Harga Emas Tergelincir Jelang Putusan Suku Bunga The Fed

harga emas tergelincir jelang putusan suku bunga the fed

Harga Emas Tergelincir Jelang Putusan Suku Bunga The Fed

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA — Harga emas berjangka berdasarkan kontrak teraktif Juni 2024 turun US$2,10, atau -0,09%, menetap di US$2347,50 pada perdagangan Selasa (30/4/2024). Penurunan ini akan lebih signifikan jika bukan karena melemahnya dolar AS.

Dolar AS saat ini melemah -0.26%, membawa indeks dolar ke 105.525. Dolar yang netral akan mengakibatkan emas kehilangan lebih banyak kekuatan, karena nilai emas berpasangan langsung dengan dolar.

Federal Reserve akan memulai pertemuan Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal (FOMC) selama dua hari pada hari Selasa (30/4), dan berakhir pada hari Rabu (1/5). Bank Sentral AS (Federal Reserve) diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (fed fund rate) tidak berubah.

Menurut alat FedWatch CME, terdapat kemungkinan 94,6% bahwa The Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga saat ini dan 5,4% kemungkinan bahwa mereka akan menurunkan suku bunga sebesar ¼%, yang akan menjadikan suku bunga acuan mereka antara 5% dan 5,25%. Pada akhir pertemuan FOMC minggu ini, Federal Reserve akan merilis pernyataan, dan Ketua Jerome Powell akan mengadakan konferensi pers.

Menurut UBJ, “Prakiraan dari pasar berjangka menunjukkan tingkat kepastian yang tinggi bahwa suku bunga akan tetap tidak berubah, dengan peluang penurunan suku bunga yang sangat kecil. Sejak Juli 2023, FOMC telah mempertahankan target suku bunga dana federal yang stabil, mempertahankan itu dalam kisaran 5,25% hingga 5,50%. Sikap stabil ini mencerminkan pendekatan hati-hati komite, terutama mengingat tekanan inflasi baru-baru ini.”

Namun, pelaku pasar akan sangat fokus pada rencana The Fed terkait pengelolaan neraca keuangannya, yang diperkirakan akan mendapat perhatian signifikan.

Penulis Rahul Kumar mencatat, “The Fed mempunyai pengaruh terhadap kebijakan moneter tidak hanya melalui suku bunga tetapi juga melalui tindakannya di pasar repo dan penyesuaian terhadap ukuran neracanya. Pelonggaran kuantitatif (QE), sebuah strategi yang melibatkan pembelian sejumlah besar aset sejumlah besar aset, menyuntikkan likuiditas ke dalam sistem keuangan, sementara pengetatan kuantitatif (QT) melibatkan pengurangan neraca dengan membiarkan aset jatuh tempo tanpa investasi ulang.

Sejak Juni 2022, The Fed telah memulai jalur QT dan secara bertahap mengurangi ukuran neracanya. Indikasi Powell baru-baru ini mengenai perlambatan limpasan neraca menandakan potensi perubahan dalam strategi, dengan ekspektasi pengumuman rencana formal pada bulan Mei dan selanjutnya penurunan laju pengurangan neraca bulanan.”

Federal Reserve terus mengurangi aset dari neracanya, yang mencapai puncaknya pada tahun 2022, dan keputusan mengenai QT terpisah dari keputusan Fed mengenai suku bunga.

Tampaknya sebagian besar investor akan menunggu panduan The Fed sebelum mengambil keputusan besar mengenai portofolio investasi mereka, termasuk alokasi pada emas dan ekuitas AS.

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