For the 2024 Atlanta Braves’ offense it is deja vu all over again

06/05/2024

After being swept in Los Angeles by the Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves hold a 20-12 record with one-fifth of the 2024 season in the books.

Ignoring the NL East division standings for a moment, there are a lot of parallels between where the 2023 Braves team stood after a Cinco de Mayo loss last year and where the 2024 Braves are after a Cinco de Mayo loss this year.

Last year, Max Fried took the loss against after the Braves lost to the Baltimore Orioles 9-4 in a game in which he allowed seven runs (five earned) over six innings and Jesse Chavez tossed a clean final inning.

Fast-forward one year and Fried again took the loss, this time after allowing four earned runs in seven innings and Chavez ended the game with two-thirds of an inning pitched without a blemish.

Last year’s Cinco de Mayo Braves starting line-up saw Braden Shewmake put-up a 0-for while making is lone start for Atlanta at shortstop, a forgotten footnote in a record-breaking offensive season.

After that loss, here’s where the rest of the line-up stood coming into May 6, 2023:

Ronald Acuna, Jr. (RF) .352/.444/.578
Matt Olson (1B) .244/.364/.520
Austin Riley (3B) .256/.345/.432
Sean Murphy (C) .296/.439/.653
Eddie Rosario (LF) .247/.293/.419
Ozzie Albies (2B) .295/.333/.574
Marcell Ozuna (DH) .147/.256/.360
Sam Hilliard (CF) .266/.329/.484
Braden Shewmake (SS) .000/.000/.000

Jumping into present-day, here’s yesterday’s starting line-up after they dropped the final game of the Dodgers series:

Ronald Acuna, Jr. (RF) .268/.376/.362
Ozzie Albies (2B) .297/.355/.446
Austin Riley (3B) .237/.310/.397
Matt Olson (1B) .197/.317/.359
Marcell Ozuna (DH) .306/.382/.603
Orlando Arcia (SS) .271/.294/.407
Michell Harris II (CF) .271/.309/.403
Adam Duvall (LF) .220/.298/.380
Chadwick Tromp (C) .219/.235/.313

It is easy to forget that this time last year, Harris II was still injured as was Arcia. Ozuna was performing so poorly that most everyone thought word of his release could come at any moment. Acuna, Jr. and Murphy were leading the team offensively.

This year, Albies is putting up almost identical numbers to last year (slugging notwithstanding), but it has been Ozuna that has been pacing the team while Olson and Riley are both off to slower starts than last year when both of them got off to slow starts. The team has been without Murphy for almost the entire season and spent almost two weeks without Albies in the line-up.

The team’s slugging is down across the board, but the 2023 Braves were 22-11 coming out of May 5 – only 1.5 games better than the 2024 Braves team.

There is reason for optimism for the team and specifically for its potentially potent offensive.

Take a peek at Baseball Savant, and you’ll see that despite the team’s struggles this season, the Braves still lead all of baseball in Hard Hit % (45.1) and Exit Velocity (90.6). They are third behind the Dodgers and Orioles in XWOBACON and XWOBA while sitting fourth behind those same two teams and the Kansas City Royals in XSLG. The Braves are also fourth in Barrel %, just behind the Athletics and fifth in XBA.

The team has struggled is getting the ball in the air, with a Launch Angle of 12.8 – in the bottom half of MLB and slightly below the 12.9 average. By comparison, the Dodgers and Orioles are second and third in Launch Angle.

Last year, the Braves ended the season first in Hard Hit % (46.0), Exit Velocity (91.0), Barrel %, XWOBACON, XWOBA, XSLG and XBA. Where did they end the year in launch angle? Worse than this season, in the bottom one-third of the league with a 12.1 angle below a league average of 12.8.

Much has been made of the Braves hitting the ball on the ground more this season, but relative to all of the 2023 season when Atlanta hit grounders at a 43.4% clip the Braves are only performing slightly worse with a GB% of 44.3. That ranks the team ninth in baseball this season. They were eighth in that category last year.

One of the more telling stats that there might be something quirky going around the game this season is when comparing HR/FB ratio.

In 2023, the Braves were the best in baseball – by a significant margin – with a 19.1% HR/FB as the Twins finished second at 15.4%. This year has been a drastically different story, as the Braves are currently 13th in the game at 10.8%. The Orioles lead MLB with a 14.4% – which would have ranked seventh last year.

Last year, as a whole, MLB slugged .414 and were paced by the Braves with a .501 slugging percentage. This year, MLB is slugging .383 and the Braves are third with a .416. Power outcome is down 7.5-percent across the game from last season, but for the Braves, it is starker with a 17-percent decrease.

Your eyes haven’t been deceiving you as you’ve watched Braves’ sluggers drill a ball that seems to be a no-doubt-about-it home run only to see if die on the warning track.

Back to the division. Unlike last year, the Phillies didn’t get off to a slow start – they were 15-18 after their May 5, 2023, loss to Boston – so the framing of the 2024 NL East looks radically different. As of today, Atlanta is trailing Philadelphia by 2.5 games this season rather than leading them by 7.0 games like they did one year ago.

There is still 80-percent of the Braves’ 2024 left to play. Hopefully, those positive offensive indicators – along with others like the Braves still ranking second in BABIP – mean that the team is only a few tweaks and a couple lucky breaks away from trending in the right direction again.

Everyone is happier when the outcome matches or exceeds the process. Unfortunately for Atlanta’s offense, that hasn’t been the case so far in the 2024 campaign. The Braves just need to keep adhering to the process as there are a lot of underlying reasons for optimism.