How Nostradamus of US Presidential Polls always gets it right
How Nostradamus of US Presidential Polls always gets it right
Allan Lichtman is known as the ‘Nostradamus of US presidential elections’ for accurately predicting nine of the past 10 elections. Now, he is preparing for his 11th presidential election prediction, which he will announce in early August.
Nostradamus was a noted 16th Century French astrologer who is claimed to have predicted several important world events that were to happen centuries after his death.
As for Lichtman, he has been making US poll predictions for the last 40 years. The US presidential election takes place once every four years.Â
As a history professor at American University for fifty years, Lichtman developed the renowned “13 keys to the White House” method, which he uses to predict election results. This method consists of thirteen true/false questions, and if six or more keys go against the incumbent party, Lichtman predicts their defeat. If fewer than six went against it, it would win.
Here are the 13 keys to the White House as summarised by the American University website.
Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.Â
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.Â
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.Â
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.Â
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.Â
Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.Â
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.Â
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.Â
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.Â
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.Â
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.Â
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.Â
TRUMP VS BIDEN IN 2024 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Republican candidate Donald Trump is ahead of US President Joe Biden in popularity, a CNN poll has revealed. The survey says a majority of all Americans view Trump’s presidency as a success, while they view Biden’s term as a failure.
According to the CNN poll, Trump’s support among registered voters remains the same at 49% in a head-to-head matchup against Biden.
Additionally, 55% of all Americans view Trump’s presidency as a success, compared to 44% who see it as a failure.
In contrast, 61% believe Biden’s presidency so far has been a failure, with only 39% considering it a success.
However, Lichtman observes that Biden holds the incumbency key and, following his victory over insignificant challengers in the Democratic primary, also secures the contest key.
“That’s two keys off the top. That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,” Lichtman was quoted as saying by Guardian.
Lichtman remains cautious, acknowledging the pressure and scrutiny surrounding his predictions. “It’s nerve-racking because there are a lot of people who’d love to see me fail,” he admits.
Interestingly, Lichtman gives no weight to running mate picks.
Yet, Lichtman stands by his method, emphasising that imperfection is inherent in the human world.Â
As he prepares to make his pronouncement on the 2024 presidential election in early August, millions of people await his verdict on what could be another historic election night, reported the Guardian.