JPMorgan First-Quarter Net Interest Income Misses Estimates

Parsing through some of the information, what stands out as part of what’s driving this overall negative narrative, There are a couple things going on. One is the fact that JP Morgan didn’t raise the bar. Remember coming into this earnings cycle, JP Morgan was trading at 1.9 times book value, nearly so, way more expensive than any other bank and a 14% rise in its shares until this point. Now they’re saying that they are not raising necessarily their net interest income guidance, but they did according to the presentations quarter over quarter raise their guidance. Expenses for the full year. So there will be questions on how to think about that. Another thing that’s important is why net interest income may not rise this year even if we see lower rate cuts. JP Morgan is the king of the room when it comes to the credit card businesses, right? And so we know that credit card balances in the United States have risen well past a trillion dollars. And now there are questions starting to rise about how much you can Max out the American consumer right. You have to wonder whether there is juice left to squeeze in these consumer lending businesses that have just minted money for these big banks. Time from UBS comes to mind. Never underestimate the hedonism of the US consumer. I’ll just, I’ll just put that to you. But Jamie down on the M Live blog, he’s talking about this. There’s a number of large persistent inflationary pressures. So even talking to the macro, if you step back and talk for the macro picture again, they’re seeing inflationary pressures. That’s going to hit their expense line and that’s important as well. It certainly is. And remember for JP Morgan, they can navigate it. They have the best returns on equity of anybody on Wall Street by a margin, by a large margin. But if you think about that, read through for the rest of the banking system how painful that could be and you also think about, you know, how much can some of these other businesses jump back to support. That increase cost 1. Lucky thing is Wall Street is jumping back. You have finally investment banking coming back to support support those trading businesses. But again a question remains. Man is how hard you have to work. Not only how much do you have to spend when it comes to that extra banker fee that extra trader. Exactly. But also this idea, when you look at the way that they’re using their own balance sheet, JP Morgan’s value at risk has risen just to tick higher than it’s been throughout the last year, which means that they’re having to work a little harder to put that risk appetite back in the markets. You see that most, they go line by line, back and forth, exchange and credit products as you would expect where the volatility is.