Is Iceland's volcano about to erupt again? Magma accumulating beneath Svartsengi has reached such high levels it could burst at any second - as experts warn it's 'not very wise' to spend the night nearby

• Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula has already seen three eruptions since December
• READ MORE: Amazing snap shows Iceland’s volcanic eruption from space

Iceland is already reeling from three volcanic eruptions in as many months, but there could soon be more to come.

Scientists warn that magma is once again accumulating beneath Svartsengi in the Reykjanes Peninsula, a volcanic hotspot southwest of capital Reykjavik.

According to the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO), the volume of magma beneath Svartsengi is reaching similar level as prior to last eruptions between December and earlier this month.

Svartsengi is the location of a geothermal power plant and the popular Blue Lagoon spa, which has only just fully reopened to visitors.

An eruption could start at very short notice, even less than 30 minutes, and experts warn it’s ‘not very wise’ to spend the night nearby.

Scientists warn that magma is once again accumulating beneath Svartsengi in the Reykjanes Peninsula, a volcanic hotspot southwest of capital Reykjavik. Pictured, a lava field covering a road to the Blue Lagoon, while the Svartsengi Geothermal Power Plant can be seen in the background

READ MORE: See Iceland’s volcanic eruption from SPACE 

According to the IMO, an eruption could once again threaten the town of Grindavik, whose residents have only just been able to return, following evacuations in December and January.

Signs that magma is making its way to the surface would appear in ‘sudden, localized and intense micro-seismic activity’, the office added.

‘If the seismic activity goes to the south towards Grindavík, it will take a little longer, so there will be some warning about it,’ Kristín Jónsdóttir, a natural hazards specialist at IMO, told Vísir.

‘But we’re talking about maybe half an hour, an hour which is very short notice.

‘The meteorological office assesses that there is considerable danger, and I would say that it is not very wise to spend the night in Grindavík.’

According to calculations from IMO, there’s around 268 million cubic feet (7.6 million cubic metres) of magma accumulated under Svartsengi, as of Monday.

The probability of an eruption increases when the volume has reached between 8 to 13 million cubic meters – and if magma accumulation continues in the same way, it could reach this lower limit on Tuesday.

Since November thousands of Icelanders were evacuated from their homes in the town of Grindavik and the surrounding areas due to their proximity to the volcano on the Reykjanes peninsula

Volcanic eruption near Grindavik, Reykjanes peninsula, Iceland 14 January 2024, as seen from a Coast Guard helicopter

According to the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO), the volume of magma beneath Svartsengi is reaching similar level as prior to last eruptions (pictured north of Grindavík)

An aerial view shows the lava from the eruption in Feb. that almost reached the protective barrier of the Svartsengi powerplant following the volcano eruption in Grindavik town of Iceland on February 20, 2024

READ MORE: The sounds that hinted Iceland’s volcano was ready to blow

‘We are quite worried that if there is an eruption in the next few days, it will be difficult to evacuate these places,’ Hjördís Guðmundsdóttir, communications director of civil defense, told mbl.is.

‘The warning can be very short and no one can say exactly where the eruption will occur.

‘We know that people are in the town and the Blue Lagoon, but we have warning sirens in place that will be blown if there is a reason for it.’

What’s more, seismic activity – a warning sign that an eruption may be imminent – has increased slightly over the weekend with the highest activity just east of Sýlingarfell.

It is comparable to the seismic activity seen in the days before an eruption, IMO said.

Iceland had to declare a state of emergency following eruptions in the region, occurring on December 18-21, January 14 and February 8 – and although property and infrastructure have been damaged there’s been no fatalities.

In January, lava from the most dangerous eruption travelled to the edge of town and destroyed at least three houses.

And following the February 8 eruption, lava struck a key hot water pipe leading from the Svartsengi geothermal power plant.

Seismic activity is a warning sign that an eruption may be imminent. This image shows the past earthquakes from February 23 to February 26. Red line shows eruption from February 8 and dark red lines show eruptions from January 2024 and December 2023

February 8: Lava flows from the eruption travelled 2.8 miles (4.5 km) west, hitting a key hot water pipe (pictured) near the Blue Lagoon tourist attraction

View of the Svartsengi geothermal power plant, near the evacuated town of Grindavik, in Iceland, December 22, 2023

In Gridavik, the biggest risks are the formation of sinkholes and earthquakes caused by ‘fault movement’, while closer to the lava flows experts warn of toxic gas.

For many locals, the episode has revived the trauma of the disastrous explosion at another of Iceland’s volcanoes, Eyjafjallajokull, back in 2010.

While the eruption 13 years ago didn’t kill anyone, it did produce a huge cloud of ash that prompted the biggest global aviation shutdown since World War II.

‘Eyjafjallajokull in 2010 was actually a small eruption but it happened on a volcano underneath an ice cap,’ Dr Carmen Solana, a volcanologist at the University of Portsmouth, told MailOnline.

‘The interaction of magma with ice, increased the explosivity, broke the magma into very small pieces of ash that went into the atmosphere.

‘This is not the scenario that we’re looking at here.’

How a volcanic eruption in 2010 sparked almost a month of chaos for European air travel  

A volcanic eruption in Iceland in 2010 sparked the worst air travel disruption since the Second World War.

Chaos descended within the European travel industry when an unfortunate series of phenomenons combined from a number of relatively small volcanic events at Eyjafjallajokull, on the south side of the island.

Seismic activity had started at the end of 2009 and had intensified up until March 20, when the volcano – which is covered by an ice cap – finally erupted.

The eruption was small – just one out of seven on the scale used to measure eruptions. Globally, it appeared a relatively small event at the time.

But around five days later, scientists began to notice unusual activity.

They found evidence at magma was flowing from underneath the crust into Eyjafjallajokull’s magma chamber and that pressure stemming from the process caused a huge crustal displacement.

While the eruption began as an effusive eruption – where lava runs from the volcano along the ground – the volcano then entered an explosive stage on April 14. This time, the explosion was measured as a four on the volcanic scale

Meanwhile, ice surrounding the volcano started melting and began flooding into the volcano.

This rapid cooling caused the magma to shear into fine and jagged ash particles.  It also increased the volcano’s explosive power.

While the eruption began as an effusive eruption – where lava runs from the volcano along the ground – the volcano then entered an explosive stage on April 14. This time, the explosion was measured as a four on the volcanic scale.

A huge ash cloud was fired into the air, reaching up to nine kilometres in height. Around 250 million cubic metres of volcanic material was also spewed into the air as a result of the explosion.

To make matters worse, the volcano was directly under a jet stream and the rapid cooling from the ice water gave the volcano enough power to shoot the ash directly into it.

The jet stream was also unusually stable at the time and sent ash particles from the volcano continuously southeast – towards Europe.

From April 14-20, ash from the volcanic eruption covered large areas of Northern Europe.

About 20 countries closed their airspace to commercial jet traffic and it affected approximately 10 million travellers, with nearly 100,000 flights to and from and within Europe cancelled across the six day period.

The Airport Operators Association (AOA) estimated that airports lost £80 million over the six-and-a-half days, while the knock-on disruption lasted for around a month.

In the United Kingdom alone thirteen travel firms collapsed during the summer of 2010. The ash cloud disruption was cited as one of the contributing factors.

A huge ash cloud was fired into the air, reaching up to nine kilometres in height. Around 250 million cubic metres of volcanic material was also spewed into the air as a result of the explosion

Several sports matches were postponed, while Liverpool football club had to travel by coach to Madrid in order to play a match in the Europa League.

While the travel disruption mostly ran throughout April, volcanic activity continued at Eyjafjallajokull until October, when scientists declared the eruption was over.

In 2011, a volcano under the Vatnajökull glacier sent thousands of tonnes of ash into the sky in a few days, raising concerns of a repeat of the travel chaos seen across northern Europe.

Though the explosion was larger than Eyjafjallajokull, the impact was not as wide-spread.

A total of 900 flights (out of 90,000 in Europe) were cancelled as a result of the eruption in the period May 23-25.

In 2014, Bárðarbunga erupted in what was the biggest eruption in Iceland in more than 200 years. However, only local travel was impacted as a result.

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