Goa Lok Sabha elections: Who will win and why?
Goa Lok Sabha elections: Who will win and why?
Two seats, 11.8 lakh voters and 16 candidates in fray. That is the equation the tiniest state will see. Though it started as a triangular contest, it has boiled down to a battle between BJP and Congress. TOI does SWOT analysis of key candidates to see their winnability quotient
SHRIPAD NAIK
Strength
Naik’s grassroots approach to politics, his clean image, and accessibility to voters, have endeared him to his voters for five consecutive terms. A prominent Bhandari samaj leader, he played a stellar role in the growth of BJP in Goa. Naik is revered and admired by the party’s rank and file.
Weakness
Naik has been criticised for failing to capitalise on his positions in the Centre for Goa’s cause he rose to become a minister at the centre for three terms. He has also been criticised for not raising Goa’s issues in Parliament.
Opportunity
The robust legislative strength of BJP in North Goa, backed by an equally strong party election machine, could work to Naik’s advantage. If Nalk wins this time, he will break the record jointly held by him and Eduardo Faleiro of Congress for representing a Lok Sabha seat in Goa for five consecutive terms.
Threat
Emotive issues like the Mhadei diversion, mining and jobs, which the Opposition has latched up to, coupled with the anti- incumbency factor, are some of the landmines Naik could encounter in his march towards victory.
RAMAKANT KHALAP
Strength
As a former deputy CM and a Union law minister. Khalap is a recognisable face. though he has been out of active politics for 25 years. He Is well connected in Pernem, Mandrem, Poriem and Mapusa.
Weakness
Unable to connect with younger voters. Congress organisation itself is weakened and barely a shadow of the well- oiled poll machinery that BJP has. Infighting within Congress also adds to the discomfort.
Opportunities
Can take advantage of the anti- incumbency factor. Many find Shripad Naik a non- performer. They want a credible option.
Threats
The collapse of The Mapusa Urban Cooperative Bank. Many depositors are still sore as they have not got their entire money back. RGP will also cut into Khalap’s vote share.
MANOJ PARAB
Strength
Understands the pulse and has ability to connect with disillusioned and unemployed youth. Has age on his side.
Weakness
Prone to outbursts and tirades against migrants. His policies are seen as non- conformist and regressive.
Opportunities
After grabbing a 10% vote share in the assembly elections, the Lok Sabha campaign is a chance to reconnect with the voter and prepare for the next assembly election, so that they can’t be ignored.
Threats
Perception of being a vote splitter and working for BJP. Aggressive image can deter neutral voters and those in urban pockets.
PALLAVI DEMPO
Strength
Hailing from one of the oldest business families of Goa, BJP hopes the goodwill generated by the Dempo family and its patronage to football would fetch Pallavi the votes to wrest the South Goa seat.
Weakness
Being a greenhorn in politics, Dempo hasn’t been able to hold forth on issues concerning people and has let the chief minister, the party president, and others, do most of the talking.
Opportunity
The numbers are stacked in BJP’s favour, with 15 of the 20 MLAs from South on its side. Also, BJP has MGP on its side this time. If Pallavi wins, BJP can create history by sending their first woman candidate from Goa to Lok Sabha.
Threat
The underlying current of resentment and distrust against the party, the circular from the archbishop and its inability to break into the Christiandominated Salcete taluka could work against her.
VIRIATO FERNANDES
Strength
Navy veteran Viriato is held in high esteem by a significant section of people. His activist stint before turning politician has led Congress to project him as Goa’s ‘saviour’.
Weakness
With Congress having been reduced to just two MLAs in South Goa, it’s been a Herculean task for the party to measure up to BJP in terms of organizational network, as well as financial and other resources.
Opportunity
Viriato has activist groups on his side. Besides, Congress banks on Salcete, which traditionally stayed loyal to Congress, to retain the South Goa seat.
Threat
The counteroffensive launched by BJP against Viriato for his “antiConstitution” remarks punctured the Congress poll campaign to some extent. The delay in announcing his candidature left the party with insufficient time to canvas.
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