India’s muslim population rose over 43% from 1950-2015: EAC-PM working paper

08/05/2024

India has witnessed a reduction in the share of the majority religious population by 7.81 percent from 1950-2015 with the share of the Muslim population rising 43.15 percent during the same period. The decline in the majority population is only next to Myanmar which witnessed a 10 percent decline, among the 167 countries analysed in a working paper published by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) members.

“India witnessed a reduction in the share of the majority religious denomination by 7.81 percent from 1950-2015 (from 84.68 percent to 78.06 percent). The share of Muslim population in 1950 was 9.84 percent and increased to 14.09 percent in 2015, a 43.15 percent increase in their share. Within the immediate neighborhood of South Asia, India has witnessed the biggest decline in the majority population only next to Myanmar,” the working paper said.

The paper is authored by EAC-PM member Shamika Ravi, Apurv Kumar Mishra, Consultant, EAC-PM, and Abraham Jose, Professional, EAC-PM.

“Contrary to the noise in several quarters, 28 careful analysis of the data shows that minorities are not just protected but indeed thriving in India. This is particularly remarkable given the wider context within the South Asian neighborhood where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Afghanistan,” it said.

The working paper uses demographic data from the Religious Characteristics of States Dataset Project – Demographics published by the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA) in 2019.

The share of minorities as a composite group has increased significantly. In particular, India has witnessed an increase in the shares of Muslim, Christian, Buddhist and Sikh populations and a decline in the shares of Jain and Parsi populations.

The share of the Christian population rose from 2.24 percent to 2.36 percent, an increase of 5.38 percent between 1950 and 2015. The share of the Sikh population increased from 1.24 percent in 1950 to 1.85 percent in 2015, a 6.58 percent rise in their share. Even the share of the Buddhist population witnessed a noticeable increase from 0.05 percent in 1950 to 0.81 percent.

On the other hand, the share of Jains in the population of India decreased from 0.45 percent in 1950 to 0.36 percent in 2015. The share of the Parsi population in India witnessed a stark 85 percent decline, reducing from 0.03 percent share in 1950 to 0.004 percent in 2015, it said.

“India’s performance suggests that there is a conducive environment to foster diversity in the society. It is not possible to promote better life outcomes for the disadvantaged sections of society without providing a nurturing environment and societal support through a bottom-up approach,” the paper said.

India is one of the few countries that has a legal definition of minorities and provides constitutionally protected rights for them. The outcomes of these progressive policies and inclusive institutions are reflected in the growing number of minority populations within India.

Increasing Muslim majority

“This is particularly remarkable given the wider context within the South Asian neighborhood where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Afghanistan. It is not surprising, therefore, that minority populations from across the neighborhood come to India during times of duress,” it said.

On the Indian subcontinent, all the Muslim-majority countries witnessed an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination except Maldives where the share of the majority group (Shafi’i Sunnis) declined by 1.47 percent.

In Bangladesh, there was an 18 percent increase in the share of the majority religious group which is the largest such increase in the Indian subcontinent. Pakistan witnessed an increase of 3.75 percent in the share of the majority religious denomination (Hanafi Muslim) and a 10 percent increase in the share of the total Muslim population despite the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. Only Sri Lanka and Bhutan among non-Muslim majority countries have witnessed an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination between 1950 and 2015.

India has been a nourishing environment for the Tibetian Buddhists who had to escape from China and have found a comfortable home in India in the last six decades. Similarly, Matuas who took refuge in India due to religious persecution in Bangladesh have been assimilated into Indian society. India also hosts a significant population of refugees from Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Afghanistan. Given its plural, liberal and democratic nature, India has continued its civilisational tradition of harboring persecuted populations from several countries over the last six decades.

Among non-Muslim majority countries, Myanmar, India, and Nepal saw a decline in the share of the majority religious denomination. Myanmar witnessed the steepest decline of the majority religious group in the region with the share of Theravada Buddhist population declining by 10 percent in the period under study.

Of the three major religions in Nepal, the share of the majority Hindu population declined by 4 percent, the share of the Buddhist population declined by 3 percent, while the Muslim population increased by 2 percent, the working paper said.

The authors in the paper said that they are interested in noting the composition of demographic changes in these countries because of their geographical proximity to India. Therefore, any significant fluctuation in their population has a spillover effect on the polity and policies of India.

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