Florida House Prices Are Falling in One City

02/05/2024

The skyline of the city, built along several inland waterways, is viewed from Davis Island on February 14, 2011 in Tampa, Florida. Tampa was the only metropolitan areas of the 20 analyzed by S&P to report a price decline between January and February 2024.

The city of Tampa, Florida, is the only one to have reported a drop in home prices between January and February out of 20 metropolitan areas analyzed by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, according to the latest data.

For the first time since October 2023, the National Home Price NSA Index reported a 0.6 percent month-over-month increase in February, while a composite of 20 major metropolitan areas analyzed by S&P posted a 0.9 percent climb in home prices before seasonal adjustments.

Nearly all of the 20 cities reported an increase in prices ranging from 0.1 percent in Miami to 2.3 percent in Seattle during the same period. Only in Tampa, prices declined by a modest 0.3 percent in February, as per non-seasonally adjusted data. While seasonally adjusted data are slightly different for several cities, Tampa still reported a drop of 0.3 percent between January and February after the adjustment.

In Cleveland, Ohio, prices remained unchanged, as per non-seasonally adjusted data.

“Following last year’s decline, U.S. home prices are at or near all-time highs,” said Brian D. Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, explaining the month-over-month increase in most metropolitan areas.

“Since the previous peak in prices in 2022, this marks the second time home prices have pushed higher in the face of economic uncertainty. Enthusiasm for potential Fed cuts and lower mortgage rates appears to have supported buyer behavior, driving the 10- and 20- City Composites to new highs.” Newsweek contacted S&P for comment by email early on Wednesday.

There are reasons why Tampa is an exception.

Florida is one of the states that, together with Texas, have built the most homes in recent years. The rise in inventory is triggering a modest decline in home prices, though the historic shortage of supply, which remains relevant despite the recent addition of newly built homes on the state market, has kept prices relatively high.

The data from S&P also suggests that home prices in Tampa, a hot market during the booming years of the pandemic, are finally coming down to earth.

According to Redfin, the median sale price of a house in Tampa was $422,500 in March 2024, up 4.3 percent from a year earlier. While still high, this year-over-year increase pales in comparison to that experienced by the city’s market in August 2023, when it reached the median sale price of $455,000—up 19.7 percent compared to a year earlier. In June 2022, the median sale price of a home in the city was lower—$432,500—but year-over-year increase was of 26.5 percent.

“Florida has been the hottest market in the post-COVID home price boom. Tampa, ranked second behind Miami, has seen home price appreciation of 70 percent from January 2000 to November of 2023,” Brian Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, told Newsweek.

“The last three months of consecutive declines reflect a slight drop with the index 0.8 percent off its all-time high, falling back to the levels seen last summer. As other cities play catchup to the Sunshine State, Tampa isn’t stagnating on an annual basis. 4.3 percent annual gains are slightly below average annual appreciation of 4.9 percent, with the city index dating back to January 1988.”

These are the price changes between January and February using non-seasonally adjusted data for all 20 metropolitan area monitored by S&P:

Atlanta 0.4 percent
Boston 1.0 percent
Charlotte 0.2 percent
Chicago 1.1 percent
Cleveland 0.0 percent
Dallas 0.6 percent
Denver 0.9 percent
Detroit 0.5 percent
Las Vegas 0.6 percent
Los Angeles 1.1 percent
Miami 0.1 percent
Minneapolis 0.7 percent
New York 0.8 percent
Phoenix 0.5 percent
Portland 1.2 percent
San Diego 1.7 percent
San Francisco 1.7 percent
Seattle 2.3 percent
Tampa -0.3 percent
Washington 1.1 percent

Update 5/01/24, 10:45 a.m. ET: This article was updated to include a comment from Brian Luke.

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