Fantasy Baseball Prospects Report: Coby Mayo could leapfrog Jackson Holliday; Paul Skenes in holding pattern

08/05/2024

It’s probably time to move on from Max Meyer.

I’m not saying he isn’t one of the top 10 prospects to stash, but this article only concerns itself with the top five. And even after a recent flurry of call-ups, I don’t see how he fits anymore.

The biggest reason is that he’s no longer next in line for the Marlins. Roddery Munoz is, having recently been sent down to make way for Braxton Garrett. Granted, Muñoz is no great shakes, but there’s a reason why the Marlins turned to him before Meyer: They’re not actually looking to win right now. They just traded their most celebrated hitter, Luis Arraez, to the Padres for a handful of quasi-prosects. So even though Meyer has already proven to be one of their five best starting pitchers, they’ve given every indication that they intend to keep him down for developmental reasons.

The biggest of those reasons is innings preservation. The Marlins said when they sent Meyer down that he would throw three innings once a week, and they’ve more or less stuck with that plan. It’s not even clear he’d be able to handle a starter’s workload if he were to get the call now, and the truth is he hasn’t been pitching well anyway.

But that’s strange isn’t it? After all, he put together a 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his three major-league starts. Yeah, but he relied on his slider 49 percent of the time in them. The Marlins are having him emphasize his changeup at Triple-A because, again, they’re prioritizing development over performance.

Nothing that they’re doing with Meyer right now would suggest a return to the majors is even in the discussion, which is why I’m looking elsewhere for my …

FIVE ON THE VERGE

(These are the prospects most worth stashing in redraft leagues.)

Paul Skenes, SP, Pirates

2023 minors: 6 2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 10 K

2024 minors: 0.99 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 27 1/3 IP, 8 BB, 45 K

Stop the presses. Skenes actually took some damage in his latest start Sunday, tripling his season earned run total by allowing … two. One came on a home run, the first he’s served up in his seven starts at Triple-A Indianapolis. Seeing as it was his first time starting on four days’ rest, which would be a regular turn in a five-man rotation, you could say it was an audition of sorts. But it apparently wasn’t good enough, because his next start is also scheduled for Triple-A.

I said last week that he would get one, maybe two, more starts at Triple-A before making his major-league debut. That’s my prediction, but what’s manager Derek Shelton’s?

“We haven’t figured it out yet,” Shelton told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on Monday. “The big leagues are hard. People don’t just come here, automatically click and go. We have to make sure that we’re going to put him in the best position possible before we make the decision to put him in the big leagues.”

So when will Skenes be up? I’m left to believe it’s when he proves he can take a regular turn without having his performance suffer. He may well prove it in his next start, or he may not. But I suspect he will before the end of May, at least.

Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays

2023 minors: .324 BA (460 AB), 31 HR, .976 OPS, 42 BB, 100 K

2024 minors: .315 BA (73 AB), 6 HR, 1.005 OPS, 7 BB, 16 K

Not much has changed on the Caminero front in the past week. He’s cooled off a bit, though his numbers are still basically unimpeachable. Jonathan Aranda has yet to return from a fractured finger, but he had a four-hit game on his rehab assignment Tuesday and still seems poised to step into the DH spot for the Rays. There’s no opening otherwise, not unless the Rays are ready to move on from Yandy Diaz at first base (spoiler alert: they’re not). Isaac Paredes is certainly holding things down at third base. It may take an injury for Caminero to get his chance, but it may not. You should never underestimate the Rays’ creativity, and — case in point — Aranda has been getting starts at second base on his rehab assignment.

Jackson Holliday, 2B, Orioles

2024 minors: .293 BA (75 AB), 2 HR, 1 SB, .953 OPS, 23 BB, 17 K

2024 majors: 2 for 31, 0 HR, 0 SB, 2 BB, 18 K

Since returning from his ill-fated major-league stint, Holliday has gone 8 for 33 (.242) with four doubles at Triple-A Norfolk — a listless performance, perhaps, but he has at least walked (11) more than he’s struck out (nine) during that time. If the Orioles were looking for an excuse to keep him at Triple-A, they certainly have it, but they’re more likely looking for an excuse to bring him back. They could genuinely use the help with Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias failing to provide much in the lineup spot that briefly belonged to Holliday. It may take the 20-year-old a couple weeks to shake off the disappointment of his first major-league trial, but he made such easy work of the Orioles’ entire minor-league system that it’s only a matter of time before he’s forcing the issue again. And while we’ll certainly approach him with more skepticism the next time around, the upside hasn’t changed.

Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles

2023 minors: .290 BA (504 AB), 29 HR, .973 OPS, 93 BB, 148 K

2024 minors: .301 BA (143 AB), 11 HR, .980 OPS, 13 BB, 47 K

Of course, if the Orioles are looking to upgrade from their Jorge Mateo-Ramon Urias tandem, Holliday isn’t their only option. The need isn’t at second base, but either second or third base, with Jordan Westburg able to shift around as needed. And it sure seems like third baseman Coby Mayo is ready. I say “seems like” because it’s still unfortunately the case that he has a 30 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A Norfolk. That’s up a few percentage points from this time a week ago thanks to a little cold spell during which Mayo has gone 1 for 17 with eight strikeouts.

Would the Orioles add him to the 40-man roster before bringing back Holliday? Not if they’re convinced major-league pitchers will eat him alive. But Mayo maintained a much more respectable 23 percent strikeout rate during his time at Triple-A last year, so we already know he’s capable of better. Of course, as hard as he hits the ball (93.7 mph average exit velocity and 114.9 mph max exit velocity), he could probably still succeed with a 30 percent strikeout rate.

Orelvis Martinez, 2B, Blue Jays

2023 minors: .243 BA (448 AB), 28 HR, .836 OPS, 67 BB, 126 K

2024 minors: .299 BA (117 AB), 9 HR, .977 OPS, 12 BB, 29 K

The two positions that Martinez has played at Triple-A Buffalo this year are second and third base. The two position where the Blue Jays need the most help are — that’s right — second and third base. At one they’re primarily starting Cavan Biggio, who’s batting in the low .200s with an OPS in the .600s for like a fourth consecutive season. At the other, they’re primarily starting Isiah Kiner-Falefa, whose reputation speaks for itself. All Martinez has done this year is hit some of the most impressive home runs in all the minor leagues, with the latest being this one Tuesday:

And that one is nothing by his standards. He’s hit home runs of 469, 455 and 434 feet this year, just to list off the ones I found on Twitter. You might presume his prodigious power is undermined by an excessive amount of swing-and-miss, but actually, Martinez has struck out at only a 23 percent rate so far. If the Blue Jays are going to salvage their season, then Martinez figures to play a part in it.

FIVE ON THE PERIPHERY

(Here are some other prospects doing something of note.)

Harry Ford, C, Mariners

2023 minors: .257 BA (444 AB), 15 HR, 24 SB, .840 OPS, 103 BB, 109 K

2024 minors: .250 BA (92 AB), 4 HR, 7 SB, .877 OPS, 22 BB, 24 K

Ford is an on-base freak who runs remarkably well for a catcher, but if there’s one part of his game that’s cause for skepticism, it’s the power. He lacks the sort of exit velocity readings that would make it a foregone conclusion, so we really want to see him hit home runs in the minors. It’s going to be harder for him at Double-A Arkansas, which is one of the worst venues for home runs in all the minor leagues, but Ford has enjoyed a power surge of late, batting .391 (18 for 46) with four homers and five steals in his past 13 games. He’s one of the few catcher prospects deserving of a premium in Dynasty leagues right now, in part for the novelty of his skill set.

Lazaro Montes, OF, Mariners

2023 minors: .303 BA (241 AB), 13 HR, 1.000 OPS, 54 BB, 76 K

2024 minors: .311 BA (103 AB), 6 HR, .968 OPS, 17 BB, 18 K

I’ve long made the Yordan Alvarez comparison for Montes. They’re both from Cuba, both have a similar physique, and both worked with the same hitting instructor in the Dominican Republic. Most of all, they both straight-up murder the ball, producing some of the highest exit velocities for their level. To this point, most scouting reports have dinged Montes for his hit tool, which is not something you would have heard for Alvarez, but the further he climbs up the ladder, the more that critique seems like bunk. Here he is sporting a near 1-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Low-A Modesto, his strikeout rate sitting at 14.4 percent, and meanwhile, he’s homered five times in his past nine games. Montes was on few top-100 lists prior to this season, but here’s betting he’ll be on all of them next season.

Yilber Diaz, SP, Diamondbacks

2023 minors: 4.82 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 102 2/3 IP, 58 BB, 140 K

2024 minors: 3.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 25 IP, 12 BB, 42 K

Diaz’s full stat line may not strike you as anything special, but it’s the 15.1 K/9 rate that’s deserving of your attention. That’s particularly true because he’s doing it at Double-A. Most of the great K/9 rates in the minors right now are at A-ball and are usually instances of former college pitchers schooling less experienced hitters. Diaz has come about his rate legitimately, with a near triple-digit fastball that registers whiffs up in the zone and a power curveball that lures hitters to chase. His most impressive start came last time out, when he allowed no runs on two hits with 11 strikeouts and no walks in seven innings. It offers some insight into how good he could be if he simply hits his spots. His walk rate may be on the high side, but he has thrown 66 percent of his pitches for strikes overall, which isn’t bad.

Quinn Mathews, SP, Cardinals

2024 minors: 0.74 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 24 1/3 IP, 10 BB, 44 K

Mathews was billed as a control-and-command lefty when he Cardinals nabbed him in the fourth round last year, but they’ve altered his mechanics to give him a high-impact fastball that’s several miles per hour harder than the one he threw in college and comes in at the ideal angle for generating whiffs up in the zone. Between that and a pair of breaking balls, Low-A hitters are simply no match for Mathews right now. He’s too advanced for the level, clearly, but the changes to his arsenal should translate to higher levels as well.

Jay Allen, OF, Reds

2023 minors: .163 BA (104 AB), 2 HR, 16 SB, .570 OPS, 16 BB, 44 K

2024 minors: .387 BA (62 AB), 6 HR, 7 SB, 1.194 OPS, 11 BB, 14 K

Allen was a trendy pickup in Dynasty league after the Reds drafted him 30th overall in 2021, but his past two years were an unmitigated disaster. It’s possible the Reds just advanced him too quickly, though. Now in his third chance at High-A Dayton, he’s finally living up to the power/speed profile that once generated so much interest. At 21, he’s young enough to resuscitate his value and will certainly attract attention if he’s able to sustain anywhere close to this level of production following a move up to Double-A.