Tomorrow's Dunkley by-election is a test for both Albanese and Dutton. These are the issues on voters' minds

Labor retained the seat of Dunkley on a 6.3 per cent margin at the last election. (ABC News)

Liberal by-election hopeful Nathan Conroy wants an open conversation about nuclear power, but has refused to say whether he’d support a reactor close to the seat of Dunkley in Melbourne’s outer south-east.

Power is just one of a number of issues in this weekend’s by-election, which both sides of politics are predicting will be a tight contest.

Overwhelmingly, the two “Cs” — cost of living and crime — were the biggest issues for locals the ABC spoke to when it visited Carrum Downs ahead of the poll triggered by the death of popular local Labor MP Peta Murphy.

Labor holds the seat by 6.3 per cent, but is bracing for a swing against it.

The by-election is a health check for the Albanese government, but also a test to see if Peter Dutton’s strategy of focusing on outer-suburban and regional seats can help him win office next year.

Dunkley is a classic outer-suburban seat that is less multicultural than the rest of Melbourne.

In recent weeks, the federal Coalition has been talking about nuclear power as an option, both to ensure power supply and to help keep power bills down as a cost-of-living crisis grips the nation.

The ABC spoke to both candidates as they handed out how-to-vote cards at the Carrum Downs pre-poll centre this week.

“I think we need we need to have an open conversation about nuclear power, we need to have a conversation about every single energy source,” Mr Conroy said.

When the former Frankston mayor was asked if he was happy to have a nuclear power plant in or near the electorate, he refused to answer.

“Look, that’s that’s that’s a long time away,” he said.

Both Mr Conroy and Labor candidate Jodie Belyea are acutely aware that cost of living is the biggest issue weighing on voters’ minds.

Labor is spruiking its changes to stage 3 tax cuts, with Ms Belyea claiming that 87 per cent of Dunkley voters would be better off under the tax cuts changes that passed the federal parliament this week.

Mr Conroy said money from advertising the tax changes should be redirected to food banks.

A game-changing intervention

Dunkley voters rejected the Voice at last year’s referendum, with 56 per cent voting No.

Ms Belyea later posted on LinkedIn, saying she was feeling “so many heavy emotions because of the display of what I can only describe as the worst of white privilege in this country”.

Asked about those comments at the pre-polling centre, Ms Belyea said Australia was the greatest country in the world, with “an incredible democracy”.

“I respect that everyone has made choices about the outcome of the referendum and people’s choices about that. I’m not focused on that. I’m focused on the future of Dunkley,” she said.

Advance Australia, a conservative third-party campaign group, found its voice during the referendum and is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on the by-election with material attacking the Albanese government.

Labor and Liberal MPs and strategists say it is a .

Advance also paid for a full page in the Herald Sun newspaper, complete with inflammatory language, warning about “rapists, paedophiles and murderers” who may have been released into the community following the High Court’s decision to release some people held in immigration detention.

“How many in Dunkley, we demand you tell us before March 2,” the ad bellowed.

Neither Ms Belyea nor Mr Conroy would be drawn on Advance’s tactics, but voters surveyed by the ABC were divided, with some calling it “reprehensible” while others said it definitely forced them to rethink their vote.

Candidate says voters are ‘sleeping with bats’ amid crime concerns

Despite crime primarily being a state government matter, there is palpable concern in Dunkley.

Official figures from Victoria’s Crime Statistics Agency reveal that voters sensitive to criminal justice issues have something to worry about.

For year ending September 2023, the crime rate in the Frankston local government area was 7,036 criminal incidents per 100,000 people — higher than the Victorian rate of 5,536 per 100,000.

Last year, there were 10,029 criminal incidents in the area, which represents a 16.2 per cent increase on the year before.

Almost 38 per cent of crimes remained unsolved, with main offences being theft from cars, breaching bail conditions, criminal damage and breaching family violence orders.

A further breakdown shows that crime mostly happens in the suburb of Frankston (5,270 incidents) followed by Seaford (1,499 incidents) and Carrum Downs (1,292 incidents).

Mr Conroy said bringing down the cost of living and housing affordability were important steps to tackle crime.

“People in Mount Eliza, Carrum Downs are sleeping, all the women are sleeping, with bats next to them,” Mr Conroy said.

But Mr Conroy was not able to quantify the claim about how many people had weapons as protection.

Ms Belyea said she had heard those fears.

She said, if elected, she would work with state and local governments to tackle the issue, highlighting the potential of the communities many sports clubs to tackle the issue.

Strategists say they’ve noticed crime is an increasing concern for federal voters across the country, and that Dunkley may not be alone.