Indian Wells crowns for Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Świątek come as tennis starts exciting era after dominance of Big Three and Serena Williams

When Nick Kyrgios went on Logan Paul’s podcast (please don’t leave) he was asked who he thought the greatest tennis player of all time was.

He rattled through Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and settled on Novak Djokovic. Co-host Mike Majlak questioned: “So no Sampras, no McEnroe, Agassi — none of those guys?”

Kyrgios seemed almost baffled by the interjection, shaking his head and emphatically answering: “No way.”

And he’s right.

Even aside from the very US-centric framing of the question, Pete Sampras and John McEnroe combined have just one more slam than Federer — the least prolific of the vaunted “Big Three”.

Nadal is equal to Andre Agassi plus Jimmy Connors plus Boris Becker, while Djokovic’s 24-slam tally is a Frankenstein’s monster of Björn Borg’s 11, Mats Wilander’s seven and Stefan Edberg’s six.

[top men graph]

They’re simply on another plane of tennis greatness since tennis turned professional in the late 1960s.

In the Open Era, 61 women have won grand slam titles, and 59 men.

Of the 454 grand slam singles titles up for grabs in the Open Era, only 22 women and 22 men have won more than two of them, making up a whopping 77.5 per cent (352) of the total major singles titles.

The 22 women with three or more major crowns account for 174 of 227 titles, and that number is 178 for the men.

There are five champions who have slam tallies in the double digits on each side of the draw — they own 92 of the women’s trophies and 91 of the men’s.

[pie charts]

But it’s the historical spread that differentiates the two tours.

Of the five women with double-digit major tallies, Margaret Court (11 in the Open Era) handed over to Chris Evert (18) in the mid-70s, Martina Navratilova (18) dominated the 80s, Steffi Graf (22) had the 90s and Serena Williams (23) the 2000s and 2010s.

Of the five GOAT contenders on the men’s side, all but one — 11-time winner Björn Borg — started winning from 1990 onwards.

[GOAT wins by decade graph]

The gap between Federer’s first major and Djokovic’s is less than five years, with Nadal’s debut slam crammed in between, and the latter two had a mortgage on majors through the 2010s.

In 2024, Federer and Williams are long since retired, Nadal is struggling to get back on court for longer than a single match, and even 36-year-old Djokovic is without a title through the first three months of the year for the first (non-vaccination-related) time since 2018.

The last-standing member of the Big Three is still the world number one, but the entire draw has seen him bleed.

Of the current top 10, only two have never beaten Djokovic. He lost in the Australian Open semis for the first time and last week dropped a match to someone outside the top 100 for just the second time in six years (the last one coming in the midst of his visa drama in early 2022).

The tide isn’t turning, it’s turned. And with it, so too must our expectations and understanding of what greatness is.

Elite rivalries and depth to boot

Since Serena’s 23rd and final grand slam title at the 2017 Australian Open, 17 different women have won the 27 trophies on offer, with a few players raising their heads above the pack in the two years since Ash Barty’s retirement.

All the major titles in the 2022 Australian Open, aside from Markéta Vondroušová’s at Wimbledon last year, have been won by the current top four of Iga Świątek, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina. Of that group, two-time Australian Open winner Sabalenka is the oldest at 25 years of age.

Gauff, Sabalenka and Rybakina have also been runners-up in that time and Tunisian Ons Jabeur has made three slam finals without winning. Meanwhile, Naomi Osaka, one of only 17 women in the Open Era with four slams to their name, is on the comeback trail.

[wta rankings]

You could view this as a mini version of the Big Three plus Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka, but the depth of every draw is plain to see.

Of the WTA top 12, only two — fifth-ranked Jessica Pegula and world number nine Maria Sakkari — are yet to make the semis of a slam, but no-one in the top 40 would look out of place in the final four of a major.

Outside the top 10 lurk major winners and finalists Karolína Muchová (11th), Petra Kvitova (18th), Madison Keys (20th), Barbora Krejčíková (21st), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (24th), Victoria Azarenka (30th), Leylah Fernandez (34th) and Karolína Plíšková (39th).

They are all still in or around their primes, with only Kvitova and Azarenka older than 32.

Two months out from the French Open, men’s tennis is also looking more even than at any point in the past 20 years, and we should see a proper shootout at grand slams rather than waiting to see which of the Big Three will lose in the semis every time.

Twenty-two-year-old Jannik Sinner has joined Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev as major winners in their prime, with breakthroughs for strong slam performers like Alex Zverev, Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas feeling almost inevitable, and the likes of Australian Alex de Minaur, Holger Rune, Andrey Rublev, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul behind them.

All the while, 2022 Wimbledon finalist Nick Kyrgios continues his long rehab journey.

[atp rankings]

Indian Wells gives us predictable champions after thrilling draw

For the first time in a long time, every tournament, every week is a contest.

A complete crapshoot would suggest no truly elite talent, but widespread brilliance leads to a comfortable predictability through the first half of the big tournaments, then a thrilling rush to the finish.

Looking at the last eight of the men’s draw at this year’s Indian Wells — often called the “fifth major” — seven spots were populated by the aforementioned contenders, with Czech 32nd seed Jiri Lehecka the only ring-in.

At the previous round in the Californian desert we lost de Minaur, Tsitsipas, Shelton and Fritz, as well as veterans Gael Monfils and Grigor Dimitrov, and bolters Luca Nardi and Fábián Marozsán.

On the women’s side, Świątek, Gauff and Sakkari reached the semifinals, joined by 21-year-old Ukrainian Marta Kostyuk, sporting the 31st-seed tag after an Australian Open quarterfinal and a runner-up finish in San Diego.

Świątek handled Kostyuk the way a champion should, while Sakkari endured back-to-back marathons against Sabalenka slayer Emma Navarro and Gauff to reach the final.

World number one Świątek dominated Sakkari 6-4, 6-0 in the final to remind everyone of her brilliance, and Alcaraz (after handing Sinner his first loss of 2024) did the same with a 7-6(7/5), 6-1 win over Medvedev.

Alcaraz is only 20 years old with a major win on grass and hard court, plus four Masters titles (two on clay, three on hard), displaying all-court brilliance and composure that was perhaps beyond even Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. Meanwhile, Świątek is somehow still just 22, boasting three French Opens and a US Open win, not far off the six-slam tally of Williams at the same age.

They’re lofty heights for both, but we have to be careful not to get carried away.

Approaching tennis with a new ‘reality’

Just as her third-round Australian Open loss to teenager Linda Nosková (avenged at Indian Wells) proved little more than a blip, it’s no cause for alarm if Świątek “fails” to win a third-straight title at Roland Garros in June, about a week after her 23rd birthday.

Five-time grand slam finalist Andy Roddick said on his Served podcast that “we feel entitled to peak performance all of the time, for decades at a time” thanks to Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Williams.

“That’s not real life,” the 2003 US Open winner said.

“They made it their real life, but that’s not the expectation set going forward.”

Roddick told a story from the 2022 US Open of the pressure being heaped on a then-19-year-old Carlos Alcaraz, who at that stage had won just 13 grand slam matches.

“There was a lot of hype around him, and … it was like, ‘Is Alcaraz going to win 10 majors?'” Roddick said.

“I’m like, ‘He hasn’t won a single major yet and you’re putting him ahead of Agassi, Lendl, McEnroe, Connors, Becker, Edberg.’

“The reality with which we approach conversations, or the lack of reality, is insane.”

Alcaraz went on to win that US Open and take down Djokovic to win Wimbledon the next year, so the expectations are unlikely to abate any time soon, but a quarterfinal exit to Zverev at this year’s Australian Open followed by a semifinal loss to the 21st seed in Buenos Aires doesn’t need to be a harbinger for his status as one of the world’s best players.

“He’s allowed to play well sometimes and then play badly six months later. It happens,” Roddick said.

Looking at the past through rose-coloured glasses

It’s worth remembering that after winning the US Open as a 17-year-old in 1999, Williams didn’t win another major in 2000 or 2001, and had slam-less seasons in 2004 and 2006.

Djokovic won his first in 2008, then didn’t win another until a three-slam 2011; Nadal only had two multi-major seasons in the first 14 years of his career; and Federer … well, he was about as consistently amazing in his prime as we all remember, although he didn’t win his first slam until he was 22, making him the latest bloomer of any of these legends.

Maybe Alcaraz will win 10 and join the ranks of Borg and Sampras, or equal his hero Nadal and tear into the 20s. Maybe Świątek stops at four or becomes the next era-defining champion, but that’s all for us to find out.

Right now there are tiers of elite talent and players who can catch fire. There are thrilling youngsters who could be flashes in the pan or starting a new dynasty. But, most importantly, there are no guarantees.

Rather than watching all-time greats get greater, we have the chance to watch a new slate of superstars emerge and establish themselves as this generation’s leaders — emphasis on the “S”.

It’s an exciting road ahead and what this enormous globetrotting sport is supposed to be about.

Enjoy the ride.