Fantasy Baseball: Paul Skenes is coming up, but is it wiser to sell or hold?
Fantasy Baseball: Paul Skenes is coming up, but is it wiser to sell or hold?
The most highly anticipated pitcher prospect since Stephen Strasburg is on his way to the big leagues. The Pirates announced Wednesday that Paul Skenes will start Saturday’s game against the Cubs.
I’d say to pick him up, but he’s already rostered in 90 percent of CBS Sports leagues. By that metric, Skenes might be the most highly anticipated pitcher prospect ever.
The Pirates had previously said he’d get another turn at Triple-A but apparently had a change of heart. He’s made a mockery of that level so far by allowing three earned runs and striking out 45 in 27 1/3 innings.
While his slider is considered his best pitch, what stands out most on a pure statistical level is how consistently he pumps in his fastball at triple digits. He’s about to set a new standard as far as that goes, at least among starting pitchers. He’s already thrown 98 pitches 100 mph or harder at Triple-A, according to MLB.com, which is more than any major-leaguer this year. And remember, Skenes’ starts have all been on the shorter side, with the longest lasting 75 pitches.
Which brings me to my next point, the downside case. The timing of this promotion is curious in that Skenes is coming off his one start that was slightly less dominant (two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings), which itself wouldn’t matter except that it was his first time starting on four days’ rest. That’s customary in a five-man rotation, but you could tell he wasn’t accustomed to it. His stuff wasn’t up to its usual standards, and he went on to serve up his first home run on his second-slowest fastball of the season. The truth is that a 75-pitch max isn’t a thorough exploration of how well a pitcher’s stuff holds up. It’s one thing to dominate in four-inning bursts, but it’s another to do it in a true starting role.
My concerns for Skenes are twofold:
- Is he truly ready to handle a major-league workload?
- To what extent will he be allowed to try?
Obviously, the Pirates have coddled him to this point, limiting him to three innings in spring training and roughly three innings in each of his first four Triple-A starts. My presumption is that it was a delayed buildup, reflecting their preference to limit his innings at the start of the season rather than the end. But the fact he took a step back in his latest start, both in terms of buildup and performance, makes me wonder if the plan is so well thought out.
The stuff is overpowering enough that, inning for inning, I have few concerns about whether Skenes will be good on an inning-for-inning basis. But if he’s not able to go six innings consistently — or even the five required for a win — there’s only so much good he can do in Fantasy.
So where does that put Skenes in terms of the rankings? Well, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say he has top-10 potential already, and that potential needs to be factored in. But potential isn’t inevitability, of course, and so weighing it against my concerns over his workload and sustainability, I would put Skenes around … 25th. Honestly, that’s higher than I thought, particularly at a time when there seems to be a surplus of quality pitching. But I guess most of that quality pitching comes with question marks, as does Skenes, and if there are question marks either way, why not shoot for the best possible outcome?
So if you can capitalize on the hype of Skenes’ promotion by combining him with a lesser player for a true top-15 arm — say, Pablo Lopez or Kevin Gausman — go for it. But otherwise, you should just sit back and enjoy the ride.