Jim Cramer takes a closer look at today's market rally

My mission is simple to make you money. I’m here to level the playing field for all investors. There’s always a home working somewhere and I promise to help you find it. They have money starts now. Hey, I’m Kramer, welcome to have money. Welcome to Kramer. I’ll do my friends. I’m just trying to make a little money. My job not just entertain, but to put it all in context. So call me at 1800 and 743. CNBC tweet me Jim Kramer. Not all rallies are created equal. Some are just playing better than others. Today’s move with the Dow gaining 254 points just be climbing .87%. And then as that pole voting 1.11% actually did feel better than the, you know, kind of running the mill rally because it was as broad based as you can get. That’s a terrific sign of staying power. But we had a real ticket to get through. So let’s parse what happened today and figure out if the market can keep rebounding, because it’s not clear to me that it will. 1st we came in with a negative oscillator reading -5.64%. Not as negative as it was a couple days before, but still a coil spring. Now you know I follow the SP oscillator religiously. When you have many down days, you can almost always count on a bounce. I like to look at years worth the oscillator. We bounced off oversold levels in August and twice in October of last year at almost the exact same readings. And then the market just roared until this three-week sell off. It’s reassuring that the market can still bounce, isn’t it? Because it means that there’s some rationality to things. But not every oversold bounce has staying power. The oversold oscillator readings in August and in early October did not, in retrospect, indicate indicate a true bottom. Matter of fact, things went right back to being awful. So maybe there’s a bit of cold comfort. Second, the NASDAQ 100 started out marginally higher today. Then again, at 9:48 it plummeted, dropping from 17182 to 1701. Oh, it then bottomed at 11:15, very mysteriously, frankly, and started its way up. This move did, though, break a key pattern that we’ve had for weeks when the market opens up, then starts going down, and then stays down. Nothing in particular happened to turn things around, but the bond market seemed tame. Oil wasn’t running. Unusual for this market, isn’t it? The fact is, the buyers came in because stocks got low enough to tempt them. The SP never went negative. But remember, the real selling carnage has been in the NASDAQ Third, this was really interesting. The market shrugged off the sudden reversal of a Gianna company of Verizon after an up opening. The giant telco company reported in the early morning. The stock initially rallied 3% in the before market trading. Then when the regular market bell rang, the stock still opened up but it was appreciably down from those lofty pre market levels. Verizon then experienced A sickening decline as we realized there were continued customer losses and cash flow disappointed. Almost every line item came in weaker. There could have been a lot of negative read throughs for Verizon, could be a sign of weakness for Apple or the broader consumer, but none of those came up. If the market was looking for reasons to sell off Verizon stocks falling 4.6% would have been an easy one, but it didn’t happen. Absence of a negative 4th. When Tesla goes down, it tends to hurt everything water related. Today though, Tesla’s price cuts $2000 with the price of three of their five models, and it’s continued travails around layoffs and executive departures actually produce rallies among its big competitors, Port and GM. Ford actually led the entire S&P with a 6% gain. Why? The take away here was that people still want cars, they just don’t want Teslas or even EVs in general. We own Ford for the travel trust. And by the way, you can join the CBC Investing Club ahead of Wednesday’s big club meeting to find out more. That’s a noon meeting. Now the Long story short is Ford has the best non electric lineup including hybrids, popular internal combustion engines and yes the F-150 truck line, the greatest selling truck line in history and that’s where the money is going. Hey by the way, Force One of the cheapest stocks the entire speed 500 even if today when you see that kind of action, it means that markets willing to buy cheap either also means to sell a gear 5th Speaking of buying cheap, the financials just keep on even seen that it is a very impressive move. You can see the stocks of JP Morgan and Bank of America to lagers. They’ve come roaring back but nothing comes close to American Express with a 13 point advance last Friday off 1/4 that was initially paid as a disappointment for people reassessed in the stock of fire. You know, it’s almost up another 2 bucks today. Six NVIDIA, the stock bounce. Now listen to this, don’t laugh. This company has lost more than $300 billion market capitalization from the top, almost a straight line. It’s been a hideous, hideous stock as any decline I can recall, frankly, down 10% alone on Friday. Now the stock mounted in advance today, but not enough to raise Friday’s games. Nvidia’s going from being the star of the show to being the go to the game. And I’m not talking about the greatest of all time, of course. We’ve learned from multiple pieces of research today that NVIDIA, the business is doing quite well now. I think the stock finally got cheap enough to start tempting people. I don’t want to make too much of NVIDIA because all high multiple stocks came roaring back today, but if NVIDIA couldn’t rally today, it would have been a horrible sign. Luckily, it didn’t happen. I don’t know how much staying power NVIDIA stock is going to have though tomorrow because after the close tonight, Cadence, a very close partner of NVIDIA, guided down for both sales and earnings. And that is surprisingly bad. I need to dig deeper in this one to see the impact on video because we got multiple reset and videos doing quite well. I don’t get it. 7000 representatives gave Meta and Google a lift by banning tick tock. We don’t know what the Senate will do, but it’s pretty darn good news for our companies. Now, Mark Zuckerberg did a good job designing this Reels viable tick tock competitor. He was involved with it apparently at every step of the way and that will cause his numbers to jump. So I got to tell you that stock could be very interesting again. Even though reports this week, 8th and final development Salesforce was talking to informatic about buying the enterprise software coming for about a little bit of actually about $12 billion. Some argue this potential purchase price would demonstrate a lack of discipline and you get beaten up for it. Salesforce was going back to its old ways, spending like a drunken sailor. Turns out the deals not happen. Companies much more disciplined in the critics thoughts. The stock jump Salesforce could have been crushed important from Attica. Now there are a bunch of counters to all these positives. First of the trusted oscillator is trusted, and it should be. That means we’re going to go up and then down again and then up again and then down again before we reach a good level for an advance. Looks like, AW, we could rally for 10 days before we get punished or even less, but the punishment will come. I think we need to be ready for that. So after a couple days, you got to want to reposition with more cash. I will explain that on Wednesday’s club meeting too because we’re going to do that. 2nd, we have a bunch of bond auctions this week. I am very concerned that we can’t get through the week without a bond sell off. The bonds are very much control here. More on that later. And the only reason we could bounce today is we had a tame bond market. I’d be stunned if bonds don’t move much down in price and up and yield into these three auctions. It’s a two years of five years to seven-year, all which are abnormally large. Now look, if we do get through those auction, we had a good personal consumption expenditures number on Friday, then we deserve to keep going higher. But I think it’s a mighty tough, tough golfer to run through, kind of like that one. But Clint Eastwood, very hard. Third, today’s bounce might just be because nothing happened in the Middle East this weekend. Absence of a negative. I don’t think that’ll continue the case. If you would have been on Peace and Middle East, be my guest. But history says that’s a bad wager. Finally, remember that if a stock goes down 5% and then goes up 5%, you do not get back to even, even though a lot of people seem to be confusing that, you’re still down. We had a lot of stocks that went down a great deal last week. They’re going to have to climb back on the tree a great deal in order to be where they but we are. So if you’re down 5%, you got to go back a little more than five. I think it’s a total order. Another reason why the oscillator reading is a bit of cold cover. So let me give you the bottom line here. Very mixed picture. I think the positives do outweigh the negatives, at least for this moment. History over says it won’t last. So be ready for another decline, raise some cash. When is it going to go back down? I don’t know. Probably should go up first. But there’s just a lot to worry about and I don’t want you to think or get complacent. Let’s go to Sharon in Minnesota. Sharon. Oh, yeah. Jim, I’m a club member and I have a question about ELF. I know that Elsa got hit, but do you think that ELF has a buy hold or sell? OK, so ELF is a high multiple stock that didn’t used to be and yet it was up today. So I have. First of all, Sharon, thank you. Very. Remember the club. I hope to see you on the Wednesday club meeting. But ELF is good. Elf is other than the chart pattern, which is not that good, but we, we spoke, we spoke to, to Tarang. I mean, just, I don’t know, less than 10 days ago and things are really, really strong. So I would like to you to be in that stock. Let’s go to Trey in Texas. Trey Jim, I rage canceled my auto policy on notice of an 8% premium increase only to discover a lapse in coverage can be far more detrimental. My new 90% higher rate paired with effective anger resolution classes has really put a strain on my budget as insurance companies are doing far better than I am. I wanted to see if you think I should buy Progressive here and share the yes. The answer is absolutely yes. And not just because the the anger management thing, which is really something I don’t know a thing about. You’d have to help me with that. But I will tell you this, the progressives doing incredibly well, by the way, they are the most AI oriented of all the insurers. Interesting, isn’t it? They price really, really well now. All right, listen to me. I think the positive for the moment in this market outweigh the negatives. Well, that cadence took my breath away. Remember, they are the partner of NVIDIA. But history says it won’t last. Anyway. Made money tonight. What’s driving in assets? Recent downturn including some Supermicro is 23% drop of Friday. How many of you might take? I think it’s going to surprise you then Netflix. No chill at the company’s post earnings decline. I’m examining the bull and the bear case for the company. And Gold just had its worst day since February 2023. But after this year’s run up, is it time to consider the yellow metal? I’m going to sit down with the CEO of Barrick Gold. The stocks aren’t doing that well, I know to get maybe make a little sense of the action. How about that? So stay with Kramer, don’t miss a second of Mad money. Follow at Jim Cramer on X Have a question? Tweet Kramer hashtag MAD mentions. Send Jim an e-mail to [email protected] or give us a call at one 807 four three CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.