It’s a cauldron of Hindutva, castes and personalities in Phase 5 of Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh

Defence minister Rajnath Singh is the BJP candidate from Lucknow which goes to polls in the fifth phase on May 20.

The fifth phase of the Lok Sabha (LS) elections for which the nomination process began in Uttar Pradesh on Friday is politically significant for the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress that has an alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) under the INDIA bloc’s banner in the state.

The 14 constituencies in the fifth phase include Mohanlal Ganj (SC), Lucknow, Rae Barelli, Amethi, Jalaun (SC), Jhansi, Hamirpur, Banda, Fatehpur, Kaushambi (SC), Barabanki (SC), Faizabad, Kaiserganj and Gonda. The voting for all these seats will take place on May 20.

These constituencies cover a diverse range of regions in central and eastern Uttar Pradesh, besides Bundelkhand. Religion, caste and personalities will all be at play in this phase, which has more seats than the four earlier rounds.

In 2019, the BJP won 13 of 14 seats, including the Gandhi bastion Amethi. The only seat it could not win was Rae Bareli, another Congress stronghold.

Historically, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have not been dominant in most of these constituencies. The SP has never won Lucknow, Rae Bareli and Amethi and has managed victory in Jaunpur, Jhansi, Hamirpur, Fatehpur, Kaushambi and Faizabad only once.

The BSP has never been able to open its account in eight of the 14 constituencies. They include Mohanlal Ganj, Lucknow, Rae Bareil, Amethi, Jhansi, Kaushambi, Kaiserganj and Gonda. The BSP has emerged victorious only once in Jalaun, Hamirpur and Faizabad.

The Congress has not been able make a comeback in Mohanlal Ganj, Lucknow, Jalaun, Hamirpur, Fatehpur and Kaiserganj since 1984 and in Gonda since 1989.

Though the nomination process for the fifth phase has commenced, the Congress and the BJP have not named their candidates for Rae Bareli. The Congress has not named its candidate for Amethi either, where the BJP’s sitting MP and Union minister Smriti Irani is the BJP’s pick again.

In 2019, Congress candidate Sonia Gandhi won the Rae Barelli seat by defeating the BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh.

Gandhi vs Gandhi in Rae Bareli?

Having held the seat since 2004, Sonia Gandhi has opted out of the contest in Rae Bareli on health grounds and moved to the Rajya Sabha. Now, both the Congress and the BJP are waiting for each other to make the first move as far as the announcement of candidates is concerned.

It is widely believed that Priyanka Gandhi may contest from this family seat as her mother’s political heir. The BJP, on the other hand, is said to be persuading Varun Gandhi to take on a Gandhi family candidate who may be fielded by the Congress. There is also speculation about the BJP fielding Aparna Yadav, the daughter-in-law of the late Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Will Rahul Gandhi challenge

Smriti Irani in Amethi?

Having won the Amethi family seat for three consecutive terms in 2004, 2009 and 2014, Congress leader Rahul lost the seat to Irani in 2019.

Irani is once again the BJP’s nominee in Amethi, but the Congress is yet to lay its cards on the table. The indications, however, are that Rahul Gandhi, sitting MP from Wayanad in Kerala, would return to Amethi as his party’s candidate.

Suspense over Kaiserganj

The BJP is yet to name its Kaiserganj candidate though six-time MP and former Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) chief Braj Bhushan Singh is keen to contest here.

Faizabad, a test of BJP’s Hindutva plank

Ayodhya, the centre of Hindutva politics for decades comes under the Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency, which has never been the BJP’s stronghold in the true sense. The Congress captured this seat in 2009, BSP won it in 2004 and the SP in 1998. The BJP won the seat in 1991, 1996, 2014 and 2019.

In 2019, the BJP’s Lallu Singh retained the seat, defeating SP’s Anand Sen by securing 48,65% of votes. Buoyed by construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, the BJP hopes to win this seat with a huge margin in 2024.

BJP hopes to win Lucknow by a landslide

The Lucknow parliamentary constituency is the BJP’s citadel. The party has never lost this seat since 1991. Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee won this prestigious seat five times in a row between 1991 and 2004. BJP veteran and defence minister Rajnath Singh won the seat in 2014 and 2019. With no prominent candidate facing him, Rajnath Singh is expected to make a hattrick.

Pasi voters hold key in

Mohanlal Ganj, Barabanki

In the adjoining Mohanlal Ganj constituency, BJP candidate and Union minister of state Kaushal Kishore is trying his luck for the third term in a row. Challenging him are the SP’s RK Chaudhary and the BSP’s Rajesh Kumar.

Pasis form a dominant chunk of voters in this reserved constituency.

Barabanki, another seat adjoining Lucknow, had the tendency of changing winners each time. The BJP won the seat in 2014 and retained it in 2019. Pasis among the SCs and Kurmi voters among OBCs are decisive in the constituency. There are over 20% Muslim voters here.

In 2024, the BJP replaced its sitting MP Upendra Singh Rawat with Rajrani Rawat. The Congress has fielded Tanuj Punia, son of former bureaucrat and Congress leader PL Punia, who was elected MP from the same constituency in 2009.

In Gonda, the BJP’s Kirti Vardhan Singh is in the fray for the third consecutive term. Challenging him is the SP’s Shreya Verma.

In Fatehpur, BJP’s Niranjan Jyoti defeated BSP’s Sukh Lal Verma with 54% of the votes in 2019. The BJP has relied on its sitting MP this time too.

Jalaun, Jhansi, Hamirpur and Banda in Bundelkhand went to the BJP in 2014 and 2019.

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