Bitcoin can cross $100,000 in the next 12-18 months, says Anthony Pompliano

We’re just few days away now until the Bitcoin halving which reduces the supply of new bitcoins. Currently Bitcoin price is sitting at $62,710. Joining us now Anthony Pomplano, Pump Investments Founder and partner Want to talk about the halving, Want to talk about the run up in the in the price and also the the flip of that which we saw last weekend. You were kind enough to to tweet back at me over the weekend when we’re trying to understand some of the movements, explain to the audience what you think has happened even in the past week, both in terms of the run up and maybe this move lower. Yeah, well, let’s put everything in context, right. Talking about Bitcoin is crashing to $64,000 was a dream just a few years ago. So we’re up significantly since the last having to today about four years, we’re up 800%. So it’s been incredible performance this year. Year to date, it’s about 40%. Compare that to gold. Gold’s up 7%. You know, year to date in the last five years is only up about 11%. Now the reason why I bring that up, what I think is really interesting is you actually have lost purchasing power if you’ve held gold over the last five years. Inflation has outpaced gold’s performance. So the whole narrative of gold protects your purchasing power is now been debunked, right for the last five years. That’s not true. Bitcoin has. So when we start talking about this price run up, that 40% increase to start the year, all of a sense why is the price going up? ETF’s are a huge piece of it also. I think people leading into the halving, that’s a big piece of it. But the government has decided we’re going to debase the currency, right? And I think that now the world has understood the United States has a debt problem and we’re going to debase the currency. So there’s some of that going on as well. Now over the weekend, the price sells off and I think there’s really three things that drove that price sell off. The 1st is that whenever there’s a moment of fear, right, everyone panics and what do they still buy? Dollars. And so some people are selling because of that. The second thing is, on the weekend, even though the Bitcoin market is open, the bank system is not open and so you can’t get net new dollars into your crypto account to buy Bitcoin. So the only thing you really can do is if you’re holding Bitcoin, you can sell it. But most of the people holding Bitcoin are fully allocated, so they don’t have dollars to go buy more Bitcoin. There’s a very interesting dynamic where even though you want to buy more Bitcoin, you’re closed out of the system as well because the banking system won’t let you wire in. You’re saying people would have bought Bitcoin on Middle East tensions if the banking system were open. The the joke is that the real bitcoiners want the price to go down so they can buy more of it. So what have we seen since, you know, since then in terms of the price of, you know, we didn’t go up a lot, we didn’t go up a lot, but we’re basically flat since since. So no one is buying since Monday in on the heels of Middle East tensions. Well, I think that the other thing that’s happening is that now Bitcoin is being pulled into the legacy system. And so now it’s very hard to kind of prove this, but high frequency traders and kind of more algorithmic trading. When all of the news hit Twitter and kind of the social sentiment changed very quickly, you saw a massive amount of tweets about Iran and Israel and rockets and drones etcetera. There’s a very quick sell off. I find it hard to believe that humans were able to read Twitter immediately go to their computer and start hitting the sell button. And so there’s got to be some algorithmic trading that’s going on there as well where people are trading headlines, but it’s unclear how to measure. Let’s just understand this because part of it is so the folks who are selling likely are selling actual Bitcoin, not the ETFs because this was happening closed over the weekend, right. And so, but then the question seems like the natural follow up is why were they not back in the market either by ETFs or something? Put the algos aside since then and on the back of what I imagine is you think a bullish sign on the halving piece of this, which is about to happen. I think that markets are forward-looking and part of my analysis is just that like we went up 40% because people are already pricing some of this stuff in. If we go and we look like, you know, we have Russia invading Ukraine, we have Hamas, Israel, now we have Iran, Israel, At some point, there’s like a less severe reaction to each one of these kind of geopolitical events because I think people are starting to say, like, there are problems in the Middle East, right. And so again, that doesn’t talk down the severity of what actually happened. But I think that the financial assets themselves are becoming less sensitive to those movements. And then in terms of buying more Bitcoin, I I do think that there’s this very interesting dynamic of everybody that I know in the hardcore Bitcoin community, they’ve bought as much Bitcoin as they possibly can. The net new dollars that are going to come into this industry are going to come from Wall Street, Right. And So what is Wall Street doing? Wall Street is not rushing to go buy Bitcoin today. And I think that there’s a lot of folks on Wall Street who don’t yet even understand the having. And so what’s going to really play out here is over the next, you know, 12 to 18 months, we’ll see that impact. And they’re not buying because I mean, the only reason you wouldn’t buy today besides that you may not have the opportunity, which is to say there’s an argument that, you know, advises a lot of firms don’t have, don’t have an offer yet. But there’s also the view I think by some that the price is still going to come down. So how do you see, I mean, what do you see as the window for where the price sits right now? Yeah, so if we look at price movements themselves, bitcoins down about 8%, nine percent in 2017 bull market, there was 13 drawdowns of 12% or more. There was 13 drawdowns of 10% or more in the 2020 drawdown from Galaxy Research. And so when you see that big of drawdowns, 8% is actually pretty small drawdown compared to most times in bull markets. And so my expectation here is that Wall Street is probably trying to time the market a little bit, understand you know what’s the price level, so looking at technicals etcetera. But over time what we have found is that in these draw downs, they’re getting less and less severe. So the asset itself is becoming less volatile, which means that the upside gets more limited, but also the downside is muted. We’ll take Kathy Woods prediction out of it, but for the next 12 months for you, yeah, potential high upside, potential downside. I think downside is pretty muted at this point. Like it, again, it’s impossible to tell. There’s always the external event that could occur. But I would say I don’t see it going below like 50,000 at any point. I think we’ve kind of crossed over that Rubicon in terms of upside. I think we get over 100,000 in the next, you know, 1218 months. Maybe we could get to 150 to 200, somewhere in that range. But like we go up from here, I just don’t think people should expect the explosive, you know, 1000% move from here through the rest of the bull market.