Can Modi finally win over the southern states and reshape India’s electoral map?

K Annamalai, one of the BJP’s most talked-about candidates, is campaigning in Tamil Nadu, where Modi hopes to make major gains Photograph: Jagadeesh Nv/EPA

Under Tamil Nadu’s scorching midday sun, K Annamalai waved at the crowd gathered around his campaign bus. Some people stretched their babies upwards to be touched by him, others threw flower petals and passed gifts through the window. A sea of mobile phones vied for space as people tried to squeeze the candidate into their selfies.

Here in Coimbatore, an industrial city in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) has been working overtime. Over months, thousands of volunteers and party workers have taken to the streets – backed hundreds of locally-targeted WhatsApp groups and a highly-organised social media campaign across YouTube, Facebook and Instagram – whipping up a frenzy around Annamalai, one of the BJP’s most talked-about candidates.

In the build up to India’s mammoth six-week election, which began in April and will continue till 4 June, the BJP has been focusing its efficient campaign machinery, backed by vast financial resources, on winning south Indian constituencies like Coimbatore.

Making a breakthrough into India’s southern states, among the richest and most well-educated in the country, is crucial to Modi’s ambitions to gain an even larger parliamentary majority in this election and extend the reach of the BJP to every corner of the country. However, it will be no easy feat for his party.

Unlike across north India, where the BJP’s dominance is now largely assured, southern states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala have continued to push back against Modi and the Hindu nationalist narrative of his party. The BJP has never won a seat in Kerala, and it won no seats in Tamil Nadu in the last election, in 2019.

The state’s chief ministers have also emerged as some of Modi’s fiercest critics and accused the BJP of depriving them of tax income and investment to punish and undermine their governments.

Many fear that the gulf between India’s north and south could worsen after 2026, when India’s electoral map is due to be redrawn according to population growth. India’s poorer, more populous north – the stronghold of the BJP – is likely to gain parliamentary seats while southern states, which successfully brought down their populations years ago though progressive welfare and education policies, are likely to lose significant parliamentary representation.

Tamil Nadu’s chief minister M K Stalin recently described it as a “sword of Damocles” hanging over the state and has vowed to fight any seat losses.

“The south has always been a tough nut for the BJP to crack because they are primarily viewed as a north Indian, Hindi-speaking party that does not represent regional southern interests, particularly around language and culture,” said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

But this time round, predicted Vaishnav, the BJP could make “significant inroads” in these states, “perhaps even winning a fair number of seats in Tamil Nadu”. He added: “That would be a huge breakthrough for the BJP and could re-shape India’s electoral map in ways nobody thought possible five years ago.”

‘Annamalai has created so much excitement’

Resistance to the right-wing, Hindu-first politics of the BJP has historically run deep in the southern tip of India. In Tamil Nadu, India’s third richest state, the dominant political ideology for over half a century has been Dravidian nationalism, a left-wing, social equality movement. It began in opposition to upper caste hierarchy and the imposition of north Indian languages such as Hindi and is rooted in protecting the Tamil linguistic and cultural identity. Only Dravidian parties have governed the state since the 1960s.

In Kerala, the first place in the world to democratically elect a communist government in the 1957, leftist politics has also continued to dominate for decades. The state prides itself for having the highest literacy rate in south Asia, and social cohesion between Hindus and the sizeable Muslim and Christian minorities who have lived there for centuries.

In both states, secularism is widely lauded and many voters spoke of their discomfort with the BJP’s heavy-handed use of religion in politics, its Hindu-first agenda and alleged persecution of minorities.

Out on the campaign trail in Tamil Nadu, Annamalai – a former senior police officer who became BJP state president three years ago – steered clear of the overt religious themes and communal, anti-Muslim rhetoric that has become increasingly prevalent at north Indian BJP rallies, even by Modi himself.

He declared the BJP as the “natural party” for protecting Tamil and national interests, rather than “corrupt, dynastic” Dravidian parties such as Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which now rule the Tamil Nadu state government.

“It is not Dravidian politics that dominates in Tamil Nadu, it is personality politics,” said Annamalai, whose campaign team has worked to build an almost cult-like status around him. “It is the larger than life characters who grab people’s attention here.”

Accusations that the BJP intended to impose a north Indian identity on to the state were “ridiculous” he said, pointing out he didn’t even speak Hindi himself. “When I converse with our honourable prime minister, I speak in English and he speaks English back to me,” said Annamalai, who makes his close relationship with Modi well known. “Under what logic can they say we’re imposing Hindi?”

The buzz around Annamalai has certainly made the BJP more visible in Coimbatore than in the past decade. At a party rally, regional organiser S L Muthukumar said he had recently switched over from DMK. “The BJP never had much presence here before but look at how the crowds have turned out, Annamalai has created so much excitement,” he said.

First-time voters such as Bhubarashan 23, said he had been drawn in by the messages of change on the Annamalai campaign’s YouTube channel. “Annamalai is young, he is energetic, he has good ideas,” said Bhubarashan. “Modi brought development to north Indian states like Gujarat and now they are world leaders. We need that in Tamil Nadu.”

Others were more sceptical that the crowds who flocked to see Annamalai would translate into the 25% vote share and seven parliamentary seats he has optimistically projected. Loyalty to Dravidian parties like DMK, and their long-running welfare and education schemes which are credited with lifting millions out of poverty, is deeply entrenched. Meanwhile, many accused Modi of neglecting the state and ruining their businesses with the imposition of a nationwide goods and services tax that is highly unpopular across Tamil Nadu.

N Rajan, 62, said he was a lifelong supporter of DMK and was highly critical of Modi, who he blamed for the rising costs of food and essentials. “Modi thinks he can suddenly start visiting Tamil Nadu for our votes, when all his government has done in ten years is neglect us and then take our hard-earned money,” he said.

‘We don’t mix god with politics’

Over the border in Kerala, where Muslims make up 26% of the population and Christians 18%, the BJP looks likely to have an even tougher fight. The BJP’ campaign has been hampered by Modi’s record in the state of Manipur, where the Christian minority are facing ongoing ethnic violence while the prime minister is accused of turning a blind eye. While the BJP’s vote share is expected to increase in the state, few believed it will translate into any parliamentary seats.

One constituency where the party has high hopes is Thrissur, an affluent, culture-rich city on Kerala’s coast. Their candidate Suresh Gopi, a former star of south Indian cinema, steered clear of any Hindu nationalist narratives and spoke of “spreading love and ending hatred”, stressing that he “does not see religion” when it comes to voters. One of his main messages on the campaign trail has been to “vote for the man, not the party”.

One of those he won over was 19-year-old nursing student Dathan. “We want a change, we want development and Modi is the strongest leader in India” he said. “Look, we all know in the end there is no other option other than Modi.”

Yet Dathan, a Hindu, also spoke uncomfortably of the BJP’s record on minorities, placing his arm around fellow Muslim and Christian students as he spoke. “These are my brothers, no politics can divide us,” he said.

Frustration was rife against the Congress and Communist party-led coalitions that have alternately governed Kerala for decades but most appeared willing to put it aside in the face of perceived threats to secularism and democratic norms under the BJP. “In Kerala, we worship god but we don’t mix it with politics and we reject those that do,” said K. Muraleedharan, the local candidate for the Congress-led coalition.

Sheela George, 54, a teacher, accused the BJP of “only focusing on temple building, not education or development.” She added: “They know if people get the high levels of education we have in Kerala, the BJP would not win any more elections.”

KA Shaji contributed reporting