Can Canada’s Nijjar probe results and arrest of 3 Indians put India in a corner?

Canada’s indulgence of pro-Khalistan elements had been a long-festering issue in India-Canada ties, but PM Justin Trudeau precipitated an unprecedented diplomatic crisis with India last year when he claimed in the House of Commons there were “credible allegations” about the Indian government’s involvement in the murder of separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on June 18, 2023.

After nine months of political and diplomatic wrangling, what remains clear is that Canada — unlike the US which too has alleged India’s role in the foiled attempt on another Khalistan leader’s life — is yet to share any evidence or information to back its claim.

While India formed a high-level committee to probe the US allegations, the government remains dismissive of Canadian claims in the absence of any actionable information.

Foreign minister S Jaishankar has cited two reasons for this compartmentalisation of India’s response so far. First, of course, is that the US has shared information that, according to him and other Indian authorities, has a bearing on India’s own security too. Second, he says, the US, unlike Canada, doesn’t normalise extremism and separatism in the name of freedom of speech.

However, in a development that will likely upend the status quo on the Nijjar issue, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) last week arrested three Indian nationals, charging them with first degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder.

Canada has so far not said these individuals were contracted by any Indian official or agent, but the police have not closed the investigations and more revelations, linked possibly to their connections with the Indian government, are likely.

“We are aware that others may have played a role in this homicide, and we remain dedicated to finding and arresting each one of these individuals,” a senior Canadian official said, while announcing the arrests.

Linking Pannun case with Nijjar’s murder

These dramatic arrests followed months of glacial progress in the case that saw the Canadian government admitting in a parliamentary hearing in February that all it had shared with India till then was allegation, and not any evidence to prove that anyone in the Indian government ordered the hit on Nijjar.

It had, however, also said that with progress in the investigations, Canada will be able to share information for India to consider. The arrests suggest that the Canadian probe might be nearing an inflection point, like the US probe did in the Pannun murder plot with the indictment of Indian national Nikhil Gupta, where local authorities will be able to share more information about the alleged Indian role.

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The legal processes in the US and Canada differ in that evidentiary disclosure through indictment in the latter’s case, according to Canadian authorities, comes at a more advanced stage.

Canada, however, believes its Nijjar probe has been vindicated by the disclosures in the US indictment. It has also taken note of PM Narendra Modi’s remark earlier that his government will “definitely look” into any information linking India to the assassination plots in the US and Canada.

Canada apparently believes the Indian probe into the Pannun case can be expanded, once it shares information with India, to look into the Nijjar murder as well. This is because the US indictment of Gupta in the Gurpatwant Singh murder-for-hire case also links the alleged Indian mastermind, identified by a recent Washington Post report as Vikram Yadav, with Nijjar.

In fact, the Post report — the fact that damning details about the Pannun probe were leaked to a US newspaper while India is still conducting its investigations — suggests that the Five Eyes alliance led by the US will dial up the pressure on India, even in the middle of the Indian elections, to act against the accused.

Patience might be wearing thin also because it’s been almost six months since India launched its probe and there has not been a word so far about the outcome. The Canadian arrests came days after the Post report.

Allegations of foreign interference

Coinciding with the arrests was a Canadian foreign interference inquiry report accusing Indian officials, including Canada-based “proxies”, of engaging in a range of activities that seek to influence Canadian communities and politicians.

The report identified China as the main perpetrator of foreign interference in Canada but the fact that it also accused India of the same will only intensify the diplomatic firestorm the two countries are caught in.

Canada is learnt to have sounded out India about the arrests but is yet to share detailed information about the charges against those held, or any link they might have with the Indian government. Ottawa may soon do so, holding the Indian government to the commitment that it will probe any such information.

Like the US, and several other major Western powers, Canada too has an Indo-Pacific strategy, which sees India as a reliable bulwark against Chinese expansionism.

However, as Trudeau said this week, Canada sees itself as a “rule of law” country that will stop at nothing to protect its citizens. Its immediate and most pressing priority with India is to get to the bottom of the Nijjar murder plot, in lockstep with the US efforts to bring to justice those who ordered the foiled hit on Pannun.

Canadian officials have claimed they have “human and signals” intelligence linking Indian officials to the crime. If indeed that is the case, they can be expected to pass on the same to Indian authorities, if not disclose it publicly, soon.

As he complimented the Canadian police and intelligence for the arrests, Trudeau also warned of things to come, saying when the time comes for them to conclude that investigation, there will be some “very, very clear things that everyone around the world, including in India, will see as to responsibilities and involvement”. The muck will likely hit the fan soon. Watch this space for more!