Ilham Centre predicts slim PH win in KKB, says PAS not going all out
Ilham Centre said the two-week campaign period in Kuala Kubu Baharu has gone by without much excitement and that the turnout of voters will be a major determining factor.
PETALING JAYA: A think tank has forecast a Pakatan Harapan victory in the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election tomorrow, but expects a close contest between PH’s Pang Sock Tao and Perikatan Nasional’s Khairul Azhari Saut.
Following a survey of 404 respondents, Ilham Centre said the two-week campaign period has gone by without much excitement and that the turnout of voters will be a major determining factor.
It expected voter turnout to be lower than the 69.25% recorded during the state elections last August, where the late Lee Kee Hiong of DAP defended the seat for a third term.
It said the large majority of Malay voters will back PN at the polls while Chinese voters will continue to give PH their support.
Ilham Centre said issues like PAS information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari “flagging” Pang’s vernacular schooling deterred the Chinese from voting for PN.
“Although issues like cost of living, job opportunities and public infrastructure were raised during the campaign, the tendency of voting remains tied to racial polarisation.
“The majority of ethnic Malay voters indicated support for PN despite highly rating the performance of the Selangor government, menteri besar Amirudin Shari and Lee,” it said in a statement.
However, it said PAS has been noticeably more muted in campaigning for Khairul, of Bersatu. It said PAS has not fully mobilised its machinery on the campaign trail despite being the backbone of PN.
It also said questions have been raised about the performance of PN’s Hulu Selangor MP Hasnizan Harun, Batang Kali assemblyman Muhaimin Harith Abdullah Sani and Hulu Bernam assemblyman Mu’izzuddeen Mahyuddin.
On the other hand, it said, Umno’s election machinery had done a much better job compared to during the six state elections, and that they had done well to convince their traditional voters.
“A number of Umno members who voted against (PH and Barisan Nasional) have come to terms with the partnership with PH. The biggest factor is they do not benefit from being in the opposition and that PN has not gone to the ground after the polls,” it said.
Ilham Centre also said the majority of Indian voters, whom many have predicted will be the “kingmakers” for this by-election, were likely to vote for PH again.
While dissatisfaction with the government’s performance was a major theme in the first week of campaigning, it said, there was a turning point after Putrajaya announced resolutions to housing issues involving five estates.
“Residents who were offered this solution to their housing problem appear to have placed their trust in the government, indicating where their votes will go tomorrow,” it said.
It also said the Orang Asli voters in Kuala Kubu Baharu, numbering more than 1,000, were likely to back the government’s candidate, adding that PN has found it difficult to penetrate into the community.
The think tank said the respective tok batins, or village chiefs, were key in directing the community on who to support.
“Therefore, we project PH, represented by DAP, to have a slight edge in winning the by-election, defending the seat from falling into the opposition’s hands.”