ISW assesses territory captured by Russian army in Ukraine in 2024

Photo: Russian army has seized 505 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory (Getty Images)

The Russian army has seized 505 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory since launching offensive operations in October 2023, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to ISW estimates, Russian forces gained almost 100 more square kilometers of territory between January 1 and March 28, 2024, than in the last three months of 2023. This rate of advance may be due to a combination of Ukrainian materiel shortages and more conducive weather conditions in the winter than in the fall.

“This marginal increase in the rate of Russian advance is not reflective of the threat of Russian operational success amid continued delays in US security assistance, however,” the report says.

According to the Institute, materiel constraints limit how Ukrainian forces can conduct effective defensive operations while also offering Russian forces flexibility in how to conduct offensive operations, which can lead to opportunities for Russian forces to make operationally significant gains in the future.

“The arrival of sufficient and regular Western security assistance and the resolution of Ukrainian manpower challenges would narrow these opportunities for Russian forces and provide Ukrainian forces with the ability to stop Russian forces from making even marginal tactical gains, to degrade Russian offensive capabilities, and to prepare for future counteroffensive operations to liberate more Ukrainian territory,” the report says.

Frontline situation

The past few months have been challenging for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Particularly on February 17, they had to withdraw from Avdiivka, which they had been defending since the onset of the full-scale invasion. Subsequently, Russian forces managed to seize several more settlements in the vicinity of the city.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared on March 11 that the Armed Forces had managed to stop the advance of the Russian army. According to the head of state, the situation on the frontline is much better “than in the last three months.” Commenting on the situation around Avdiivka, the President explained that the Russian forces did not capture it, but simply destroyed it and then entered.