English clubs in nervy wait as Germany closes on extra Champions League spot

Manchester City’s exit against Real Madrid counted in Uefa’s coefficient rankings as a draw, as penalty shootouts are not factored in. Photograph: Mike Egerton/PA

The Premier League’s hopes of securing an extra spot in next season’s expanded Champions League are hanging by a thread after the exits of Manchester City and Arsenal from this season’s competition on Wednesday night – with Germany now the strong favourites to pip it to the prize.

The picture could become more gloomy or even terminal for the English top flight by the close of play on Thursday night when the Europa League and Europa Conference League quarter-final second legs are concluded, with West Ham’s tie against Bayer Leverkusen in the former potentially pivotal.

The situation has ramped up the pressure in the battle between Aston Villa and Tottenham for a fourth-placed Premier League finish. Villa are fourth, three points ahead of Spurs, who have a game in hand.

England have four guaranteed spots in next season’s Champions League that will go to the top four finishers in the Premier League. But with two European leagues to be rewarded with extra places in the new-look 36-team Champions League for 2024-25 – the beneficiaries will be determined by clubs’ performances in all three European competitions this season – the hope had been that fifth spot in the Premier League could bring a bonus. It is now increasingly unlikely.

Italy are all but assured of one of the two extra places after the strong performances of their clubs in Europe this season, with the second coming down to a fight between England and Germany.

The pendulum has swung in Germany’s favour, particularly after Bayern Munich progressed into the Champions League semi-finals at the expense of Arsenal. Borussia Dortmund had gone through on Tuesday, getting past Atlético Madrid, while City came up short against Real Madrid, losing on penalties.

Clubs score two Uefa coefficient points for a win, one for a draw and nothing for a defeat. Penalties are not taken into account, meaning City scored one point for the “draw” after 120 minutes against Madrid. There are also bonus points for getting to certain stages of competitions, with clubs at this stage getting one per round that they reach. The points from a nation are divided by the number of teams they have competing in Europe to get their coefficient average.

After Wednesday’s ties, Germany have 123.5 points for a coefficient of 17.642 from their seven clubs while England have 135 points for 16.875 from their eight. Italy lead the table with a coefficient of 18.428.

West Ham would score points with a win or draw against Leverkusen in the second leg at the London Stadium but, 2-0 down from the first leg, their hopes of progress are slim. Ditto Liverpool, also in the Europa League, after their 3-0 home defeat against Atalanta in the first leg. They are in Bergamo for the return.

Villa could be left to carry the flag for England. They are 2-1 up from the first leg of their Conference League tie against Lille. They play the second leg in France at 5.45pm BST.