LeBron James 40k points prediction: Odds for when and how the Lakers superstar will surpass the NBA milestone

LeBron James 40k points prediction: Odds for when and how the Lakers superstar will surpass the NBA milestone

LeBron James is inching closer to another historical and unprecedented career feat. The NBA’s all-time leading scorer will soon become the first player to ever reach 40,000 career regular-season points.

Naturally, anything involving LeBron and history generates plenty of interest in the NBA universe and the world of betting alike. So, it comes as no surprise that BetMGM has posted odds for King James’ upcoming feat, including when and how the 40,000th point will be scored.

The “when” of the equation will likely be sometime during the Lakers’ six-game home stand, from February 29 vs. the Wizards through March 10 vs. the Wolves. As of Wednesday, Feb. 28, Bron has 39,926, 74 away from 40K.

MORE: Tracking LeBron James’ path to 40,000 regular season points

The “how” of the equation seems even more fun to ponder. LeBron passed fellow Lakers legend Kareem Adbul-Jabbar for most points of all time in February of last year with a fall-away jump shot. Could he go for a dunk to slam down his 40,000th point at the tender age of 39? Maybe a three to signify his improved shooting as well as the shot of the era?

These kinds of niche betting markets always make for a good time, so let’s take a look at the BetMGM odds and lock in some bets before they disappear like all of the previous records LeBron has shattered over the past 21 seasons.

LeBron James 40k points odds: When will Lakers superstar surpass the milestone?

Assuming he doesn’t go for 70-plus against the Clippers, we might be able rule out Thursday’s Wizards game almost immediately. The chances LeBron plays on the tail-end of a back-to-back could be slim. The King has missed time recently with left ankle peroneal tendinopathy.

And if he did play, LeBron probably wouldn’t clear 74 combined points between the Clippers and Wizards games. He averages 25 points per game on the season, and he has dropped 28 and 30 most recently against the Spurs and Suns, respectively.

Let’s say LeBron scores 25 against the Clippers to cut it to 49 remaining until 40K. If he sits out the Wizards game, and scores between 24-30 points against the reigning-champion Nuggets on March 2, he will be just 19-25 points shy of 40,000 entering a big NBA TV game against the Thunder, who sit alongside the Timberwolves atop the Western Conference standings.

MORE LAKERS: Betting preview vs. Clippers

Many pundits seem to think Bron will go for it against Nikola Jokic and the defending-champion Nuggets, the team that swept L.A. out of the playoffs in the Western Conference Finals last year. However, that would most likely require James to play both halves of the back-to-back.

The Thunder are big fish to fry, too, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been right up there with Jokic in terms of MVP candidacy. Bron hitting 40,000 against one of the best teams in the NBA on an otherwise-sleepy Monday would completely dominate the sports headlines for the week. It’s all about the legacy, baby!

LeBron James 40k points prediction, odds: How will the King surpass the milestone?

This one’s just fun, and not something we recommend you dump a ton of your bankroll into unless you’re rolling in money. Most NBA fans know that LBJ swished a turnaround J in Thomas Bryant’s face to pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for most NBA points ever, which would have fallen into the “Other” category here. Maybe we’re in for a different method for Bron’s 40,000th?

The two we’re leaning toward here are Dunk (+550) and 3-Point Field Goal (+300).

A dunk would be a ferocious way for a 39-year-old to reach 40K, and it would epitomize how much of a freak athletic specimen and exception to the aging rule LeBron has been. We’ve never seen someone quite as powerful a downhill scorer as LeBron, and we’ve never seen a 39-year-old look and play like him. So, why not a dunk?

On the other hand, a 3-point shot might make sense. LeBron’s game has evolved multiple times over. He started his career relying heavily on his strength and athleticism — and while he still has both, he has also greatly developed his outside jumper. It’s also the age of the three, so the always legacy-conscious James would probably love to have a long-range trey as one of his career highlight-reel plays.

The biggest fades here are Layup (+250) and Free Throw (+500) because those are just flat-out boring outcomes and we just don’t see this particular bit of history being made via either shot method.

Let’s face it: anything at the rim will most likely be a dunk. That’s the explosive way of putting home a bunny, and Bron’s shooting 93.8 percent on dunk attempts as opposed to 62.2 percent on layup tries. For highlight and efficiency purposes, we’re fading Layup here.

As for the Free Throw potential, that’s a heavy fade. Bron and the Lakers haven’t been getting a ton of calls lately, anyway (they’ve taken 15.7 free throws per game over their past three games) and both the Nuggets and Thunder are pretty good and intelligent defensive squads so they won’t let a guy reach history with a dumb foul.

No matter when or how LeBron reaches 40,000, it’s going to be must-see TV and something no true NBA fan will ever forget. Good luck with your Bron 40K bets, and enjoy the show!