How the Ducks May Use the Oilers First-Round Pick Acquired in the Henrique, Carrick Deal

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Two days before the March 9 NHL trade deadline, the Anaheim Ducks traded Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick to the Edmonton Oilers. The Ducks retained 50% of each of their contracts for the remainder of the 2023-24 season. Coming back Anaheim’s way in the deal was the Oilers’ 2024 first-round pick and a 2025 conditional fifth-round pick.

Trade: Ducks send Adam Henrique, Sam Carrick to Oilers for Draft Picks

The Oilers looked to bolster their depth scoring with the addition of Adam Henrique and their fourth-line tenacity with Sam Carrick ahead of what they hope will be a deep playoff run that will lead them to a Stanley Cup. It needn’t be stated, but they have two of the NHL’s premier players in the prime of their careers, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Draisaitl’s current contract expires after the 2024-25 season and McDavid’s after the 2025-26 season. Their window to win is as open as it’s ever going to get and failure to do so could lead to one of (or both of) their superstars searching for greener pastures.

As is the case every season, the draft order for playoff teams is determined by how early a team is eliminated. The earlier the exit, the higher that team’s first-round pick will be. Teams eliminated in the first round of playoffs will select between 17-24 overall, teams eliminated in the second round will select between 25-28 overall, etc.

Because of how the rules are laid out, it would be understandable for supporters of the Anaheim Ducks to root for an early playoff exit from the Edmonton Oilers. However, if past drafts from General Manager Pat Verbeek, Director of Amateur Scouting Martin Madden, and the rest of the Anaheim Ducks scouting staff are any indication of their intentions at the 2024 NHL draft, where the Oilers’ pick falls may not impact the Ducks strategy greatly.

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When it comes to picks in the late first-round and early second-round, the Ducks identify the players they covet and don’t stray from their blueprint no matter how the chips fall in front of them.

In the past five drafts (2019-2023), the Ducks have made seven selections between picks 20 and 40. Those picks were Braden Tracey (29th overall, 2019), Jackson LaCombe (39th overall, 2019), Jacob Perreault (27th overall, 2020), Sam Colangelo (36th overall, 2020), Olen Zellweger (34th overall, 2021), Nathan Gaucher (22nd overall, 2022), and Nico Myatovic (33rd overall, 2023). All of those picks were taken ahead of public consensus based on public expert draft rankings (The Hockey News, TSN, Sportsnet, Elite Prospects, etc.)

Those decisions have been hits, misses, and some are yet to be determined. The Ducks have left some talented players on the board, but the decisiveness and confidence the scouting staff has shown in their picks in that range is to be commended.

The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. If the Ducks do elect to make a selection with the first-round pick acquired from the Edmonton Oilers, there’s a high likelihood that the player will be available regardless of where in the round that pick lies.

Pat Verbeek stated at the team’s annual post-trade deadline “Ducks Migration” event that the goal for the 2024-25 season is for the Ducks to be in a playoff race down the stretch of the season. He also stated the desire to add a right-shot winger to the team’s top-six forward group. The Oilers’ 2024 first-round pick could be a valuable trade chip to use in a deal to acquire that player. If that is the route the Ducks choose to take with that pick, it will likely hold more value the closer it lands to 17 overall.

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