Fed’s Waller Says No Rush to Cut Interest Rates

Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., US, on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. Federal Reserve officials this week gave their clearest signal yet that they’re willing to tolerate a recession as the necessary trade-off for regaining control of inflation.

(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said there is no rush to lower interest rates, emphasizing that recent economic data warrants delaying or reducing the number of cuts seen this year.

Waller called recent inflation figures “disappointing” and said he wants to see “at least a couple months of better inflation data” before cutting. He pointed to a strong economy and robust hiring as further reasons the Fed has room to wait to gain confidence that inflation is on a sustained path toward the 2% target.

“In my view, it is appropriate to reduce the overall number of rate cuts or push them further into the future in response to the recent data,” Waller said in prepared remarks Wednesday before the Economic Club of New York titled “There’s Still No Rush.”

Treasuries slipped in Asia trading as markets digested Waller’s comments, with the policy-sensitive two-year yield climbing about four basis points. The short-dated bond benchmark has risen more than 35 basis points this year as traders pushed back expectations for Fed cuts.

“I see economic output and the labor market showing continued strength, while progress in reducing inflation has slowed,” Waller said.  “Because of these signs, I see no rush in taking the step of beginning to ease monetary policy.”

Fed officials, who have kept interest rates at a more than two-decade high since July, are debating when and to what extent to lower borrowing costs this year. Chair Jerome Powell has called the timing of such a decision “highly consequential” and emphasized the need for patience.

Waller used the term “no rush” four times in his remarks, including in the title. Investors are betting the first cut will come in June.

The Fed governor said recent economic data “tells me that it is prudent to hold this rate at its current restrictive stance perhaps for longer than previously thought to help keep inflation on a sustainable trajectory toward 2%.”

Policymakers penciled in three rate reductions for 2024 in their in new forecasts released this month, according to the median estimate. However, officials are split: Nine of 19 officials project two cuts or fewer. Raphael Bostic, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, said he anticipates lowering interest rates just once this year.

Resilient Economy

The economy continues to surprise officials with resilient growth, and Fed policymakers significantly boosted their estimate for gross domestic product this year to 2.1%, up from 1.4% in December. Hiring has remained strong, and key price gauges have exceeded economists’ expectations in recent months.

Waller said it will be appropriate to reduce the policy rate some time this year as the economy makes further progress on inflation.

“I continue to believe that further progress will make it appropriate for the FOMC to begin reducing the target range for the federal funds rate this year,” he said. “But until that progress materializes, I am not ready to take that step.”

“Fortunately, the strength of the US economy and resilience of the labor market mean the risk of waiting a little longer to ease policy is small and significantly lower than acting too soon.”

Waller also made clear in the moderated discussion following his prepared remarks that there is very little chance the Fed would raise interest rates further.

“We never say never in central banking, but something would really have to dramatically change on the inflation front to think about that,” he said. “And we are not seeing that.”

The government will release data on the Fed’s preferred inflation metric Friday.

–With assistance from Cormac Mullen.

(Updates with market reaction in fourth paragraph.)

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