BJP scores early run in Gujarat but 2 north seats may spin chance for Congress

In cricket parlance, battleground Gujarat in the 2024 general elections could loosely be described as a face-off between a starstudded superpower armed with ferocious fast bowlers and ruthless pinch-hitters, against minnows who have got whitewashed in the past two seasons of 2019 and 2014.

Arguably, the only point of interest and speculation among pundits, commentators and spectators of the duel seemingly being the margin of victory, even as the heavyweight team has already got runs on the board without a ball being bowled. For the first time in the state, since it was carved out in 1960, BJP’s Surat Lok Sabha seat candidate Mukesh Dalal has been declared winner uncontested after the nomination of Congress candidate Nilesh Kumbhani was rejected and all the others in the fray withdrew their candidature.

In fact, Dalal’s unprecedented, uncontested win has thrown a piquant challenge for BJP and district administration: getting voters of Majura, Udhna, Limbayat and Choryasi areas of Surat city to vote, as they fall under Navsari Lok Sabha constituency. BJP state president C R Paatil is fighting Congress’s Naishad Desai in Navsari.

BJP scores early run in Gujarat but 2 north seats may spin chance for Congress

The lotus has been in full bloom in the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah, with the saffron party pulling off 26-on-26 victories in the past two general elections. BJP has upped the ante this time round, declaring its intention to win the remaining 25 seats again, with victory margins exceeding 5 lakh votes.

The targets are even higher in the big bouts involving central ministers Amit Shah, Mansukh Mandaviya and Parshottam Rupala as well as Paatil, who is tipped for a ministerial berth if NDA returns to office. BJP office-bearers have been proclaiming that Shah will pull off a record win in Gandhinagar, with a victory margin of 10 lakh votes. Over the past two general elections, BJP has notched up a huge vote share as compared with Congress.

While BJP and Congress had a vote share of 47.4% and 43.9%, respectively in 2009 general elections, the saffron party’s chunk increased to 59% and 62.2% in the 2014 and 2019 parliamentary polls, respectively. Congress’s vote share, meanwhile, fell to 32.9% and 32.1%, respectively, in the 2014 and 2019 general elections.

Hit by defections of influential leaders in the weeks leading up to the ongoing general elections, and plagued by factionalism within, Congress is struggling to hold on to its traditional vote bank. Four MLAs, including former state president Arjun Modhwadia and C J Chavda, who quit before the LS elections and joined the saffron party, are now contesting their respective seats as BJP candidates.

Bypolls for five out of six vacant assembly seats in Gujarat, too, are scheduled for May 7. BJP’s seemingly smooth ride did, however, take somewhat of a hit in March following Union minister Parshottam Rupala’s statement on royals of the erstwhile princely states.

Rupala, BJP’s Rajkot LS seat candidate, said the royals broke bread with foreign rulers and even got their daughters married to them, irking the state’s Kshatriya community that has been protesting in several parts of the state. Rupala has since apologised several times while BJP leaders have held several rounds of parleys with the agitating Kshatriyas, trying to persuade them, but in vain. While the protests remain unabated, political watchers say Kshatriya ire may end up as sound and fury and will not be potent enough to cause major damage.

BJP leadership clearly believes that Kshatriya numbers are not big enough to damage their party’s prospects, although they may dent the victory margins. There are a handful of seats though where Congress is putting up a spirited fight. In north Gujarat’s Banaskantha seat, firebrand Vav MLA Geniben Thakor, who earned the sobriquet of ‘giant killer’ after she defeated sitting assembly speaker Shankar Chaudhary in 2017 state polls, is pitched against BJP’s Rekhaben Chaudhary.

Geniben has had to resort to crowdfunding to finance her campaign while Rekhaben is the granddaughter of cooperative stalwart Galbabhai Chaudhary, who founded Banas Dairy. BJP is also encountering a contest in north Gujarat’s Sabarkantha constituency where it had to change its candidate Bhikhaji Thakor after party workers raised objections to his candidature. BJP workers insisted that his candidature will topple caste equations because though he uses Thakor surname, he does not actually belong to the community, which has a dominant presence in this constituency.

BJP then named Shobhanaben Baraiya as its candidate. But what followed was verbal duels between supporters of Baraiya and Thakor. Old-timers, who were hopeful of the Sabarkantha LS seat ticket, are also miffed that a schoolteacher with little experience in active politics has been made the nominee. Over the past couple of weeks, Kshatriyas have intensified protests in the constituency making Congress hopeful their candidate, ex-Union minister Tushar Chaudhary, could gain.

Not wanting to leave anything to chance in high-stakes Gujarat where every seat is a prestige issue for BJP, top party brass has been busy ironing out conflicts — minor or major — in key north Gujarat constituencies. Union home minister Amit Shah is reported to have summoned about 150 party functionaries, including officebearers and elected representatives, asking them to channel their efforts on winning Sabarkantha and Banaskantha seats impressively. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is contesting two of the 26 seats in the state as part of INDIA bloc, is looking to further strengthen its foothold in Gujarat’s politics.

AAP picked up a few seats in the Dec 2022 elections, and both of its sitting MLAs have been fielded as LS candidates. The party has fielded its sitting MLA Chaitar Vasava in Bharuch constituency, amid vociferous disapproval from members of Congress veteran Ahmed Patel’s family, while Umesh Makwana is fighting from Bhavnagar seat. Bharuch has been Patel’s home turf with the senior Congress leader having held the Lok Sabha seat in 1977, 1980 and 1984. While some argue that the massive influx of Congress leaders and workers into the saffron fold ahead of polls will potentially strengthen BJP, this phenomenon has also led to considerable disquiet within party workers.

The unease among BJP workers is natural, as many of these “new recruits” are placed at positions higher than those who have been serving in the party for years, and in some cases even decades, said sources. Despite BJP already being on firm ground in the state, the party is heavily banking on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to wrap up campaigning in the state with a blitzkrieg of rallies that kickstarted on Thursday.

The midsummer heat, however, could play spoilsport, affecting voter turnout, as day temperatures are expected to be very high on May 7. Political parties, electoral machinery and the state govt are all doing their bit to ensure the scorching sun doesn’t take a toll on the turnout.

In 2019 general elections, held in April, Gujarat’s voter turnout was lower than the national average. Party leaders have urged people to vote before 10.30am while the Election Commission has decided to set up special facilities at polling stations. The state govt has issued guidelines on tackling possible heat wave conditions.