Enemy understands Kyiv won't be disarmed - Expert

Kyiv, Air Defense Forces (photo: Getty Images)

Russia is changing its tactics of shelling Ukraine, targeting cities that are not protected by Western air defense systems with ballistic missiles.

What is Russia trying to achieve and how to protect Ukraine – is discussed in the column of RBC-Ukraine by military-political observer of the group Information Resistance Oleksandr Kovalenko

Russia is testing new patterns of shelling Ukraine. While previously Kyiv was mostly targeted with ballistic missiles, today the Russian Air Force is striking other Ukrainian cities that are not 100% protected.

The missiles that the Ukrainian Air Force fails to intercept in those areas where they are flying to were not intercepted before either, because the modern air defense systems provided by Western partners are too few to cover the entire country. Therefore, the number of successful hits has increased, as the Russian army started targeting those areas with missiles that lack defense. Where missiles like Kinzhal or Iskander land, there are no Patriot SAMs.

Moreover, Western media, by creating such waves and claiming that Ukraine is running out of ammunition for air defense systems, are inadvertently aiding the enemy. They draw more attention to this issue. Of course, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not disclose the actual amount of ammunition left.

Today, the Russian forces are using missiles with complex flight trajectories, but they have done so before. What they have changed in their tactics is moving away from attempts to break through the air defense systems over Kyiv. What to do about this – is to wait for international partners to provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons. And in this case, Western media, which create a panic wave out of this, are helping us in this. Because they draw attention to it.

The Russian army has accumulated missiles, that’s true. They have their own production, and the accumulation process occurs when there are no mass attacks. The Kremlin has long planned an energy terror, but for February. But first, the Russian forces decided to conduct a New Year terror. The energy terror was postponed from February to March, because unexpectedly for them, their A-50 planes began to “fall.” And practically, their missiles were left without guidance, because it is precisely with the help of the A-50 that the process of guiding missiles to targets occurs.

So now the Russian army is implementing the plan they were supposed to carry out in February. And this plan is more effective and efficient than the one Surovikin (former commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces) had in 2022 when he started the energy terror. Currently, Russia is utilizing its resources more effectively, although back in 2022, during the energy terror, we saw that they acted quite primitively. But of course, no one would “correct” them. Over this year, the Russian forces have analyzed everything, drawn conclusions, and figured out how to increase the efficiency of strikes on the energy infrastructure – simply by hitting those areas of Ukraine where there’s nothing to intercept Kinzhals and Iskanders.

At the same time, the enemy understands perfectly well that Kyiv won’t be disarmed. As soon as the Patriots are removed from the capital of Ukraine, hundreds of missiles and Shaheds will immediately fly there. Defending Kharkiv is also difficult, but possible – either with Patriot SAMs or SAMP-T. However, defending a city near the front line involves a complex scheme of locations and placement. The short distance from the border with Russia allows them to conduct reconnaissance as well as hunt for these SAMs.

As of today, there is a problem with covering the entire territory with air defense systems in Ukraine. It’s clear that missiles are needed, but what’s also needed are the actual systems, not just long-range ones like SAMP-T or Patriot, but also medium-range ones like IRIS-T and NASAMS. All of this is necessary to effectively cover the sky. The airspace is not closed, so Russian missiles can penetrate deep into the country’s hinterland – whether they are cruise, ballistic, or hypersonic missiles. They know flight routes that allow them to do this.

And one component of this terror is to force negotiations. But this coercion is solely on the terms of the terrorist.