Thoughts after Toronto’s Game 3 loss: Go to the net, Mitch

Much of the discussion in the aftermath of the Maple Leafs’ Game 3 loss to the Boston Bruins has rightly focused on Toronto’s futile power play, which has repeatedly failed to put goals on the board this post-season, and in post-seasons past.

The solution is to use Mitch Marner on the goal line.

Right now, without William Nylander on the flank, Marner is left handling the puck. Since he’s never been a shooting threat from the flank, the Bruins are playing off him, taking away his passing lanes, and it’s leading Marner to turnovers. Meantime, Morgan Rielly rarely shoots, and it’s tough to work it to John Tavares in the bumper against Boston’s defence. Even getting the puck to Tyler Bertuzzi – who isn’t exactly a gifted finisher – is proving ineffective. That only leaves them with one shot option, and it’s Auston Matthews, so the Bruins have taken him away and it’s nullifying Toronto’s power play.

Moving Marner low would instantly make Tavares a pop-out shot option and add a dimension. Marner could also take it behind the net and hit Matthews on the other side, forcing the PK to shift. And he has amazing hands in tight, so he could also take it in to the net from down low.

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Nylander usually plays the flank and is a threat to shoot, which automatically moves Marner low. Right now, having Marner on the flank eliminates the weapons Toronto does have without Boston having to do much.

One other thing with that…

Go forward Mitch Marner

I mentioned how playing on the goal line might allow Marner the chance to take it to the net, which for him would be a very, very good thing.

When the Leafs lost in last year’s playoffs, I wrote about how their core players struggled to get in close to the net. But really, Marner was a wild outlier compared to the other three. These were their average shot distances (measured in feet from the net on average) in last year’s playoffs, compared to the regular season:

And the percentage of their shots that were from the slot were mostly worse compared to the regular season, too. Matthews got better, but the rest not so much:

Well, it’s happening again this season, albeit over a very small sample.

Here’s the Leafs’ average shooting distance among the three core forwards who’ve played in the playoffs so far, comparing playoffs to regular season:

And the percentage of their shots that are coming from the slot:

We think of Marner as a pure passer because he’s elite at it, but he’s also scored over 90 times the past three seasons. That ain’t gonna happen from the outside, so being on the goal line on the power play may help Marner get to better finishing spots.

Why Brodie needs to come in for Liljegren

I’ll make this short because I wrote about it after their last game, but Toronto’s penalty kill is getting stuffed in a locker through three games. TJ Brodie is in the press box and they trusted him to kill 199 minutes of 4-on-5 time this season, more than any other Leaf. Next most was Jake McCabe at 153, and nobody else was over 100. Brodie is their clear PK1 defenceman.

That means he’s gone up against almost all PP1 units this season, and his underlying results are still as good or better than any of the other Leaf killers in those tough minutes.

I love the physical nature Toronto’s blue line has right now and don’t want to give that up, so the obvious name to come out is Timothy Liljegren. The two reasons I’ve heard for why he should stay in is 1) he can skate the puck out, and 2), he’s right-handed.

Well, being right-handed didn’t help Liljegren when he got eaten up and turned the puck over before the Bruins’ game-winning goal, and I haven’t seen him skate many pucks up the rink. He’s been fine, not bad. But the need to get one more penalty kill makes Brodie the preferred option.

Why the Leafs’ physical play and defending gives them hope

The Bruins scored three times against a goalie in Game 3, but you can’t call the first one a breakdown, Samsonov should have had it. And the second goal was a power play goal against. Brad Marchand‘s winner came off a broken play where some Leafs were off their assignment by a few feet.

But by-and-large, Toronto’s defending in this series has been excellent, maybe partially aided by Boston’s lack of firepower. The Leafs have been exceedingly physical, David Pastrnak has been given a rough ride, and you can see how this could and should work in their favour, with the Bruins seeming to be frustrated at times.

If they defend like they have so far in this series the rest of the way – without cheating and getting away from what’s been a positive so far – the Leafs will get enough chances to score and win.

Their fourth line has been all you could ask for

Ryan Reaves has been everything the Leafs could’ve hoped for, and Connor Dewar too. Reaves has been physical, but more importantly, fast enough to get in on the forecheck with David Kampf. That means the fourth line has spent a big percentage of its time in the offensive zone.

If Nylander comes in, I’d be shocked if they took out anyone out from this line. It’ll have to be Nick Robertson.

I’m fine with Bertuzzi/Marchand if it removes the side show for everyone else

When you think of the great “rat” jobs in the playoffs, it’s usually guys getting under the skin of very important players. Marchand quite famously rabbit-punched Daniel Sedin several times after a whistle in the 2011 Stanley Cup Final, to very little response.

But the reality is, Marchand was a 67-point forward this season. If you don’t let him have access to the rental space in the brains of your elite stars, he’s just another good player to be considered, but not obsessed over.

So I’m fine if Marchand and Bertuzzi tangle each other up this series if it keeps Marchand preoccupied and away from Matthews and Marner. Bertuzzi just has to recognize Marchand will goad him, dive, and never fight him, so it needs to just stay what it is without crossing the line.

I recognize this battle hasn’t gone Toronto’s way yet. I saw in Game 1 how the Leafs fixated on Marchand too much. But as the series settles in, they can’t make him more important than he is.

Marchand is competitive, a super smart hockey player, and he can burn you, as he did in Game 3. But you don’t have to spend too much mental energy “shutting him down.” Let him get knotted up with Bertuzzi and cancel one another out, and your stars should have clear heads to play hockey.

Samsonov starts with a short leash

The Leafs goalie simply hasn’t been bad enough to pull just yet. He made some great saves in the first period of Game 3, and has been solid enough if the team could just score.

But if Samsonov gives up another like he did to Trent Frederic, it should be time for Joseph Woll to try his hand at shutting the door.

The Leafs need Willy

You already knew this.

But the Leafs’ whole Kyle Dubas-led plan was for the team to be carried by their stars, and losing one of them just devastates their ability to win.

The Bruins have question marks down their lineup, on their third pair and bottom-six, but throwing the likes of Robertson and Pontus Holmberg to expose those weaknesses is totally ineffective. It kills a huge Toronto advantage.

Who knows how Nylander will look if he does get back in, but there’s no doubt that one of the flaws of a top-heavy plan is that a single injury decimates it, and that’s where the Leafs find themselves today.

Get Willy back, and they should be able to create far more, and win more minutes further down the lineup.

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