Big Tech repricing hasn't even started yet, says KKM's Jeff Kilburg

Welcome back. Stocks retreating from their lows after the Dow fell more than 700 points as data and earnings weigh on the indexes. But there could be more pain ahead according to our next guest. He says the big tech repricing hasn’t even transpired yet. Joining us now, Jeff Kilberg, KKM Financial founder and CEO and a CNBC contributor. Jeff, great to see you is today in light of what Meta did, in light of IBM take us take apart, take a set aside for now. Caterpillar is today a kind of transformational day, a demon, a day of demarcation in some sense. I think it is time. It all depends on what lens you’re looking through. But when you talk about the NFL draft or your imminent stock draft, there’s more than one round in any of these drafts. So I think we are just in the first round and there’s seven rounds the NFL draft. So if you look at NVIDIA or Metaphor example, I think you have to understand the actual exposure. There’s 484 different ETFs that own NVIDIA, Von Eck, VTi as well as SMH. They have over 200 million shares of NVIDIA just in those two ETFs. So I think it’s fascinating that we had three weeks of turbulence, 3 weeks of volatility and remember the VIX is under 20, so there hasn’t been any panic in the market. But when you do see some rebalancing here, Ty, and you see some gaps on the chart back in fill, which I think is going to happen in NVIDIA down to 680 and even down to 400. And meta, I think that’s the repricing I’m talking about because in the bigger picture, I’m coming up for air. Hold on, when the bigger picture we’re seeing the S&P 500 tie only down a little over 4% and you saw that balance once again today. All right, let’s talk about the fact that you’ve got, you’ve got some improvement in the major indexes over the last couple of hours. Does that tell you anything? It it does. It speaks to the volumes that there’s so much cash on the sideline. But one thing it doesn’t tell me is that these rates, the 10 year note, you know, go back to my bond leadership where I cut my teeth in the business trading 30 year and 10 year futures in Chicago. The fact of the matter, the 10 year note of 4.7%, there’s been a lag effect, there’s almost been a dislocation. So I think this bounce back could be a little misguided due to the fact that we’re just moving money. It’s almost like an accounting Ledger. Oh, Facebook is going to spend $5 billion more on AI. All that goes into chips, you know, and I know that’s not true. There’s people involved, there’s building involved. There’s a variety of different expenses that go to that capax for Facebook or meta on this extra 5 billion. So I think when you see in sell up 1 1/2 percent, AMD up 1%, of course NVIDIA the big winner. I think this is an opportunity to put some more protection. I own puts and at some moment in time here as we get further down, I will be selling puts to add to exposure. But right here, right now I’m a little apprehensive and I’m using the bond market to give me that apprehension. Yeah, I I guess what I would say here is what looked like it could have been not a a catastrophic day, a disaster. It looked like a now it’s looking really rather more like a, a pretty routine run-of-the-mill day where the market has go ahead. That’s right, Ty. We’re conditioned to that we buy this dip and I think going back to the last 10 years, we’ve been conditioned to buy the dip. But I think it’s very normal. You see a temper correction every year. So you see three or four or 5% corrections. So I think this correction is just in the process. It’s only been three weeks. But the way we look at markets, everything is so exaggerated. The reaction to Facebook exaggerated, the movement higher in the last five months, S&P 500 being up 25% exaggerated. So I think we have to be calm, be resolute, but understand that the market has the ability to move lower as the VIX potentially goes above 25. So we would love, we would wish you were here today because I know some people you know or admire here. Eddie George, a great running Nashville, great guy and Austin Eckler of the NFL now with the commanders, will join us for the stock draft, which is going to kick off right after this. Jeff Kilberg, thanks very much. Awesome.