Dec 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass during the first half against the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium.
FRISCO, Texas — The Dallas Cowboys squaring off against the Green Bay Packers in the postseason always feels personal. Second-seeded Dallas vs. seventh-seeded Green Bay on Sunday will be the ninth time the two iconic franchises square off in the postseason, tied for the most playoff meetings between two teams all time.
The last playoff showdown between the two historic franchises came when current Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy still repped the Green and Gold in the 2016 NFC divisional round. Future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers led a game-winning drive that allowed kicker Mason Crosby to drill a 51-yard field goal as time expired for a 34-31 Packers victory, upsetting the top-seeded Cowboys and the then-NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Prescott, McCarthy’s current pupil.
This week, McCarthy is refusing to take a trip down memory lane when comes to talking about that game or his Packers emotions in general.
“I am not reflecting,” McCarthy said Monday when asked about Prescott’s first playoff game when McCarthy’s Packers upset the Dallas Cowboys in the 2016 NFC divisional round. “A great game. Dak and I have spoken about the particulars of the game time and time again, and even more so when you go through different situations. There were situations in that game that came up, and now that we’re in the same offense, he can see the similarities and why we do what we do, and really the history about it. We’ve talked about that game a number of times.”
Ahead of the two teams’ Week 10 last season, McCarthy indulged questions about his Packers tenure since he was getting set to face them for the first time as the head coach of the Cowboys with the game set to be played in the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field on Nov. 13, 2022. His attitude about his homecoming soured after the Cowboys blew a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter, 28-14, to lose 31-28 in overtime against the Packers.
Rodgers, playing through a broken thumb on his throwing hand, connected with then-rookie wide receiver Christian Watson for 107 yards and three receiving touchdowns, tying him with Hall of Fame wideout Randy Moss (1998) for the most receiving touchdowns in a game all-time against Dallas. Green Bay running back Aaron Jones, a fifth-round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft — McCarthy’s penultimate class as the Packers head coach — ran wild for 138 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries, 5.8 yards per rush.
Jones remains, but Green Bay’s preeminent Aaron, Rodgers — a four-time NFL MVP and Super XLV MVP — is now a New York Jet after 15 seasons as the Packers starting quarterback. The present-day Green Bay squad is now the youngest playoff team since the 1974 Buffalo Bills — the average age is 25 years, 214 days old — including first-year full-time starting quarterback Jordan love. Its 302 receptions, 3,642 receiving yards and 31 receiving touchdowns by first- or second-year players are all the most by a team in a single season since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger.
In typical Packers fashion, Love is playing like one of the league’s best regardless of the youth movement that left many in the football world feeling like 2023 was a rebuilding year in Green Bay. His 32 passing touchdowns this season are four more than Rodgers had in his first season replacing Hall of Famer Brett Favre in 2008, ranking second in the league this season behind only Dak Prescott’s NFL-best 36. That makes Sunday’s contest the first-ever wild card game between the top-two outright league leaders in passing touchdowns.
“Love has been playing some good football in his first year as a starter,” Cowboys safety Jayron Kearse said Monday. “Thirty-plus touchdowns. He’s being put in great situations, they’re scheming some great things up. You got those running backs, A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones, doing a great job of controlling the game with the run. They definitely provide a challenge. With Green Bay, they’ve won, they know how to win. It’s definitely going to be a challenge, but one that we will definitely be up for. Love has been playing pretty good. They have (Matt) LaFleur, who is dialing things up.”
How will the postseason epic play out? We’ve got you covered.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 14 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
TV: Fox | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Cowboys -7; O/U 50.5
When the Packers have the ball
One of the driving forces for Green Bay’s offense in their Week 10 win day was running back Aaron Jones. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur was determined to wear out a Cowboys defense much more well-equipped to defend the pass from the start a year ago, calling running plays on 16 of the Packers’ first 21 plays from scrimmage on their first three drives of that game.
In three of Dallas’ five losses this season, the Cowboys have been bludgeoned on the ground, allowing at least 170 yards rushing in all three of those contests. In their 31-10 debacle at the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, the Cowboys surrendered 266 rushing yards, the most under defensive coordinator Dan Quinn since 2021.
Bills running back James Cook totaled a career-high 179 rushing yards on 25 carries with a touchdown, a 24-yarder. That came out to a 7.2 yards-per-carry average in that game. In their upcoming matchup with Jones, the Cowboys defense will face the running back who has been the franchise’s hardest to slow down: The El Paso native averages 123.3 rushing yards per game against Dallas, the most by any player with a minimum three games played, according to NFL Media Senior Researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno.
While historical trends are nice, Jones is also en fuego at the present moment. He has three consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards, the longest active streak in the NFL. After dealing with a nagging hamstring injury since Week 1 at the Chicago Bears, he is finally healthy.
“Me and Micah [Parsons] have been playing great edge defense this whole year,” Dallas Cowboys defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence said Thursday. “It’s really about, if they want to run it, go ahead. We’ll beat them there. It’s really not a thing. It’s really all about us. They have to come in here and keep up with our speed and our tenacity. Give him [Jones] the ball as many times as you want.”
Green Bay did just that a year ago, but this time, the Cowboys defense follows Lawrence’s lead. He graded out as the NFL’s second-best edge defender against the run in 2023 with a 92.4 Pro Football Focus run defense grade, barely trailing Pro Bowl Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (92.7).
Should Dallas halt Jones on early downs, they’ll have to deal with a quarterback playing like one of the league’s best in Love. The 25-year-old signal-caller had a rocky middle portion of 2023, but he finished the regular season as one of the league’s best deep-ball passers. Love’s 40 completions of 25 or more yards are tied for the second most in the NFL with Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and trail only San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy’s 47.
Only Prescott had more touchdown passes (19) than Love (18) in the last eight games of the regular season. Naturally, Green Bay won as many games in that span (6-2) as it lost in its first nine games (3-6). However, if he drops back looking to throw deep — something that can take a little bit more time — Love could be in trouble.
Cowboys All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons is the NFL’s top quarterback antagonist. In 2023, Parsons led the NFL in quarterback pressures (103), quarterback pressure rate (21.8%) and pass rush win rate (35.3%), which is when a defender beats his block in less than 2.5 seconds. This is incredible considering Parsons was double-teamed on 35% of his pass-rush plays in 2023, the most in the league among edge players, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. No other edge rusher was double-teamed at a 30% or higher rate. As a result, Dallas pass rush leads the NFL in quarterback pressure rate (45%) as a group in 2023 .
“He started off hot, had some trials and tribulations, covered him all year,” edge rusher Micah Parsons said Thursday. “I think Jordan Love has grown toward this end of the year, this back-end stretch, into the player that the Packers thought he would be at that pick they took him. A lot of people questioned why they took him. I think he had proven a lot of people wrong. One of the greatest seasons by a Packer as a starter. Jordan Love is doing exactly what he’s supposed to do. It’s something that we talked about in the offseason. He was like, ‘I’m going to go out there and ball out.’ So super happy for him.”
Jordan Love this season
| LOVE (2023 SEASON) | FIRST NINE GAMES | LAST EIGHT GAMES |
|---|---|---|
| Passer Rating | 80.5 | 112.7 |
* Sixth QB all-time with 18+ pass TD & 0 or 1 INT in final 8 games of a season
These last eight games provided the Packers with the knowledge that they have found their future at quarterback in Love. While it might seem hyperbolic to compare Love with his Packers predecessor in Rodgers, the team’s all-time leader in passing touchdowns with 475, Love’s closing stretch of 2023 resembled Rodgers’ run toward his latest MVP award in the 2021 season. He became just the sixth quarterback all-time to throw for at least 18 touchdowns and one or zero interceptions in his final eight games of a year. Love finished 2023 with consecutive NFC Offensive Player of the Week awards in Weeks 17 and 18 at the Minnesota Vikings and against the Chicago Bears after throwing for 572 yards and five touchdowns on 78.5% (51-65) passing.
18+ pass TD and 0 or 1 INT in final eight games (NFL history)
| SEASON | PLAYER |
|---|---|
*Won MVP
One of the key characteristics of Love’s game is his ability to maintain a strong amount of zip and arm strength on his passes while backpedaling in the pocket and throwing off of his back foot, a signature component of Rodgers’ game.
“It’s tough because he’s never in a compromised position,” Kearse said of Love on Wednesday. “Usually when guys are throwing off their back foot and backpedaling and going off their back foot, it usually doesn’t have much zip on it. It gives the defensive backs a lot of opportunities to get there and make plays on the ball. When he’s doing that, there’s still zip on it. He’s still getting the ball there. That’s something that’s been tremendous when I talk about A-Rod-like things. That’s one of the things I see.”
Based on that movement and willingness to heave the football from a variety of arm angles and throwing platforms, he’s been a tough player to gauge in film study during the week.
“He’s kind of unpredictable with his arm talent,” cornerback DaRon Bland, the NFL’s interceptions leader (nine) and single-season pick-sixes leader (five), said Wednesday.
“A lot of deep shots,” Parsons added Thursday when asked what stands out about Love. “He makes his reads pretty good, make them quick. He can make any throw. He’s fearless back there. And he’s smart. It’s going to be real challenging. A lot of styles. He trusts his receivers to go make (plays). You can tell he played under Rodgers. Some of his mechanics, some of his movements, reads, and fearlessness, you can tell he learned a lot from Rodgers. I think he has that ability (to throw off his back foot) because of his height. A lot of quarterbacks struggle because of their height and they’re not able to still see, but his length adds another factor to how good he is and how good he will become.”
The best gauge of how Rodgers-like Love is would be none other than Rodgers’ head coach of 13 seasons, current Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy. He confirmed what his team sees when turning on the tape: the Packers’ current No. 10 (Love) looks like the artist formerly known as No. 12 (Rodgers), who carried over qualities from the starter prior to him, No. 4 (Favre).
“I’ve been really impressed with Jordan,” McCarthy said Thursday. “I think he’s made a lot of off-tempo plays, extended plays. His ability to hang on the back foot, their downfield passing game caught our attention, and he’s a big part of it. I think he’s definitely doing a hell of a job, and I think just like anything whether your football team is younger or not so young, you want to see progress through the year. Obviously, the quarterback position is a big part of that. He’s done that and I think he’s doing a hell of a job. There’s stuff that carried over there (between Rodgers and Love). That’s a huge benefit. That’s the third time it’s happened up there (in Green Bay).”
When the Cowboys have the ball
Dallas possesses the highest scoring offense in the NFL (29.9) points per game, and Dak Prescott has a legitimate NFL MVP case, leading the league in passing touchdowns (36) while ranking in the top five in numerous metrics across the board.
Dak Prescott this season
| NFL QB RANK | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pass Yards | 4,516 | 3rd |
| Expected Points Added/Play | 0.18 | 2nd |
Much of that production came with 24-year-old wide receiver CeeDee Lamb on the other side of Prescott’s NFL-best 410 completions. Lamb broke Hall of Famer Michael Irvin’s team, single-season records for catches (135) and receiving yards (1,749) in 16 games while leading the entire NFL in targets (181), catches (135) and catches of 20 or more yards (29, tied with Dolphins All-Pro Tyreek Hill).
Prescott and Lamb mark the first time the same team has had both the NFL’s leader in touchdown passes and catches in the same season on the same team. The last squad to have both was the 2007 New England Patriots with future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady and Wes Welker. That group won their first 18 games of the year before falling just short in the Super Bowl.
CeeDee Lamb this season
| NFL WR RANKS |
|---|
*Leads NFL
In the matchup against the Packers a year ago, a 31-28 overtime road loss in Green Bay, Lamb went off for 150 yards and two receiving touchdowns on 11 catches. He will be in line for another massive day on Sunday. However, he and Prescott will look to be much more connected on a route-by-route basis since both of Prescott’s two interceptions in that Week 10 defeat last season can be attributed to communication issues.
“Yeah, and they are still eating at me,” Lamb said Thursday when asked about his role in Prescott’s two interceptions against the Packers last season. “We were watching the film all week actually, and I still remember those two plays. Just making it clear for him [Prescott], so he doesn’t have any uncertainty. Playing fast and having him know exactly where I’m going to be before I’ll be there and me being there like he trusts me to be. Just being on the same, all that offseason work is what we needed to show up. We have to be great….A lot of things have transpired since that and a lot of messages and knowledge has been passed on between us two since that. It should be good.”
The dynamic duo of Prescott and Lamb is most lethal on the money down, third down. Prescott led the NFL in completion percentage (69%) and passer rating (116.7) on third down this season. Much of that production obviously went Lamb’s way as he was targeted 46 times on third down, tied for the second-most in the NFL behind only Bears wideout D.J. Moore. He came away with a catch for a first down on 29 of those targets, 63% first-down conversion rate. That’s tied for the second-best third-down conversion catch rate in the league with Dolphins All-Pro Tyreek Hill and trailing only 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk’s 66.7% rate (18 third-down conversion receptions on 27 third-down targets).
“That just goes to the communication that I’ve talked about all year long of Coach [McCarthy] defining exactly what the play is for, what it’s built for, how it’s going to beat the opponent, the playcaller’s purpose and those guys understanding where they need to be, their routes, their depths, their speed, their spacing, being tied into my feet,” Prescott said Thursday. “So it’s really in a sense, night and day when you’re talking about my confidence and where those guys are being, their understanding of what I’m going to do, where I’m throwing the ball and from there everything works out. When you got a guy like CeeDee Lamb, really doesn’t matter where you put him, what matchup you put him in, the confidence is huge and he’s earned that. He’s proven he’s the best receiver in the game if you ask me. And this will be another opportunity for him to go and do that against a good cornerback and a good young secondary and defense.”
As a team, the Cowboys converted on third downs at a 48.3% rate, the second-best in the NFL trailing only the Bills’ 49.8% rate. Meanwhile, the Packers defense — often criticized for lining up defensive backs too far off the line of scrimmage in zone coverage on third downs — allowed opposing offenses to convert third downs into first downs at a 41.1% rate, the eighth-highest rate in the entire NFL. That’s a big edge in Dallas’ favor.
Prediction
The way Love is playing currently and the way Prescott has played all year indicate this is a matchup in which both offenses can go score for score. Ultimately, this game will come to down to which defense can make the big play and force a takeaway or a punt in a key spot.
The unit with Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland on it certainly is the one most likely to do that. Plus with this game being played at AT&T Stadium, a building in which the Cowboys have won 16 games in a row dating back to last season, Dallas is primed to exact revenge for its previous struggles against Green Bay.
Score: Cowboys 34, Packers 24
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