent of his free throws, and 66.7 percent of his shots at the rim. He’ll mostly slide into an off-ball role in the league, making quick shoot-or-pass decisions ideally next to a bigger initiator. He’s also shown some ability to make plays off the bounce and hit pull-up jumpers as a secondary creator. Another fun part of Sheppard’s game is his hit-ahead passing. He’s a good defensive rebounder for a guard, and always has his eyes up looking for an outlet pass. Defensively, Sheppard is capable of some amazing moments: he has impossibly quick and strong hands to generate steals and deflections, and he does well to fight over screens. At 6’2 with a 6’3 wingspan, though, he is sometimes just too small in certain matchups.

While I’m not a fan of the basketball equivalent of “helmet scouting,” there’s certainly a long line of Kentucky guards who have looked even better once they got to the NBA. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey, and Devin Booker were good for Calipari, but much better in the NBA. To me, Dillingham is a top-five player in this class, and the fit would be so much fun playing alongside Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio. Sheppard is a top-10 prospect in this class, but needs to play next to a bigger guard in the backcourt. Houston, who drafted 6’7 athletic freak Amen Thompson last year, feels like perhaps his best match in the top-10.

Matas Buzelis’ case for the top-5

Can Matas Buzelis shoot it from deep? If so, he’s going to be worthy of a top-five pick in this draft.

Buzelis was No. 1 on our preseason board in part because he left high school with a strong reputation as a shooter after an excellent senior year at Sunrise Christian. His transition into the G League has been less smooth. Buzelis was sidelined by an ankle injury at the start of the season, and has struggled to shoot the ball since coming back. On the year, he’s making 26.2 percent of his threes on 84 attempts, and only 68 percent of his free throws. Finally, some shots are starting to fall lately for Buzelis: over his last 10 games, he’s 38.4 percent from three on 26 attempts, though it’s partially because he got hot in one game, going 4-for-4 from deep against the Stockton Kings on Jan. 10.

Buzelis brings a lot to the table as long as he can be counted on to stretch the floor. Listed at 6’10, 209 pounds, he’s a crafty driver who can get into the lane and finish with step-throughs and Eurosteps. He’s good at using his body to create scoring opportunities for himself, sealing smaller defenders in the paint, showing off nice touch from mid-range, and using his length to score in close. Defensively, Buzelis looks better off-the-ball than at the point of attack right now, but he can use his length to be disruptive poking away passes. The shot is really the big piece that will unlock the rest of his game. There’s reason to believe he’ll get there as a shooter eventually.

Ron Holland is worth betting on despite rough season with Ignite

Ron Holland’s season with the G League Ignite is over after thumb surgery. Holland entered this cycle as the arguable front-runner to go No. 1 overall, but after a disastrous 6-31 season with the Ignite, he leaves the program with more questions and answers for NBA evaluators.

During a standout high school career in Texas and with USA Basketball, Holland developed into a top prospect by being the ultimate glue guy: a hyper-aggressive, playmaking defensive forward who could overwhelm opponents with a blitzkrieg of size, athleticism, and an undeniable motor. During his 27 games with the Ignite, Holland took on more offensive creation responsibility than he ever has before, and he often looked overmatched. He put up a team-leading 29.1 percent usage rate, and finished with more turnovers (87) than assists (74). His outside shot looked rough (25 percent from three-point range on 92 attempts), but he still scored with decent efficiency overall (56.7 percent true shooting percentage) because of his skill as a slasher.

There’s still a lot to like about Holland: at 6’8, 207 pounds, he’s a high level slashing prospect who can generate paint touches and draw fouls or finish at the rim. He has awesome speed in the open floor, and should make a living turning defense into offense. He has the tools to be a potential wing-stopper in the NBA, he just needs to get a little more disciplined. Holland’s motor remains as elite as ever, he just doesn’t always know who to best channel it. Keep in mind that he’s one of the youngest prospects in this class with a July 7, 2005 birthday. Holland just has a lot of traits that are worth betting on despite the poor decision-making and outside shooting he showed with the Ignite this year. I’m sticking with him in my top-five.

Tyler Smith is a lottery talent

While Buzelis and Holland had underwhelming seasons with the Ignite, 6’11 forward Tyler Smith emerged as the big winner from the program. Coming over from Overtime Elite, Smith showed an enticing combination of three-point shooting and above-the-rim finishing. At 6’10 with a 7’1 wingspan, Smith has a beautiful lefty shooting stroke with deep range and the numbers to back it up. Through 33 games, he’s made 39.8 percent of his threes, 75 percent of his free throws, and has 62 percent true shooting. He’s deadly off the catch, and has the size to shoot over closeouts from smaller defenders. He has impressive flashes of movement shooting coming off screens, and could be a major weapon as a pick-and-pop threat. Smith can also had a bunch of dunks this year, showing good quickness off the floor as a leaper to finish in close. What’s really impressive is that Smith had such a good year despite the Ignite lacking a true point guard to help set him up. Teams will wish he played with more force as a defender and rebounder, but the combination of size and offensive skill at 19 years old is intriguing enough for lottery looks.

Johnny Furphy breaks out for Kansas

Kansas felt like they were playing with four players at the start of the season. The four-man unit of Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar, Hunter Dickinson, and K.J. Adams were a championship foundation, but the Jayhawks had no depth and a gaping hole with their fifth starter. Midway through January, Bill Self made the move to start Furphy, a 6’9 Australian freshman. Furphy has exploded, giving the Jayhawks more length and more shooting while also providing some transition scoring. After scoring in double-figures only twice in his first 15 games, Furphy has now done it in nine of his last 10 games. On the season, he’s making 38.7 percent of his first 93 attempts from three-point range. Furphy, who turns 20 in Dec., still needs to grow into his frame, but he has terrific positional size for an NBA wing and a projectable three-point stroke. In this draft, that should make you a lottery pick.

Zach Edey and DaRon Holmes II are too productive to keep out of the first round

Purdue center Zach Edey is set to sweep college basketball’s national player of the year awards for the second straight year. Edey never struck me as an NBA player, but I’m starting to reconsider in a weak class. His production is just too remarkable to discount. At 7’4 with a 7’10 wingspan, Edey is making 83 percent of his shots at the rim, a solid 70 percent of his free throws for his career, and seems to be moving a little better and processing the floor a little more quickly as a passer this season. He’s dominating every all-in-one metric: he’s No. 5 in career BPM since 2008 for players who have played more than 40 college games, and he has a Wilt-like PER of 37.1. Of course there will be concerns about his ability to guard in space, but in a weaker class, his production is so immense that he’s a worthy swing in the later first round.

Dayton big man DaRon Holmes II should be joining Edey on the First-Team All-American list. Holmes is currently No. 2 in KenPom’s Player of the Year metric behind Edey, and he’s grown his game in new ways as a junior. At 6’10 with a 7-foot wingspan, Holmes is a rim runner and shot blocker who has already hammered home 57 dunks this year, one of the top marks in the country. The difference for Holmes this year is he’s shooting it better from three-point range, and he looks more comfortable as a passer. Holmes is 26-for-69 (37.7 percent) from three after never attempting more than 19 threes in a season before this year. His assist rate has jumped from 12.1 percent to 19.2 percent as Dayton has let him act as the hub of the offense more often. An athletic big man who can defend like Holmes and is putting up numbers like this — 20.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.2 blocks per game on 62.7 percent true shooting — deserves to get real first round consideration in this class.