Don't expect Scottie Scheffler to continue this run of dominance

Scottie Scheffler.

It’s almost impossible to imagine Scottie Scheffler not winning a golf tournament right now. The World No. 1 just won The Masters by four strokes to secure his second green jacket in three years, and he was one five-foot putt away from winning four straight starts on the PGA Tour. Scheffler looks invincible right now, but this impressive run of form isn’t going to last forever.

In fact, history says his winning streak is about to go ice cold.

Let’s not forget Scheffler went on a similar run last year when he won the WM Phoenix Open and The Players Championship in the span of a month. He led the Tour in 2023 in strokes gained from tee to green by a wide margin, just as he’s doing this season, but he didn’t win another tournament after The Players.

In the spring of 2022, he won four times in six starts and capped it off with a Masters victory for his first major championship title. He then went 10 months before winning his next PGA Tour event.

That’s become a theme for green jacket winners in recent years. Remember when Dustin Johnson won the fall Masters in 2020? Yeah, he didn’t win another PGA Tour event then jumped to LIV Golf in June 2022. Hideki Matsuyama won the green jacket in 2021, and he went winless the rest of the season. Jon Rahm, who won The Masters in 2023, still hasn’t won a PGA Tour or LIV event since.

Look, we’re not trying to downplay Scheffler’s recent dominance. he has lost to one player in his last four starts, and he’s finished worse than 10th only seven times in his last 36 events. That level of consistency is wildly impressive, but it’s also unsustainable. Not to over-simplify this, but winning on the PGA Tour is really, really hard. Scheffler is making it look easy right now, but that likely won’t last much longer.

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