Trump's first criminal trial begins with huge challenge: finding 12 unbiased jurors

Most days, Bajia Reed teaches American history. On Monday morning, she felt like she was living it.

She showed up for jury duty outside the courthouse in Lower Manhattan, wondering if she’d be on the massive jury pool for Donald Trump’s criminal trial.

It’s the first criminal trial of a sitting or former U.S. president and may be the only such case heard before the November presidential election. The immediate challenge: finding 12 people capable of serving on a jury and putting aside their own personal biases about Trump.

“I think this is American political history,” Reed said as she lined up on the sidewalk, just behind a row of scores of television cameras from outlets around the world.

“It is the moment to test what our founders really crafted in our founding documents. We need those to be true, and we need to hold him to every letter of the law.”

Teacher Bajia Reed reporting for jury duty on Monday. She says she doesn’t think she’ll wind up on the Trump jury. Also, she says she thinks he’s guilty. (Alexander Panetta/CBC)

The statistical odds are low of her making the final cut — 12 jurors, plus alternates. She says she’ll probably be excused, given her teaching duties at a private girls’ school on the Upper East Side.

Another complicating factor? She has a clear opinion on the Trump case: “Oh, he’s totally guilty.”

Unique challenge

And there’s the unique challenge of this case involving Trump’s payments to a porn-star paramour to keep her silent about their affair.

Trump is accused of committing 34 state felonies by paying Stormy Daniels to stay silent during the 2016 election, and hiding those payments, in violation of election-spending laws.

The case may ultimately hinge on whether he actually intended to skirt any of those election-spending laws, but that’s an issue for later.

The first challenge is picking a jury, which is expected to take more than a week — though some analysts predict could drag on for more than two weeks — with the bulk of the trial likely lasting through most of the spring.

This means Trump will be tethered to Manhattan for the four days per week the court sits (Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday) instead of criss-crossing the country campaigning.

Jury selection didn’t start immediately on Monday. Trump entered the courtroom just after 9:30 a.m.ET, and the first morning of the proceedings featured debates over motions and evidence. At times, Trump appeared indifferent; at others, he expressed agitation to his lawyers.

‘Proud to be here’: Trump

Trump and his allies seemed intent on transforming the courthouse into their virtual campaign stage. Pro-Trump celebrities were outside the courtroom, determined to turn the lemons of his legal travails into political lemonade.

They denounced his alleged persecution, as did Trump himself when he paused to speak to TV cameras in the courthouse hallway.

“It’s an assault on America,” Trump said. “And that’s why I’m proud to be here … I’m very honoured to be here.”

Tim Smith is a Pennsylvania artist who travels the country to sell art at Trump court events. He hopes for a guilty verdict that damages Trump electorally. (Alexander Panetta/CBC)

If he’s proud to be there, he wasn’t acting like it in recent months, as he repeatedly tried quashing the case, and getting the judge, Juan Merchan, dismissed because of his daughter’s political work for Democrats and his own $35 in donations to Democrats.

Out in the street, an anti-Trump protester voiced what appears to be the majority view of legal and political analysts entering the case.

That view is that Trump, if convicted, is unlikely to be sent to jail for crimes that carry a maximum of four years per count.

“Oh no. But he’ll be a felon,” said Tim Smith, an artist from Pennsylvania who sells works from outside Trump court appearances, holding up a poster that said, “Loser.”

And if he’s a felon, Smith said, that might hurt the re-election chances of a man he views as an anti-democratic, anti-American, budding dictator. Some polls have suggested a guilty conviction could shave a few points off of Trump’s support.

“What will hopefully affect voter-base turnout,” Smith said.

Searching for unbiased jurors in Manhattan

Given the political overtones of the case, it’s no surprise that politics will be part of the jury selection process.

Jurors will have to fill out a questionnaire. It asks dozens of questions including about their opinions related to Trump, and this case, what media they read, and what books they might have read from parties connected to the case.

Trump’s challenge here is finding unbiased jurors in Manhattan, where most people have a clear opinion on him — and it’s overwhelmingly negative.

Democrats outnumber Republicans nine to one in this county and it’s why he tried moving the case to the suburbs; that gambit failed, as this county is where he lived, and where key facts of the case unfolded.

“The beliefs of the people judging you are always critical and often more important than facts,” said Tim Bakken, a New York lawyer, former prosecutor and law professor at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.

“The Trump team must find jurors who have the mental strength to reject their political leanings, ironically in a politically-charged case, and trust that only the law should guide them to a verdict.”

Predictions 

But Trump has one major statistical advantage: the prosecution needs a unanimous decision for a conviction; he doesn’t.

“They only need one juror to acquit,” said Mark Cohen, a longtime New York criminal defence and prosecution lawyer.

He said politics won’t be the only factor in picking jurors. The prosecution and defence will also weigh personal traits, Cohen said.

For example, he said, the prosecution will look for people who’ve made difficult decisions in their professional or personal lives. The defence will look for independent-minded people, capable of rejecting a herd mentality.

“I do expect it’ll move rather quickly,” Cohen said, predicting a smoother process than some others do.

“[It’ll take] a few days — maybe a week on the outside.”

And then there’s the trial.

Prospective New York City juror Reed made her own predictions before entering the courthouse Monday to learn her assignment.

She says she thinks Trump stands an excellent chance of being elected president again. And she doesn’t foresee a conviction here, saying she has little faith in the system.

“No, I don’t,” she said, before being ushered by police into the courthouse. Motioning to the row of TV cameras, she said: “This — all of this — it’s just political theatre. It’s theatre.

“But at least he will go through the process.”